My analysis of British local by-elections from 21/2/19 and other thoughts

Readers, the results of yesterday's British local by-elections were as follows:

Cardiff UA, Ely: Plaid Cymru 831 (43.1%, +17.6%), Labour 776 (40.4%, -8.4%), Conservative 271 (14.2%, -4.0%), Liberal Democrats 46 (2.4%, -2.9%). Plaid Cymru gain from Labour.

Northamptonshire CC, Oundle: Conservative 1864 (51.3%, -14.3%), Liberal Democrats 1276 (35.1%, +24.6%), Labour 403 (11.1%, -12.9%), UKIP 89 (2.5%).

The formation of The Independent Group earlier this week from 8 Labour MPs and 3 Conservative MPs (NB: Ian Austin, who resigned from the Labour Party earlier today, will not be joining that group), hit both Labour and the Conservatives hard, to the point where Plaid Cymru made a surprise gain of Ely ward, one of the few wards in Cardiff with any significant Welsh-speaking population. This gain was aided by neighbouring councillor Neil McAvoy, who is currently suspended from Plaid Cymru for misconduct; his suspension ends this September. Plaid Cymru has been faring better against Labour since former MP for Carmarthen East & Dinefwr, Adam Price, became its leader in 2018.

Solidly Conservative Oundle, famous for its prestigious and ancient independent school, experienced a surprisingly large swing to the Liberal Democrats of 19.5% even though the Liberal Democrats have little presence in East Northamptonshire, normally a Conservative-Labour battleground like its neighbour, Corby. With Northamptonshire's district council elections having been cancelled, this may be the last ever by-election taking place in Northamptonshire under the current setup; it will be replaced by two new unitary authorities in May 2020.

On Tuesday, it was announced that Sajid Javid, the Home Secretary, had revoked Shamima Begum's British citizenship even though she is not a dual national. Making someone stateless is illegal under international law and in all circumstances. The correct solution is for Shamima Begum to be quickly extradited back to Britain from Syria to face trial over her involvement with terrorist groups; she must face swift and firm justice for what she has done.

This blog post features a special double tribute. This double tribute is to firstly Wallace Broecker, the scientist famed for coining the term "global warming" to describe the man-made increase in planetary temperature that threatens humanity's survival long term, died on Wednesday aged 87. It is also secondly to Monkees guitarist Peter Tork, later also famous for being diagnosed as autistic, who died yesterday aged 77.

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