Dodds dislodges daft Davies in Brecon and Radnorshire by-election
Readers, the results of the Brecon & Radnorshire by-election were as follows:
Chris Davies, Conservative, 12,401 (38.9%, -9.6%)
Tom Davies, Labour, 1,680 (5.3%, -12.5%)
Jane Dodds, Liberal Democrats, 13,826 (43.5%, +14.4%)
Des Parkinson, Brexit Party, 3,331 (10.5%)
Liz Phillips, UKIP, 242 (0.8%, -0.6%)
Lady Lily the Pink, OMRLP, 334 (1.0%).
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.
It is clear that the Conservatives brought this by-election loss on themselves, irrespective of any "Boris bounce" hype, which proved to be just hype. It was Chris Davies' conviction for false expenses claims that caused this by-election to happen at all, and reselecting him after he had been successfully recalled doomed the Conservatives from the outset.
Brexit became the overriding issue in this by-election, mainly due to Brecon & Radnorshire being the most rural and agricultural constituency in England & Wales, with no towns having a population of 10,000 people or more. A no-deal Brexit will cause commensurate damage to the livelihoods of farmers in this constituency since it will result in unfavourable tariffs from the EU, potentially making agricultural exports unviable. If you want to find evidence of the "Bregretter" phenomenon, you can find it here. This not only helped the Liberal Democrats to win despite the fact Jane Dodds did not live in the constituency (but rather in neighbouring Montgomeryshire, which has similar characteristics to Brecon & Radnorshire), but it also depressed the Brexit Party, although in 2015 Brecon & Radnorshire also recorded the third lowest UKIP vote share in Wales, and the lowest outside Cardiff that year.
The Labour squeeze was as expected, given how strongly tactical voting played its part in this by-election, to the point where neither the Green Party nor Plaid Cymru fielded a candidate in this by-election; this was the first Welsh by-election without any Plaid Cymru candidate since the Abertillery by-election of 1950. Also, Labour have not been competitive in this constituency for many years. UKIP, meanwhile, essentially made redundant by the Brexit Party, finished in last place and 92 votes behind the Monster Raving Loony Party. This could prove to be their continuity SDP moment-when the continuity SDP famously finished 257 votes behind Screaming Lord Sutch in the 1990 Bootle by-election, they dissolved just days later. Unlike the continuity SDP of the day, which had 3 MPs at the time of the Bootle by-election, UKIP has no MPs, no MEPs, and barely a handful of councillors. There is a chance UKIP may simply fold into the Brexit Party by the end of the year.
I predicted a Liberal Democrat majority of approximately 2000 and in the end it was only 1,425, despite a Liberal Democrat gain being cited as a foregone conclusion by almost every political commentator, and the swing to the Liberal Democrats was only 12% although rural constituencies usually have lower swings than urban constituencies. The low turnout can be attributed to not only the fact that it is holiday season but also the downpour and abstentions from some Plaid Cymru and Green voters in a by-election where neither of those parties was standing, even accounting for the fact Plaid Cymru have never even saved their deposit in Brecon & Radnorshire. The Conservatives' ability to blunt the hard Brexit vote upon Boris Johnson becoming Prime Minister only narrowed the margin of the Liberal Democrats' victory. This by-election has not only given the Liberal Democrats parliamentary representation in Wales again (which they lost in 2017 when they lost Ceredigion to Plaid Cymru) but more importantly it has reduced the working government majority to just 1, and it is highly probable that at least one Conservative MP will defect to the Liberal Democrats in the next few months, meaning that Boris Johnson's tenure as Prime Minister may be shorter than that of Alec Douglas-Home, so far the only Prime Minister in the era of universal suffrage in Britain to have been PM for less than one year.
There were also two local by-elections happening elsewhere on the same day, and these were the results:
Huntingdonshire DC, Godmanchester & Hemingford Abbots: Liberal Democrats 929 (48.2%, -3.5%), Conservative 666 (34.5%, +2.9%), Independent 333 (17.3%). [Labour did not stand]
Stockport MBC, Hazel Grove: Liberal Democrats 1401 (45.7%, -2.0%), Conservative 1194 (38.9%, +9.6%), Labour 329 (10.7%, -0.2%), Green 142 (4.6%, +0.3%). All changes are since May 2019 [UKIP did not stand].
In contrast to the Brecon & Radnorshire by-election, both local by-elections showed swings to the Conservatives and not to the Liberal Democrats, despite both of the wards in question being competitive only between those two parties, even if the swings were only 3.2% and 5.8% respectively. Unlike last week, the Brexit Party did not stand in either by-election, indirectly helping the Conservatives since there were also no UKIP candidates. Also, since many electors are on holiday at the moment, low turnouts impact on the by-election swings. There is clearly neither a Boris bounce nor a Swinson bounce of any significance.
