My analysis of the Irish referendum on the 8th amendment
The vote to repeal the 8th amendment to the Constitution of Ireland was decisive-the voters of Ireland voted in favour of repeal by a margin of 66.4% to 33.6%, nearly a two-thirds majority, with a turnout of 64.1%.
With so much international attention, why was the turnout lower than the preceding Dail election of 2016?
Unlike the competitive Dail election of 2016, the result of this referendum was a foregone conclusion. At no point in the months leading up to this referendum did "No" ever take a lead in the polls; it was always considerably behind "Yes" regarding the question of repealing the 8th amendment. The 2012 death of Savita Halappanavar, a 31-year-old dentist originally from India, as a result of septicaemia stemming from a miscarriage was one of the key events that kickstarted a drive to repeal the overly restrictive amendment; Savita could not abort her unborn child,even though it was not viable and even though complications were causing sepsis, due to a foetal heartbeat still being present. The Protection in Life During Pregnancy Act 2013 was subsequently passed by the Oireachtas (Irish Parliament) in response; however it still did not allow abortions in cases where the unborn child had no chance of survival (e.g. in a case where the mother was declared brain dead whilst still pregnant), due to the fact that under the 8th amendment the law would have been unconstitutional at the time had this been the case.
The majority of deputies (Teachta Dailas, or TDs) were also in favour of repealing the amendment when the bill permitting the referendum was debated; only 32 deputies out of 147 voting (10 did not vote, and the Ceann Comhairle, who is the Irish equivalent of our own Speaker of the House of Commons), only votes if there is a tie) were against, most of them representing rural constituencies in Munster and Connaught, which are more socially conservative than Leinster and the Greater Dublin area.
Most parties with representation in the Dail were also in favour of a Yes vote, with Fine Gael and Fianna Fail taking a neutral stance due to their supporters being divided on the issue, depending on which county they lived in. The only two parties advocating a No vote were Renua Ireland, which has no representation in the Oireachtas, and the national conservative National Party which is not even officially registered. Other groups support
Another reason is that travelling abroad for abortions was expensive and took up large amounts of time for Irish women requiring it, especially since being an island travelling abroad from Ireland is only possible by ferry or aeroplane (abortions are still illegal in Northern Ireland so travelling there by road is out of the question for this purpose). Permitting necessary abortions in Ireland is therefore just safer and more economic.
How did the voters divide?
As expected, the capital city of Dublin was overwhelmingly in favour of repealing the 8th amendment. Dublin Bay South, where Irish Green Party leader Eamon Ryan is one the deputies, recorded the highest Yes vote with 78.49% although turnout was also the second lowest in the referendum at just 54.94%, only narrowly ahead of Dublin Central's dismal turnout of 51.73%. It was Dublin Fingal which recorded the highest proportion of the electorate voting for Yes, with just over 54% of the entire electorate of that constituency voting Yes. The other constituencies where more than 50% of the entire electorate (not just the voters who showed up to the polling station) voted in favour of repealing the 8th amendment were Dun Laoghaire, Dublin Rathdown, Dublin South West, Dublin Bay North, Dublin West, and surprisingly, Wicklow (the only one outside Dublin), which with a 74.48% turnout also had the highest turnout anywhere in the Republic of Ireland. Donegal (NB: parts of County Donegal are officially in the Sligo-Leitrim constituency) was the only constituency in Ireland to vote No, by a margin of 51.87% to 48.13%. Donegal is also the most isolated part of the Republic of Ireland, largely cut off by Northern Ireland except for a few roads via County Leitrim as it has no railway network at all. Unsurprisingly the other two counties of Ulster in the Republic of Ireland and not Northern Ireland, Cavan-Monaghan, gave the second lowest yes vote with only 55.46% voting Yes. The five counties of Connaught-Galway, Leitrim, Mayo, Roscommon and Sligo-all delivered below average Yes votes. Munster proved not particularly favourable towards repeal either, with only County Waterford delivering an above average Yes vote of 69.43% and three of Munster's Dail constituencies (Limerick County, Kerry, and Tipperary) were in the bottom 10 for Yes votes in the referendum. This divide almost mirrors that of the same sex marriage referendum which took place in Ireland back in 2015; the further away a Dail constituency was from Dublin, the greater the percentage of voters who were against the proposal.
