My analysis of the 2018 British local elections, part 2-separate vocations
It is not just in Greater London that demographic change has been having a long-term political effect; councils are increasingly going on divergent political paths, and not just because of UKIP's collapse either. The United Kingdom is becoming very disunited politically at a local level.
Since so many councils in Britain still elect councillors by thirds or by halves (the number is decreasing with each passing year, however) it was difficult for most councils to change hands from one party to another, or even to no overall control.
UKIP, as predicted, lost almost every seat they were defending; the only ward in the entire country they defended was Alvaston in the city of Derby; in said city of Derby they also won the seat of Derby council leader Ranjit Banwait, which neatly coincided with Labour losing overall control of that city and also their mayor, although beforehand they were only in overall control by one seat. The only other ward they won was Padiham in Burnley.
Last month: https://alansgreenthoughts.blogspot.co.uk/2018/04/election-predictions-2018-council.html I predicted which councils would change hands this year. Out of my predictions, Plymouth was indeed won by Labour even though UKIP voters could have delivered it to the Conservatives especially since the dockyards are trending towards the Conservatives in the long term, which was the most important factor behind former Royal Navy captain Johnny Mercer's win, and subsequent hold on a much larger majority of, the constituency of Plymouth Moor View. Labour also did indeed win Kirklees, and by the one seat margin I predicted due to two gains from the Liberal Democrats; one of them from Lib Dem group leader Nicola Turner. Mole Valley and Trafford were both lost to no overall control, and Basildon and Peterborough were gained from no overall control by the Conservatives; in the latter case this was by only one seat. The Liberal Democrats recovered Three Rivers from no overall control by defeating the councillor who had joined the Conservatives earlier this year, but made no further advance than that. The Conservatives retained control of Welwyn Hatfield, again by only one seat, Swindon by only one seat, and retained control of Winchester by one seat; many of the Conservative councillors in Winchester were not up for election this year as most of them did not finish third in the split wards of Winchester. (In elections by thirds occurring after a boundary change for that council in England, the councillor who finished third has their seat up for election the first election after the boundary change, the councillor who finished second has their seat up for election the second election after the boundary change, and the councillor who finished first has their seat up for election the third election after the boundary change) Surprisingly, the Conservatives failed to gain control of either Newcastle-under-Lyme or Thurrock, although Newcastle-under-Lyme switched to no overall control as a result of the 3 net gains the Conservatives made. The UKIP vote split more evenly in Thurrock between the Conservatives and Labour, thwarting a possible narrow Conservative gain that I expected, and the Thurrock Independents polled better than first predicted even though amongst them only Tim Aker MEP, who missed becoming Thurrock's UKIP MP by 964 votes in 2015, held his council seat.
The other council changes of control which I did not predict were: South Cambridgeshire (Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative), Redditch (Conservative gain from Labour), Nuneaton & Bedworth (Labour lose to NOC, by only one seat), and Derby (Labour lose to NOC as I mentioned earlier). One seat misses were the most interesting feature of this year's elections. The Conservatives failed to gain overall control of Colchester by one seat, Pendle by just one seat (even though retiring BNP councillor Brian Parker endorsed them in his ward, which they captured) before the post-election reinstatement of a councillor suspended for making a racist joke gave them overall control of the council, Walsall by just one seat despite winning 5 more seats, and also Worcester by just one seat (they gained Gorse Hill from Labour but the Green Party won Battenhall from the Conservatives, retaining the balance of power in the city). Labour held control of Southampton by just one seat, winning Portiswood and Swaythling wards from the Conservatives to counter losses of Bitterne and Peartree wards to the Conservatives. The latter two wards are in the constituency of Southampton Itchen, where Simon Letts (the Southampton council leader who has just lost his seat!) only lost to Royston Smith by 31 votes last year; Swaythling is in Romsey & Southampton North but was part of Southampton Test before 2010; Portiswood, once held by the Liberal Democrats, is in Southampton Test.
These elections resulted in large numbers of council seats changing hands in all different directions, depending not only on the Remain/Leave vote in that area in 2016 but also local factors, with the tree-felling in Sheffield attracting the most attention nationally.
