My analysis of British local by-elections of 29/8/19, the Shetland (Scottish Parliament) by-election, and how to help thwart a no deal Brexit
Readers, the results of British local by-elections held on 29 August 2019 were as follows:
Bolton MBC, Radcliffe West: Radcliffe First 824 (41.7%), Labour 708 (35.8%, -24.7%), Conservative 283 (14.3%,-10.7%), Liberal Democrats 113 (5.7%, +2.7%), UKIP 50 (2.5%). Radcliffe First gain from Labour; all changes are since May 2019.
South Lanarkshire UA, East Kilbride Central North (1st preferences): SNP 1582 (46.5%, +4.2%), Labour 690 (20.3%, -11.3%), Conservative 498 (14.6%, -4.1%), Liberal Democrats 422 (12.4%, +9.9%), Green 153 (4.5%, +0.6%), UKIP 48 (1.4%), Libertarian 12 (0.4%). SNP elected at stage 5.
There was also a Scottish Parliament by-election on the island of Shetland (for Scottish Parliament purposes Orkney is a separate constituency, even though Orkney & Shetland form a single Westminster parliamentary constituency) whose results were as follows:
John Adamson, Labour, 152 (1.3%, -4.6%)
Brydon Goodlad, Conservative, 425 (3.6%, -0.1%)
Stuart Martin, UKIP, 60 (0.5%)
Debra Nicolson, Scottish Green Party, 189 (1.6%)
Ian Scott, Independent, 66 (0.6%)
Michael Stout, Independent, 134 (1.1%)
Peter Tait, Independent, 31 (0.3%)
Ryan Thomson, Independent, 1,286 (10.9%)
Beatrice Wishart, Liberal Democrats, 5,659 (47.9%, -19.5%)
Tom Willis, SNP, 3,822 (32.3%, +9.3%)
Unusually for a parliamentary by-election, especially considering for the fact it was a Scottish Parliament by-election, turnout rose by 4.3% to 66.4%. The number of candidates in this by-election was partly responsible, but the main factor was the SNP's efforts in the campaign, which whilst achieving 14.4% swing from Liberal Democrat to SNP did not come close to winning this safest of Liberal Democrat seats, despite the loss of the personal vote of former Scottish Liberal Democrats leader Tavish Scott, who resigned his Scottish Parliament seat to take up a role at Scottish Rugby. This is also the first (devolved) parliamentary by-election in history where both the Conservatives and Labour lost their deposits, with Labour also finishing behind the Scottish Green Party. Shetland Islands Councillor Ryan Thomson finished a good third but found himself squeezed by the SNP and Liberal Democrat campaigns despite the excellent result he achieved in the Shetland Islands council election of 2017.
The rise of local independents had form in Bury's by-election as well, following a pattern of Independent gains in former industrial and mining communities north of the Watford Gap, and Labour has much more to lose than the Conservatives do in these scenarios. It is therefore no surprise that Radcliffe First, despite not having stood in the preceding election, won Radcliffe West from Labour with relative ease, squeezing the Conservative vote to proportionally a similar extent. These considerations will become important at a parliamentary level as well even in circumstances when the localist independents do not stand at a parliamentary level, as shown in Mansfield for example.
As for the by-election in East Kilbride Central North, the SNP have been recovering well due to the Brexit divide and Boris Johnson's destructive plans for forcing through a no deal Brexit. A good Liberal Democrat performance did hinder the SNP somewhat, but an SNP win was almost certain here in any case. I will note here that Ruth Davidson's announcement that she will step down as leader of the Scottish Conservatives did not have any notable impact on the result, as the announcement came too late to impact on the outcome and the Scottish Conservatives were not in a position to win that by-election.
The granting of Boris Johnson's wish to prorogue Parliament for five weeks from 9th September to 14th October leaves little time to thwart a no deal Brexit-but there is still time to take action. Write to your MP ASAP and attend one of tomorrow's marches against the proroguing of Parliament (or organise one in your area if there is not one nearby).
