My analysis of British local by-elections from 7/2/19 and other thoughts
Readers, the results of British local by-elections held this week were as follows:
Bradford MBC, Bolton & Undercliffe: Liberal Democrats 1733 (51.3%, +9.0%),Labour 1153 (34.1%, -10.6%), Conservative 418 (12.4%, +2.4%), Green 73 (2.2%, -0.8%). Liberal Democrat gain from Labour; all changes are since May 2018.
Buckinghamshire CC, Totteridge & Bowdean: Labour* 978 (40.8%, +15.5%), East Wycombe Independent 668 (27.8%, -12.1%), Liberal Democrats 508 (21.2%, +6.4%), Conservative 245 (10.2%, -9.8%). Labour gain from East Wycombe Independent.
Lambeth LBC, Thornton: Labour 1154 (44.7%, -19.0%), Liberal Democrats 845 (32.8%, +23.5%), Green 251 (9.7%, -1.1%), Conservative 247 (9.6%, -6.5%), WEP 46 (1.8%), UKIP 36 (1.4%).
Tower Hamlets LBC, Lansbury: Labour 1308 (40.8%, -0.3%), Aspire 1002 (31.3%, +8.6%), Liberal Democrats 290 (9.0%, +0.4%),UKIP 176 (5.5%), Conservative 175 (5.5%, -1.8%), Green 166 (5.2%, -2.3%), House Party 89 (2.8%). [People's Alliance for Tower Hamlets and Independent did not stand]
Tower Hamlets LBC, Shadwell: Aspire 1012 (34.8%, +16.1%), Labour 914 (31.5%, -0.3%), Liberal Democrats** 484 (16.7%, +12.6%), Conservative 185 (6.4%, +2.1%), Green 125 (4.3%, +0.1%),Independent (Gous-Miah) 119 (4.1%), WEP 65 (2.2%).Aspire gain from Labour [People's Alliance for Tower Hamlets did not stand]
Wokingham UA, Evendons: Liberal Democrats 1441 (63.1%, +16.3%), Conservative 729 (31.9%, -8.8%), Labour 115 (5.0%,-7.5%).All changes are since May 2018.
*The Labour candidate for Totteridge & Bowdean, Israr Rashid, was suspended from the Labour Party after nominations closed over alleged election offences which he was arrested for shortly before polling day.
**The Liberal Democrat candidate for Shadwell, former Respect councillor Abjol Miah, was suspended from the Liberal Democrats after nominations closed for sharing anti-Semitic content.
The Liberal Democrat gain from Labour in Bolton & Undercliffe was a foregone conclusion and it represents how much the urban Corbynite surge has waned in marginal wards, even with a swing of only 9.8% to the Liberal Democrats. The "Labour gain" in Buckinghamshire, despite their candidate being suspended from the party before polling day, still occurred and was predicted to occur because the East Wycombe Independents depended strongly on personal votes and were created due to an internal local split within the local Labour group.
Meanwhile in Lambeth, the Green Party, despite being the official opposition on Lambeth Borough Council, ended up being squeezed by the Liberal Democrats, although the Conservatives suffered a bigger squeeze . This can only be attributable to a pro-EU swing against Labour, 21.2% in this case. Thornton ward is part of the Streatham constituency, known for its pro-Remain MP Chuka Umunna and having an estimated Remain vote of 75% in the EU membership referendum. Its high proportion of graduates (nearly 48% of its population) and low owner-occupation levels (just 38.8% and in the bottom decile for home ownership) inflated the swing as well.
Within Tower Hamlets, the People's Alliance for Tower Hamlets, one of the two groups (along with Aspire) that emerged from the ashes of Tower Hamlets First after it was deregistered and after Lutfur Rahman was removed from office for corruption and electoral fraud, has been dissolved. Its only elected councillor, Rabina Khan, is now a Liberal Democrat councillor in Tower Hamlets. The disappearance of PATH proved crucial to Aspire's gain of Shadwell ward; in 2018 vote-splitting between the two groups resulted in a Labour landslide with Labour winning 42 out of 45 seats on Tower Hamlets Borough Council last year. The effect of their base reuniting is more evident in the fact that the Labour candidates in both Lansbury and Shadwell wards only saw a 0.3% decrease in their vote share. The Lansbury Estate, however, helped Labour's base hold up due to council tenants voting Labour by default in London, irrespective of other factors. Abjol Miah's suspension from the Liberal Democrats before polling day did not blunt his performance in a council where personality and community politics are so dominant at a local level.
The fact that a no deal Brexit, or a bad Brexit deal, will hit house prices hard in the London commuter belt was a key factor in the 12.5% swing achieved by the Liberal Democrats in Evendons, Wokingham, less than one hour's commute from Greater London. Tactical voting by Labour voters also proved important in a key Conservative-Liberal Democrat marginal such as this.
It was also recently announced that Alan Turing, the man responsible for cracking the Enigma code which proved vital to an Allied victory in World War II, has been named the greatest global icon of the 20th century: https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/tv/reviews/icons-alan-turing-bbc2-review-greatest-figure-twentieth-century-mandela-bowie-a8765021.html I give my thanks to naturalist and presenter Chris Packham for helping ensure he got that recognition. I believe Alan Turing was on the autistic spectrum, and as an autistic person myself I highly commend this award.