What happens now?
The Oireachtas has proposed an abortion law for Ireland which, thankfully for pro-lifers like myself, is reasonably strict and will not allow frivolous abortions (i.e. abortions simply because the unborn child has a characteristic the mother does not like or simply because the mother changed her mind midway through the pregnancy); it will only allow abortions in medical emergencies or in cases where the unborn child will not survive and in those cases the absolute limit will be 24 weeks. However, mostly unrestricted abortions will be allowed for up to 12 weeks under the proposed abortion law , which many oppose and it is probable an amendment to remove that clause from the proposed law will pass given how many Fianna Fail deputies voted against allowing the referendum (21 out of 44) and the significant influence of Independents in the Dail. This law is likely to debated in the Dail no later than September 2018.
Will the referendum vote spark legalisation of abortion in Northern Ireland?
Not at present. The DUP and SDLP are resolutely opposed to extending the Abortion Act 1967 to Northern Ireland and attempts by the non-sectarian Alliance Party to amend the law to make it more reasonable (by allowing abortions in cases of fatal foetal abnormality) have failed. Given how strongly the outcome of Brexit negotiations and Brexit itself will impact Northern Ireland, and not just regarding the border either, this topic is not likely to come up on the agenda of the Stormont Assembly for at least another year.
With so much international attention, why was the turnout lower than the preceding Dail election of 2016?
Unlike the competitive Dail election of 2016, the result of this referendum was a foregone conclusion. At no point in the months leading up to this referendum did "No" ever take a lead in the polls; it was always considerably behind "Yes" regarding the question of repealing the 8th amendment. The 2012 death of Savita Halappanavar, a 31-year-old dentist originally from India, as a result of septicaemia stemming from a miscarriage was one of the key events that kickstarted a drive to repeal the overly restrictive amendment; Savita could not abort her unborn child,even though it was not viable and even though complications were causing sepsis, due to a foetal heartbeat still being present. The Protection in Life During Pregnancy Act 2013 was subsequently passed by the Oireachtas (Irish Parliament) in response; however it still did not allow abortions in cases where the unborn child had no chance of survival (e.g. in a case where the mother was declared brain dead whilst still pregnant), due to the fact that under the 8th amendment the law would have been unconstitutional at the time had this been the case.
The majority of deputies (Teachta Dailas, or TDs) were also in favour of repealing the amendment when the bill permitting the referendum was debated; only 32 deputies out of 147 voting (10 did not vote, and the Ceann Comhairle, who is the Irish equivalent of our own Speaker of the House of Commons), only votes if there is a tie) were against, most of them representing rural constituencies in Munster and Connaught, which are more socially conservative than Leinster and the Greater Dublin area.
Most parties with representation in the Dail were also in favour of a Yes vote, with Fine Gael and Fianna Fail taking a neutral stance due to their supporters being divided on the issue, depending on which county they lived in. The only two parties advocating a No vote were Renua Ireland, which has no representation in the Oireachtas, and the national conservative National Party which is not even officially registered. Other groups support
Another reason is that travelling abroad for abortions was expensive and took up large amounts of time for Irish women requiring it, especially since being an island travelling abroad from Ireland is only possible by ferry or aeroplane (abortions are still illegal in Northern Ireland so travelling there by road is out of the question for this purpose). Permitting necessary abortions in Ireland is therefore just safer and more economic.
How did the voters divide?
