Alan's Green Thoughts

Normally, I deal with political analysis and psephology (the study of elections, voting patterns, and voter behaviour). However, the globally popular sport of football is definitely worthy of analysis, especially with the shock results we have seen so far in the 2018 World Cup in Russia and the fact it is certainly more competitive than politics in many countries. The second round of the 2018 World Cup will be one of the tightest in history, and one of the most difficult to predict correctly. Many good teams have not played up to scratch (and two of the best European football teams, from the Netherlands and Italy, did not even qualify this year, and I missed their presence), and several of those eliminated had very good chances but failed to seize the opportunity when they needed to, or failed to bolster their defence strongly enough, as seen by the number of own goals scored in this tournament so far and the number of injury-time goals in the group stage. In fact, of the 12...

The results of this week's British local by-elections were as follows: Leicestershire CC, Syston Ridgeway: Conservative 810 (59.7%, +2.1%), Labour 251 (18.5%, -2.3%), Liberal Democrats 149 (11.0%,+5.0%), Green 97 (7.2%, -1.3%), UKIP 49 (3.6%, -3.5%). North Devon DC, Fremington: Independent (Mackie) 577 (50.8%), Conservative 356 (31.3%, +16.6%), Liberal Democrats 119 (10.5%), Labour 65 (5.7%), Green 19 (1.7, -6.1%). Independent gain from former Independent. North Kesteven DC, North Hykeham Mill: Conservative 376 (49.7%, -9.7%), Lincolnshire Independents 171 (22.6%, -18.1%), Labour 167 (22.1%), Liberal Democrats 43 (5.7%). North Kesteven DC, Skellingthorpe: Lincolnshire Independents 348 (45.7%) , Conservative 201 (26.4%, +5.3%), Labour 129 (17.0%), Liberal Democrats 83 (10.9%, +5.8%). Lincolnshire Independents gain from Independent. It was independent candidates and Conservatives who performed well this week, although all four local by-elections this week were in very favou...

With increasing media censorship and governmental interference, the re-election of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, leader of the conservative and Islamic Justice and Development Party (AKP) was a foregone conclusion, even if there was a good chance he would have to go to the run-off round in order to win. Both the presidential election-only the second direct one ever in Turkey-and the general election were held simultaneously, ostensibly to ensure AKP would once again receive a secure majority and in the hope of ousting the progressive HDP from the Grand National Assembly of Turkey. Mr Erodgan managed to win the first round, but not by a true landslide. Despite widespread evidence of ballot box stuffing and other forms of electoral fraud, Mr Erodgan only managed 52.59% of the vote, which whilst enough to win straight away was an increase of a mere 0.8% on his 2014 result. The controversial constitutional referendum of 2017, which whilst increasing the number of ...

Readers, the results of local by-elections from this week, as well as last week (which I did not cover due to the time required for analysis of the more important Lewisham East parliamentary by-election) in England were as follows: (14/6/18): Doncaster MBC, Town: Labour 1084 (46.8%, +7.7%), Yorkshire Party 570 (24.6%, -1.1%), Green 294 (12.5%, -1.2%), Conservative 260 (11.4%, -10.2%), Liberal Democrats 66 (2.8%), Independent (Pendry) 43 (1.9%). Southwark LBC, London Bridge & West Bermondsey (deferred election): Liberal Democrats 1340/1281/1270 (44.4%), Labour 1239/1215/1171 (41.1%), Conservative 221/219/205 (7.3%), Green 215/191 (7.1%). Notional Liberal Democrat gain from Labour (new ward created for 2018 elections). (21/6/18): Brent LBC, Willesden Green (deferred election): Labour 1683/1679/1618 (67.2%, +24.2%), Green 289/256/250 (11.5%, -1.7%), Conservative 280/237/218 (11.2%, +4.2%), Liberal Democrats 254/189/184 (10.1%, -5.7%).   Basildon BC, Lee Chapel Nor...

