My analysis of the Warlingham by-election, Surrey, and why the Brexit amendments could stick us in a vicious circle

Readers, the result of the Warlingham by-election, the sole British local by-election this week and the first in 3 weeks, were as follows:

Surrey CC, Warlingham: Conservative 1199 (48.1%, -8.1%), Liberal Democrats 990 (39.7%, +10.8%), UKIP 176 (7.1%, -2.9%), Labour 126 (5.1%, +0.3%).

Surrey as a county has seen some shift to the Liberal Democrats in recent years as a result of Brexit chaos, especially from its comfortable commuter population who fear for their long term prospects post-Brexit. However, the wealthier parts of the division, containing million pound houses often owned by retirees with gold-plated pensions (e.g. former company directors), blunted the swing to just 9.4%, guaranteeing an easy Conservative hold in this safest of Conservative county council divisions.

Earlier this week, on Tuesday, Parliament debated several crucial amendments to the Brexit bill regarding the backstop, even though the EU has made it clear no renegotiation of the initial deal is possible. One unfortunate occurrence was when by a majority of just 23 (298 to 321), an amendment by Yvette Cooper (Labour MP for Normanton, Pontefract & Castleford) which would have prevented a no-deal Brexit was rejected, even though this happened minutes after an amendment by Dame Caroline Spelman (Conservative MP for Meriden) to not leave the EU without a deal of some type passed by a majority of 8 (318 to 310).This happened due to the rebellion of 14 Labour MPs (including my current MP, Gareth Snell), all of whom advocated for a Leave vote themselves and/or who represent traditionally working-class constituencies with a heavy Leave vote (both in John Mann's case, for example). Meanwhile, the majority of the Conservative rebels who could have allowed the amendment to pass were not only supporters of Remain but also most of them represented constituencies in the Home Counties not far from London where there is a strong affluent pro-European vote, and where normally high house prices could be hit hard by a no-deal Brexit. Unsurprisingly, a key rebel was once again Dominic Grieve, Conservative MP for Beaconsfield, one of the richest constituencies in the UK.

All in all, these recent votes will get Britain nowhere and with only eight weeks before the official withdrawal date. Even the backstop is unlikely to be renegotiated in time at this point. Given how bad the deal will be if Britain accepts it, it is clearly time to see sense and stop Brexit altogether. As the Independent and others have said, "Parliament voted to go round in circles": https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/editorials/brexit-no-deal-amendments-cooper-brady-parliament-backstop-a8753231.html




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