As expected, the capital city of Dublin was overwhelmingly in favour of repealing the 8th amendment. Dublin Bay South, where Irish Green Party leader Eamon Ryan is one the deputies, recorded the highest Yes vote with 78.49% although turnout was also the second lowest in the referendum at just 54.94%, only narrowly ahead of Dublin Central's dismal turnout of 51.73%. It was Dublin Fingal which recorded the highest proportion of the electorate voting for Yes, with just over 54% of the entire electorate of that constituency voting Yes. The other constituencies where more than 50% of the entire electorate (not just the voters who showed up to the polling station) voted in favour of repealing the 8th amendment were Dun Laoghaire, Dublin Rathdown, Dublin South West, Dublin Bay North, Dublin West, and surprisingly, Wicklow (the only one outside Dublin), which with a 74.48% turnout also had the highest turnout anywhere in the Republic of Ireland. Donegal (NB: parts of County Donegal are officially in the Sligo-Leitrim constituency) was the only constituency in Ireland to vote No, by a margin of 51.87% to 48.13%. Donegal is also the most isolated part of the Republic of Ireland, largely cut off by Northern Ireland except for a few roads via County Leitrim as it has no railway network at all. Unsurprisingly the other two counties of Ulster in the Republic of Ireland and not Northern Ireland, Cavan-Monaghan, gave the second lowest yes vote with only 55.46% voting Yes. The five counties of Connaught-Galway, Leitrim, Mayo, Roscommon and Sligo-all delivered below average Yes votes. Munster proved not particularly favourable towards repeal either, with only County Waterford delivering an above average Yes vote of 69.43% and three of Munster's Dail constituencies (Limerick County, Kerry, and Tipperary) were in the bottom 10 for Yes votes in the referendum. This divide almost mirrors that of the same sex marriage referendum which took place in Ireland back in 2015; the further away a Dail constituency was from Dublin, the greater the percentage of voters who were against the proposal.
What happens now?
The Oireachtas has proposed an abortion law for Ireland which, thankfully for pro-lifers like myself, is reasonably strict and will not allow frivolous abortions (i.e. abortions simply because the unborn child has a characteristic the mother does not like or simply because the mother changed her mind midway through the pregnancy); it will only allow abortions in medical emergencies or in cases where the unborn child will not survive and in those cases the absolute limit will be 24 weeks. However, mostly unrestricted abortions will be allowed for up to 12 weeks under the proposed abortion law , which many oppose and it is probable an amendment to remove that clause from the proposed law will pass given how many Fianna Fail deputies voted against allowing the referendum (21 out of 44) and the significant influence of Independents in the Dail. This law is likely to debated in the Dail no later than September 2018.
Will the referendum vote spark legalisation of abortion in Northern Ireland?
Not at present. The DUP and SDLP are resolutely opposed to extending the Abortion Act 1967 to Northern Ireland and attempts by the non-sectarian Alliance Party to amend the law to make it more reasonable (by allowing abortions in cases of fatal foetal abnormality) have failed. Given how strongly the outcome of Brexit negotiations and Brexit itself will impact Northern Ireland, and not just regarding the border either, this topic is not likely to come up on the agenda of the Stormont Assembly for at least another year.
ReplyDeleteWe had a chat with other Trustees of Fís Nua Green left party and noted exit polls closing predicted a general favour. What confused us that the most conservative areas, like those who voted heaviest in favour, and those opposed to same sex marriage, etc also voted in favour, but the rest of Donegal voted against. We noted some big towns in South Donegal were redesignated, and in with Sligo Leitrim, which would leave Letterkenny area alone bordering most of Derry/Londonderry, Tyrone and most of Fermanagh - making that an exit point for Abortions from significant parts of NI.
Having gone to Limavady Grammar School, in "the occupied 6 counties" I witnessed teenage girls who left school for days or weeks to go to Germany and England after incidents.
As NI and RoI already have health arrangements along the border, we think the situation changed the vote in the rest of Donegal. This is in the context that some facilities in Counties Meath, Louth, and Monaghan are particularly well known for bad woman's health issues in recent decades.