My analysis of British local by-elections from 15/8/19 and 22/8/19

Readers, the results of British local by-elections on 15 August 2019 and 22 August 2019 (one apiece) were as follows:

(15/08/19):

Shropshire UA, Meole: Conservative 438 (37.6%, -17.8%), Liberal Democrats 309 (26.5%, +14.4%), Labour 286 (24.6%, -2.9%), Green 131 (11.3%, +6.3%).

(22/08/19):

Rugby BC, Rokeby & Overslade: Liberal Democrats 963 (56.1%, -7.0%), Conservative 346 (20.1%, +1.8%), Labour 165 (9.6%, -8.8%), Brexit 163 (9.5%), Green 79 (4.6%). All changes are since May 2019.

The county council elections of 2017, and unitary authority elections for former county councils of which Shropshire is one (alongside Cornwall, Durham, Northumberland and Wiltshire) were good for the Conservatives generally, so the 16% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat in the prosperous and well-educated Meole ward is not surprising, since these types of wards will experience the strongest swings away from the Conservatives in the current political climate.

Meanwhile in Rugby, the small swing to the Conservatives was blunted to 4.4% by the Brexit Party even though that party came a poor fourth behind Labour. It is mainly a recovery from the low point in May 2019, where as I mentioned earlier the Conservatives lost more than 1800 council seats and strongholds such as Arun and Cheshire East. Turnout remained buoyant despite many voters being on holiday; in fact I was on holiday last week myself.

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