Chris Davies, Conservative, 12,401 (38.9%, -9.6%)
Tom Davies, Labour, 1,680 (5.3%, -12.5%)
Jane Dodds, Liberal Democrats, 13,826 (43.5%, +14.4%)
Des Parkinson, Brexit Party, 3,331 (10.5%)
Liz Phillips, UKIP, 242 (0.8%, -0.6%)
Lady Lily the Pink, OMRLP, 334 (1.0%).
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.
It is clear that the Conservatives brought this by-election loss on themselves, irrespective of any "Boris bounce" hype, which proved to be just hype. It was Chris Davies' conviction for false expenses claims that caused this by-election to happen at all, and reselecting him after he had been successfully recalled doomed the Conservatives from the outset.
Brexit became the overriding issue in this by-election, mainly due to Brecon & Radnorshire being the most rural and agricultural constituency in England & Wales, with no towns having a population of 10,000 people or more. A no-deal Brexit will cause commensurate damage to the livelihoods of farmers in this constituency since it will result in unfavourable tariffs from the EU, potentially making agricultural exports unviable. If you want to find evidence of the "Bregretter" phenomenon, you can find it here. This not only helped the Liberal Democrats to win despite the fact Jane Dodds did not live in the constituency (but rather in neighbouring Montgomeryshire, which has similar characteristics to Brecon & Radnorshire), but it also depressed the Brexit Party, although in 2015 Brecon & Radnorshire also recorded the third lowest UKIP vote share in Wales, and the lowest outside Cardiff that year.
The Labour squeeze was as expected, given how strongly tactical voting played its part in this by-election, to the point where neither the Green Party nor Plaid Cymru fielded a candidate in this by-election; this was the first Welsh by-election without any Plaid Cymru candidate since the Abertillery by-election of 1950. Also, Labour have not been competitive in this constituency for many years. UKIP, meanwhile, essentially made redundant by the Brexit Party, finished in last place and 92 votes behind the Monster Raving Loony Party. This could prove to be their continuity SDP moment-when the continuity SDP famously finished 257 votes behind Screaming Lord Sutch in the 1990 Bootle by-election, they dissolved just days later. Unlike the continuity SDP of the day, which had 3 MPs at the time of the Bootle by-election, UKIP has no MPs, no MEPs, and barely a handful of councillors. There is a chance UKIP may simply fold into the Brexit Party by the end of the year.
I predicted a Liberal Democrat majority of approximately 2000 and in the end it was only 1,425, despite a Liberal Democrat gain being cited as a foregone conclusion by almost every political commentator, and the swing to the Liberal Democrats was only 12% although rural constituencies usually have lower swings than urban constituencies. The low turnout can be attributed to not only the fact that it is holiday season but also the downpour and abstentions from some Plaid Cymru and Green voters in a by-election where neither of those parties was standing, even accounting for the fact Plaid Cymru have never even saved their deposit in Brecon & Radnorshire. The Conservatives' ability to blunt the hard Brexit vote upon Boris Johnson becoming Prime Minister only narrowed the margin of the Liberal Democrats' victory. This by-election has not only given the Liberal Democrats parliamentary representation in Wales again (which they lost in 2017 when they lost Ceredigion to Plaid Cymru) but more importantly it has reduced the working government majority to just 1, and it is highly probable that at least one Conservative MP will defect to the Liberal Democrats in the next few months, meaning that Boris Johnson's tenure as Prime Minister may be shorter than that of Alec Douglas-Home, so far the only Prime Minister in the era of universal suffrage in Britain to have been PM for less than one year.
There were also two local by-elections happening elsewhere on the same day, and these were the results:
Huntingdonshire DC, Godmanchester & Hemingford Abbots: Liberal Democrats 929 (48.2%, -3.5%), Conservative 666 (34.5%, +2.9%), Independent 333 (17.3%). [Labour did not stand]
Stockport MBC, Hazel Grove: Liberal Democrats 1401 (45.7%, -2.0%), Conservative 1194 (38.9%, +9.6%), Labour 329 (10.7%, -0.2%), Green 142 (4.6%, +0.3%). All changes are since May 2019 [UKIP did not stand].
In contrast to the Brecon & Radnorshire by-election, both local by-elections showed swings to the Conservatives and not to the Liberal Democrats, despite both of the wards in question being competitive only between those two parties, even if the swings were only 3.2% and 5.8% respectively. Unlike last week, the Brexit Party did not stand in either by-election, indirectly helping the Conservatives since there were also no UKIP candidates. Also, since many electors are on holiday at the moment, low turnouts impact on the by-election swings. There is clearly neither a Boris bounce nor a Swinson bounce of any significance.
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