Readers, in case you are not already aware, the results of the Lewisham East by-election were as follows: Rosamund Adoo-Kissi-Debrah, Green Party, 788 (3.6%, +1.9%) Ross Archer, Conservative, 3,161 (14.4%, -8.6%) Charles Carey (no description), 37 (0.1%) Janet Daby, Labour, 11,033 (50.2%, -17.7%) Massimo DiMambro, Democrats & Veterans, 67 (0.3%) Sean Finch, Libertarian Party, 38 (0.1%) Patrick Gray, Radical Party, 20 (0.1%) Thomas Hall, Young People's Party, 18 (0.1%) Alan "Howling Laud" Hope, OMRLP, 93 (0.4%) David Kurten, UKIP, 380 (1.7%, +0.0%) Maureen Martin, Christian Peoples' Alliance, 168 (0.8%, +0.3%) Mandu Reid, Women's Equality Party, 506 (2.3%) Lucy Salek, Liberal Democrats, 5,404 (24.6%, +20.2%) Anne-Marie Waters, For Britain Movement, 266 (1.2%) As expected from the beginning, Labour held the seat, although their quiescence on the key parts of the EU withdrawal bill, as well as the Liberal Democrats' campaigning a...

The Ontario general election of 2018, covering Canada's most populous province and the federal Canadian capital, Ottawa, brought an end to 15 years of Liberal dominance.  In fact, the Liberals polled so badly they won a grand total of just 7 seats, their lowest ever in the history of Ontario, and Premier Kathleen Wynne only held her riding of Don Valley West by 181 votes. A large number of Liberal MPPs (Members of the Provincial Parliament; equivalent to Assembly Member) finished third in many seats they won in 2014, even accounting for redistricting (the Canadian term for boundary changes). The Liberals' defeat is attributable to Kathleen's weak premiership, with her approval rating sinking to as low as 12% on occasion, and she made the serious mistake of conceding five days before polling day, when outgoing leaders only concede after polls have actually closed and exit polls have been published. Large seat drops for outgoing governing parties are par for the course in O...

Yesterday's Slovene general election delivered a result mirroring that of 2014 in some ways, but on a lesser scale. The liberal and pro-European Modern Centre Party (formerly the Party of Miro Cerar, who was Prime Minister of Slovenia from 2014 until today), suffered a crushing defeat, polling just 9.75% of the vote and 10 seats compared to the 34.61% and 36 seats it managed in 2014, and consequently it fell from a clear pole position to a miserable fourth behind the Social Democratic Party. The Social Democrats of Slovenia, especially due to the strong and solidified support for The Left (LEVICA, formerly United Left) have made no real recovery since their substantial losses in 2011, where they lost almost 2/3 of their seats and went from pole position to third. Their 2018 result of 9.92% is in fact worse than their 2011 result and they have only recovered the seats they lost in 2014. LEVICA, meanwhile, increased their seat total to 9, only one behind either SMC or the SD. The y...

The Green Party leadership election of 2018 is open, and this time I will be backing Andrew Cooper for Deputy Leader. Andrew has been a hard-working Green councillor in Newsome ward, Kirklees, for 20 years and has been an active Green Party member since 1988. He has also achieved excellent results in the constituency of Huddersfield, achieving one of the Green Party's best results in 2010, managing as much as 6.9% of the vote in 2015, ahead of the Liberal Democrats; he finished ahead of them again in 2017 and in UKIP's absence finished third that year, again with one of the best Green Party results that year.  He has also been a strident voice against fracking, which has been a serious threat in Yorkshire and Lancashire in particular. He can also reach out well to Green Party members of all types as well as to green-inclined voters. This, therefore, is why you should give him your first preference vote if you are a Green Party member. I will not be standing for...

The BBC series "A Very English Scandal" (based on the novel of the same name) focusing on the downfall of former Liberal Party leader Jeremy Thorpe, has been one of the most talked about British television programmes this year.   I have watched both episodes that have been broadcast thus far, and the show paints a relatively realistic picture about Jeremy Thorpe's perspective here. It is not surprising that Hugh Grant can play him so well-Mr Thorpe was educated at Eton and Oxford and qualified as a barrister, typical of the old British political elite that has now largely disappeared, and Hugh Grant was educated at Latymer Upper School (a prestigious private school in Hammersmith) and Oxford. Its portrayals of other figures in the story, however, are not nearly as careful or considerate-it overdoes the negativity on its portrayal of Norman Scott aka Norman Josiffe, and is largely one-sided, except for the scenes featuring Rinka, the dog killed within the story. Nowhere ...