Labour: Outside London, Labour was expected to poll badly based on distrust of Jeremy Corbyn and the Brexit effect. In some areas this did indeed happen-Labour lost 8 seats in Nuneaton & Bedworth when UKIP supporters turned mostly towards the Conservatives, in a town already moving away from Labour and where UKIP had in 2014 been largely responsible for the Conservatives losing 4 seats (3 to Labour, 1 to the Greens). Full council elections in the metropolitan areas of Leeds and Manchester, and the city of Hull (technically a unitary authority, although metropolitan boroughs are ipso facto unitary authorities as well) should in theory have been beneficial for Labour with smaller parties struggling to find enough candidates and with the Conservatives not competitive in the latter two, but in fact Labour lost 9 seats in Hull to the Liberal Democrats, one of the seats in the Didsbury West ward of Manchester to the Liberal Democrats even if no others were lost, and made a net loss of two seats in Leeds. Their losses in Leeds can be blamed on fractures within the Labour group; one such splinter group, the Garforth & Swillington independents, won all 3 seats in their ward's namesake from Labour, and more importantly this ward is part of the bellwether suburban constituency of Elmet & Rothwell. Welcome surprises did come for them in the north west of England, where they became the largest party in Stockport despite winning only two extra seats (including Cheadle Hulme North from the Liberal Democrats by 2 votes, and it has never been won by Labour before), and also the largest party in Trafford, overtaking the Conservatives by-here it comes again-one seat. A net gain of one seat also ensured they retained largest party status in North East Lincolnshire (still in no overall control), where UKIP's 7 losses went almost entirely to the Conservatives.
Even outside London, Labour made a net gain of councillors (+14 outside London compared to 2014) in spite of their considerable losses in many councils (especially Redditch, Nuneaton & Bedworth, and Sheffield) and a relatively inability to capitalise on the crumbling UKIP vote nationally (Portsmouth being a notable exception, helped by the election of Stephen Morgan in Portsmouth South last year), although this was expected. It is worth mentioning that in the Sheffield Mayoral election, an easy win for Labour from the beginning, that Labour had to go through a second round in order for Dan Jarvis MP to win it; they easily beat the Conservative candidate in that second round.
Conservative: Despite the Conservatives gaining the vast majority of the 113 seats UKIP were defending and which UKIP lost (approximately 20% of the UKIP councillors whose seats were up for election this year had in fact already defected to/rejoined the Conservatives before the election started, especially in the old fishing ports of Great Grimsby and Great Yarmouth), the Conservatives lost large numbers of councillors in more prosperous areas where UKIP were never competitive locally. They also had to suspend as many as 12 of their candidates after the close of nominations over homophobic, Islamophobic, and anti-Semitic social media posts; another candidate down in Hastings was suspended for falsifying a military background on his election leaflets. Their biggest loss outside London was in the commuter hinterland of South Cambridgeshire, where despite a sharply reduced number of seats in the accompanying boundary change (which normally helps the Conservative and Labour parties most) they notionally lost 16 seats. South Cambridgeshire recorded a 60.2% Remain vote in the British EU membership referendum and this was a key factor in ousting the Conservatives; this rural district is increasingly populated by university-educated commuters who are being priced out of London and Cambridge and who want a quick commute into the city with the peace and community spirit of a village/small market town. They also lost 4 seats to Labour in Worthing, which before a critical by-election last year had never elected a single Labour councillor since the modern Worthing council held its first election in 1973. The "Brighton effect" is becoming more and more marked along the south coast of Britain, populated by a large proportion of older, retired voters and once rock-solid Conservative. They also only retained control of Adur council (Shoreham-by-Sea in practice) by capturing UKIP seats (even then two of those elected Labour councillors), and they will almost certainly lose it in 2020 when Adur next has a local election. Before 2016 no Labour councillors were elected in Adur at all.