Bolton MBC, Radcliffe West: Radcliffe First 824 (41.7%), Labour 708 (35.8%, -24.7%), Conservative 283 (14.3%,-10.7%), Liberal Democrats 113 (5.7%, +2.7%), UKIP 50 (2.5%). Radcliffe First gain from Labour; all changes are since May 2019.
South Lanarkshire UA, East Kilbride Central North (1st preferences): SNP 1582 (46.5%, +4.2%), Labour 690 (20.3%, -11.3%), Conservative 498 (14.6%, -4.1%), Liberal Democrats 422 (12.4%, +9.9%), Green 153 (4.5%, +0.6%), UKIP 48 (1.4%), Libertarian 12 (0.4%). SNP elected at stage 5.
There was also a Scottish Parliament by-election on the island of Shetland (for Scottish Parliament purposes Orkney is a separate constituency, even though Orkney & Shetland form a single Westminster parliamentary constituency) whose results were as follows:
John Adamson, Labour, 152 (1.3%, -4.6%)
Brydon Goodlad, Conservative, 425 (3.6%, -0.1%)
Stuart Martin, UKIP, 60 (0.5%)
Debra Nicolson, Scottish Green Party, 189 (1.6%)
Ian Scott, Independent, 66 (0.6%)
Michael Stout, Independent, 134 (1.1%)
Peter Tait, Independent, 31 (0.3%)
Ryan Thomson, Independent, 1,286 (10.9%)
Beatrice Wishart, Liberal Democrats, 5,659 (47.9%, -19.5%)
Tom Willis, SNP, 3,822 (32.3%, +9.3%)
Unusually for a parliamentary by-election, especially considering for the fact it was a Scottish Parliament by-election, turnout rose by 4.3% to 66.4%. The number of candidates in this by-election was partly responsible, but the main factor was the SNP's efforts in the campaign, which whilst achieving 14.4% swing from Liberal Democrat to SNP did not come close to winning this safest of Liberal Democrat seats, despite the loss of the personal vote of former Scottish Liberal Democrats leader Tavish Scott, who resigned his Scottish Parliament seat to take up a role at Scottish Rugby. This is also the first (devolved) parliamentary by-election in history where both the Conservatives and Labour lost their deposits, with Labour also finishing behind the Scottish Green Party. Shetland Islands Councillor Ryan Thomson finished a good third but found himself squeezed by the SNP and Liberal Democrat campaigns despite the excellent result he achieved in the Shetland Islands council election of 2017.
The rise of local independents had form in Bury's by-election as well, following a pattern of Independent gains in former industrial and mining communities north of the Watford Gap, and Labour has much more to lose than the Conservatives do in these scenarios. It is therefore no surprise that Radcliffe First, despite not having stood in the preceding election, won Radcliffe West from Labour with relative ease, squeezing the Conservative vote to proportionally a similar extent. These considerations will become important at a parliamentary level as well even in circumstances when the localist independents do not stand at a parliamentary level, as shown in Mansfield for example.
As for the by-election in East Kilbride Central North, the SNP have been recovering well due to the Brexit divide and Boris Johnson's destructive plans for forcing through a no deal Brexit. A good Liberal Democrat performance did hinder the SNP somewhat, but an SNP win was almost certain here in any case. I will note here that Ruth Davidson's announcement that she will step down as leader of the Scottish Conservatives did not have any notable impact on the result, as the announcement came too late to impact on the outcome and the Scottish Conservatives were not in a position to win that by-election.
The granting of Boris Johnson's wish to prorogue Parliament for five weeks from 9th September to 14th October leaves little time to thwart a no deal Brexit-but there is still time to take action. Write to your MP ASAP and attend one of tomorrow's marches against the proroguing of Parliament (or organise one in your area if there is not one nearby).
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