Bradford MBC, Bolton & Undercliffe: Liberal Democrats 1733 (51.3%, +9.0%),Labour 1153 (34.1%, -10.6%), Conservative 418 (12.4%, +2.4%), Green 73 (2.2%, -0.8%). Liberal Democrat gain from Labour; all changes are since May 2018.
Buckinghamshire CC, Totteridge & Bowdean: Labour* 978 (40.8%, +15.5%), East Wycombe Independent 668 (27.8%, -12.1%), Liberal Democrats 508 (21.2%, +6.4%), Conservative 245 (10.2%, -9.8%). Labour gain from East Wycombe Independent.
Lambeth LBC, Thornton: Labour 1154 (44.7%, -19.0%), Liberal Democrats 845 (32.8%, +23.5%), Green 251 (9.7%, -1.1%), Conservative 247 (9.6%, -6.5%), WEP 46 (1.8%), UKIP 36 (1.4%).
Tower Hamlets LBC, Lansbury: Labour 1308 (40.8%, -0.3%), Aspire 1002 (31.3%, +8.6%), Liberal Democrats 290 (9.0%, +0.4%),UKIP 176 (5.5%), Conservative 175 (5.5%, -1.8%), Green 166 (5.2%, -2.3%), House Party 89 (2.8%). [People's Alliance for Tower Hamlets and Independent did not stand]
Tower Hamlets LBC, Shadwell: Aspire 1012 (34.8%, +16.1%), Labour 914 (31.5%, -0.3%), Liberal Democrats** 484 (16.7%, +12.6%), Conservative 185 (6.4%, +2.1%), Green 125 (4.3%, +0.1%),Independent (Gous-Miah) 119 (4.1%), WEP 65 (2.2%).Aspire gain from Labour [People's Alliance for Tower Hamlets did not stand]
Wokingham UA, Evendons: Liberal Democrats 1441 (63.1%, +16.3%), Conservative 729 (31.9%, -8.8%), Labour 115 (5.0%,-7.5%).All changes are since May 2018.
*The Labour candidate for Totteridge & Bowdean, Israr Rashid, was suspended from the Labour Party after nominations closed over alleged election offences which he was arrested for shortly before polling day.
**The Liberal Democrat candidate for Shadwell, former Respect councillor Abjol Miah, was suspended from the Liberal Democrats after nominations closed for sharing anti-Semitic content.
The Liberal Democrat gain from Labour in Bolton & Undercliffe was a foregone conclusion and it represents how much the urban Corbynite surge has waned in marginal wards, even with a swing of only 9.8% to the Liberal Democrats. The "Labour gain" in Buckinghamshire, despite their candidate being suspended from the party before polling day, still occurred and was predicted to occur because the East Wycombe Independents depended strongly on personal votes and were created due to an internal local split within the local Labour group.
Meanwhile in Lambeth, the Green Party, despite being the official opposition on Lambeth Borough Council, ended up being squeezed by the Liberal Democrats, although the Conservatives suffered a bigger squeeze . This can only be attributable to a pro-EU swing against Labour, 21.2% in this case. Thornton ward is part of the Streatham constituency, known for its pro-Remain MP Chuka Umunna and having an estimated Remain vote of 75% in the EU membership referendum. Its high proportion of graduates (nearly 48% of its population) and low owner-occupation levels (just 38.8% and in the bottom decile for home ownership) inflated the swing as well.
Within Tower Hamlets, the People's Alliance for Tower Hamlets, one of the two groups (along with Aspire) that emerged from the ashes of Tower Hamlets First after it was deregistered and after Lutfur Rahman was removed from office for corruption and electoral fraud, has been dissolved. Its only elected councillor, Rabina Khan, is now a Liberal Democrat councillor in Tower Hamlets. The disappearance of PATH proved crucial to Aspire's gain of Shadwell ward; in 2018 vote-splitting between the two groups resulted in a Labour landslide with Labour winning 42 out of 45 seats on Tower Hamlets Borough Council last year. The effect of their base reuniting is more evident in the fact that the Labour candidates in both Lansbury and Shadwell wards only saw a 0.3% decrease in their vote share. The Lansbury Estate, however, helped Labour's base hold up due to council tenants voting Labour by default in London, irrespective of other factors. Abjol Miah's suspension from the Liberal Democrats before polling day did not blunt his performance in a council where personality and community politics are so dominant at a local level.
The fact that a no deal Brexit, or a bad Brexit deal, will hit house prices hard in the London commuter belt was a key factor in the 12.5% swing achieved by the Liberal Democrats in Evendons, Wokingham, less than one hour's commute from Greater London. Tactical voting by Labour voters also proved important in a key Conservative-Liberal Democrat marginal such as this.
It was also recently announced that Alan Turing, the man responsible for cracking the Enigma code which proved vital to an Allied victory in World War II, has been named the greatest global icon of the 20th century: https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/tv/reviews/icons-alan-turing-bbc2-review-greatest-figure-twentieth-century-mandela-bowie-a8765021.html I give my thanks to naturalist and presenter Chris Packham for helping ensure he got that recognition. I believe Alan Turing was on the autistic spectrum, and as an autistic person myself I highly commend this award.
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