Alan's Green Thoughts

In my recent political analyses, I have frequently spoken of the effects of demographic change on political results. What is meant by that? Demographic change is when the composition of the population of a particular place, or in political terms a constituency, changes significantly and has a significant long-term impact on the socio-economic factors of the area in question. In politics, demographic change refers to changes in the type of voters within an area, which subsequently changes how the area votes in terms of political parties; this often happens within villages or towns absorbed into nearby cities and becoming suburbs of these cities, although many retain alternative traditions (e.g. Otley's Liberal/Liberal Democrat leanings after absorption into Leeds in 1974). The changes in religious beliefs of voters have also had a profound impact, especially where there was a substantial nonconformist (i.e. neither Anglican nor Catholic) vote within an area. The collapse of the Li...

Readers, the results of this week's British local by-elections are as follows: Cornwall UA, Bude: Liberal Democrats 1,010 (53.2%, +1.0%), Independent (Willingham) 475 (25.0%), Conservative 264 (13.9%, -24.2%), Labour 148 (7.4%, -1.9%). East Hertfordshire DC, Watton-at-Stone: Liberal Democrats 531 (67.0%), Conservative 238 (30.1%, -36.4%), Labour 23 (2.9%, -8.3%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative. Knowsley MBC, Halewood South: Labour 1,012 (51.6%, +5.8%), Independent (Swann) 778 (39.7%), Liberal Democrats 118 (6.0%), Conservative 54 (2.8%, -4.2%). All changes are since May. North Warwickshire DC, Newton Regis & Wharton: Conservative 451 (52.2%, +2.2%), Labour 413 (47.8%, +20.1%). Rushcliffe BC, Gotham: Conservative 355 (40.4%, -12.5%), Labour 275 (31.3%, +7.4%), Independent (Matthews)* 160 (18.2%), Liberal Democrats 63 (7.2%), Green 25 (2.8%). Wirral MBC, Bromborough: Labour 1,253 (47.1%, -14.0%), Conservative 749 (28.1%, +6.0%), Liberal Democrats 454 (17.1%, ...

Yesterday, former UN Secretary General and Noble Peace Prize winner Kofi Annan sadly passed away. Kofi Annan is notable as having been the first African Secretary General of the United Nations, and he took up this post in 1997. He then helped created the Millennium Development Goals, setting international targets for reducing child poverty, hunger, and thirst as much as possible. As the impact of man-made climate change becomes more serious, these Millennium Development Goals are becoming more critical to alleviate deprivation of all kinds. He also established The Global Fund to combat the spread of the HIV/AIDS epidemic and other infectious diseases; with those diseases becoming more and more resistant. In the middle of his term he was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for revitalising the UN, although in my personal opinion there is still considerable room for improvement in the United Nations' structures, especially regarding the excessive powers of the five permanent Security Cou...

Readers, the results of this week's British local by-elections (and the sole local by-election from last week) are as follows: (9/8/18): Cornwall UA, Newquay Treviglas: Conservative 363 (45.4%, +13.6%), Liberal Democrats 306 (38.2%, -30.0%), Labour 131 (16.4%). Conservative gain from Liberal Democrat. (16/8/18): Bury MBC, East:  Labour 1419 (64.2%, +4.9%), Conservative 557 (25.2%, -8.9%), UKIP 107 (4.8%), Green 77 (3.5%, -3.1%), Liberal Democrats 49 (2.2%). Neath Port Talbot UA, Gwynfi: Independent (Jones) 268 (57.8%, +13.8%), Plaid Cymru 73 (15.7%), Labour 60 (12.9%, -43.3%), Independent (Josh) 45 (9.7%), Independent (Paul) 14 (3.0%), Conservative 4 (0.9%). Independent gain from Labour. North Yorkshire CC, Knaresborough: Liberal Democrats 2051 (54.9%, +19.3%), Conservative 1313 (35.2%, -3.4%), Labour 369 (9.9%, -1.1%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative. Local politics in Britain is localised most of all in Cornwall, where the Conservatives captur...

It has been reported that as many as 112 constituencies which are estimated to have voted Leave, often by narrow margins, at the 2016 British EU membership referendum would now vote Remain if a referendum on the final deal was held before 29 March 2019, and this would certainly be enough to swing the result decisively, if narrowly, in Remain's favour. This crucially means a majority of constituencies would now vote in favour of remaining the EU-341 to 309. But why these 112, you may be asking? A careful look at the 112 in question (contained in this list): https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-seats-switch-remain-list-13070561  shows that only 98 would swing significantly; the margin which Leave won the referendum by was after all 3.8%. Of the 32 that would according to the research swing by 10 points or more to give a "Remain" result in a hypothetical second referendum, only one, Southampton Itchen, elected a Conservative MP in 2017 (Royston Smith, by 31 vote...

Readers, the results from British local by-elections of the last three weeks were as follows: (19/7/18): Bury MBC, Besses: Labour 999 (51.1%, -7.6%), Conservative 708 (36.2%, +16.2%), English Democrats 72 (3.7%, -7.8%), Liberal Democrats 71 (3.6%, -0.7%), Green 55 (2.8%, -2.6%), UKIP 49 (2.5%). All changes are since this 2016. Carmarthenshire UA, Saron: Plaid Cymru 747 (65.2%, +15.7%), Labour 239 (20.9%, -15.0%), Conservative 146 (12.7%, -1.9%), Liberal Democrats 14 (1.2%). Milton Keynes UA, Bletchley East: Labour 1355 (50.9%, +3.1%), Conservative 1026 (38.5%, -0.7%), Green 131 (4.9%, -3.1%), UKIP 101 (3.8%), Liberal Democrats 50 (1.9%, -3.1%). Northamptonshire CC, St George's: Labour 839 (44.6%, +4.3%), Liberal Democrats 564 (30.0%, +0.1%), Conservative 285 (15.1%, -7.2%), UKIP 111 (5.9%, -1.6%), Green 83 (4.4%). Oxford BC, Headington: Liberal Democrats 949 (60.9%, +1.2%), Labour 419 (26.9%, +3.2%), Conservative 124 (8.0%, -1.4%), Gre...