The Conservatives also only made small gains in Eastleigh and South Lakeland despite all seats being up for election and despite boundaries being somewhat more favourable to them. Council areas which voted Remain in the EU membership referendum in 2016 (outside London there were not that many, even in the larger cities, and they were a minority in rural districts and towns) rebuked the Conservatives rather sharply; the Conservatives lost 5 apiece in North Hertfordshire and West Oxfordshire, which is coterminous with the Witney constituency represented by David Cameron, who resigned precisely because Britain voted Leave in the EU referendum he had called as Prime Minister. The Conservatives held up well in Surrey even though all of Surrey's constituencies (except Spelthorne) saw noticeable increases in the Liberal Democrat vote, except for their loss of Mole Valley and inability to recapture Elmbridge, which was yet another one seat miss this year.
Liberal Democrats: On paper, the Liberal Democrats had a good election night with many surprising gains in pro-Remain areas, and they further consolidated their hold of Cheltenham, one of a minority of constituencies which they can win at the next election on present opinion poll data. They also made gains in Sheffield on the back of the tree-felling scandal that has tarnished the Labour council there, particularly in wards comprising Sheffield Hallam which they lost last year (the Labour MP there, Jared O'Mara, is still suspended from the Labour Party at this time of writing) and also in Oxford-one of them being Quarry & Risinghurst in the Oxford East constituency, as opposed to Oxford West & Abingdon which they hold and which has always been better for them even when they did not win it. They also returned to Barnsley council by winning one seat, even though it is one of the least Liberal Democrat-friendly areas demographically.
However, in many old strongholds they are unwinding rapidly; they lost several of the seats they notionally held contained within the Birmingham Yardley constituency once represented by John Hemming, and they lost 4 of the 6 seats they were defending in Sefton, all in Southport. Southport is becoming popular with commuters to Liverpool and Liberal Democrat morale has been badly hit by their loss of the seat in 2017. The Liberal Democrats also lost seats in the Pennines, making no progress in Rochdale, losing another seat in Saddleworth, and two wards in the Colne Valley area of Kirklees (the wards covered by the Colne Valley constituency). They also lost official opposition status in Burnley by losing two seats and are now level with the Conservatives in seat numbers there. Their biggest failure by far was Harrogate, even though it voted Remain in the EU membership referendum, even though they were the opposition, and even though they were the only competitors to the Conservatives. In the shrunken council which will hold full council elections from now on, the Liberal Democrats were reduced to just 7 seats out of 40; even in the town of Harrogate itself they won only 5 seats. They also incurred some surprise losses of wards that had never elected Labour councillors before: Cheadle Hulme North in Stockport by 2 votes and Trumpington in Cambridge by 4 votes.
Green: The Green Party now have their highest number of principal authority councillors ever-174-and have finally overtaken UKIP in that respect. The Green Party won their first ever seats in Birmingham, Burnley, Knowsley, Peterborough, and Trafford, with Kai Taylor achieving the largest swing of these gains in Prescot South and becoming the youngest Green councillor in the UK. All happened on the back of honest, hard-working local campaigns by the successful councillors in question, which also applied to the Green gains made on councils where they already have representation but which have not previously been known to have a strong alternative or bohemian element. Just as important was their gain of 2 seats in Sheffield on the back of a campaign to save trees within the city; Alison Teal, the only Green candidate needing to defend her seat in Sheffield as opposed to winning one from Labour, increased her vote share to 56% in spite of the efforts the Labour council made to remove her, even going so far as to unsuccessfully prosecute her for protesting against the plan. They came close to winning their first seat in St Helens as well, and also a second seat in Wirral at the same time as having to defend their only Wirral seat of Birkenhead & Tranmere.
The Green Party also won another seat in Worcester, thwarting a Conservative gain of that council, and also another in Cannock Chase, Reigate, and Solihull, meaning that the Green group in Solihull now has as many councillors as the Green strongholds of Brighton & Hove and Bristol (11 councillors each). The last three gains in particular were in wards that had never been won before by the Greens in those councils.
However, the Green Party's support went backwards in areas with a large student and left-wing electorate. They lost all 5 seats in Norwich they were defending and 2 of the 3 they were defending in Oxford; Carfax and Holywell wards have the highest student electorates in the country. They also failed to come second in any ward of Cambridge or come close to winning Headingley & Hyde Park in Leeds (where they also lost one of the Farnley & Wortley seats to Labour), even though they had polled very well in recent years in the predecessor wards of Headingley and Hyde Park & Woodhouse. For the first time in 18 years, they also lost the ward of Shipley in Bradford, and they lost their only council seats in Newcastle-under-Lyme and Worthing, not even finishing second in either Keele ward, Newcastle-under-Lyme, or Central ward, Worthing. They also narrowly lost out in by-elections held in Weymouth West and the Wiles division of Royal Leamington Spa. Most of the Greens' progress has been outside their old strongholds, and many councils with high Green potential were not up for election this year. They will be next year, however.
Others: As I mentioned earlier, UKIP were not entirely wiped out but with only 3 seats they came very close. Their only gain outside Derby was in Burnley, building on a surprise gain of the Padiham & Burnley West division last year. Their vote mainly went to the Conservatives but it also resulted in some Labour gains especially where UKIP had done particularly well in 2014, such as Basildon, Great Yarmouth, and Thurrock. In the industrial areas, particularly in the West Midlands, it mostly went to the Conservatives, however.
Various Residents' Associations outside London did not fare well, with their worst losses being in Elmbridge, However, Independent groups made several gains in Newcastle-under-Lyme, Wigan and Burnley, due to dissatisfaction with the Labour councils in those areas; Wigan has a strong tradition of local independents as well.
All minor parties did badly, with the Liberal Party (not to be confused with the Liberal Democrats) losing Dogsthorpe ward in Peterborough, which Labour won for the first time since 1979, although they easily held Tuebrook & Stoneycroft in Liverpool. The various UKIP splinters, the Democrats & Veterans Party and the For Britain Movement, all polled very poorly and none came even close to winning a council seat. The Women's Equality Party also failed to win any council seats despite having the backing of personalities like Sandi Toksvig, host of Fifteen to One. The Yorkshire Party saved its deposit in the Sheffield Mayoral election but also won no council seats. Of the few TUSC candidates still standing and not having switched their support to Labour, only Mike Forster and Dave Nellist achieved a respectable vote share (20% and 12.9% in their wards).
Since so many councils in Britain still elect councillors by thirds or by halves (the number is decreasing with each passing year, however) it was difficult for most councils to change hands from one party to another, or even to no overall control.
UKIP, as predicted, lost almost every seat they were defending; the only ward in the entire country they defended was Alvaston in the city of Derby; in said city of Derby they also won the seat of Derby council leader Ranjit Banwait, which neatly coincided with Labour losing overall control of that city and also their mayor, although beforehand they were only in overall control by one seat. The only other ward they won was Padiham in Burnley.
Last month: https://alansgreenthoughts.blogspot.co.uk/2018/04/election-predictions-2018-council.html I predicted which councils would change hands this year. Out of my predictions, Plymouth was indeed won by Labour even though UKIP voters could have delivered it to the Conservatives especially since the dockyards are trending towards the Conservatives in the long term, which was the most important factor behind former Royal Navy captain Johnny Mercer's win, and subsequent hold on a much larger majority of, the constituency of Plymouth Moor View. Labour also did indeed win Kirklees, and by the one seat margin I predicted due to two gains from the Liberal Democrats; one of them from Lib Dem group leader Nicola Turner. Mole Valley and Trafford were both lost to no overall control, and Basildon and Peterborough were gained from no overall control by the Conservatives; in the latter case this was by only one seat. The Liberal Democrats recovered Three Rivers from no overall control by defeating the councillor who had joined the Conservatives earlier this year, but made no further advance than that. The Conservatives retained control of Welwyn Hatfield, again by only one seat, Swindon by only one seat, and retained control of Winchester by one seat; many of the Conservative councillors in Winchester were not up for election this year as most of them did not finish third in the split wards of Winchester. (In elections by thirds occurring after a boundary change for that council in England, the councillor who finished third has their seat up for election the first election after the boundary change, the councillor who finished second has their seat up for election the second election after the boundary change, and the councillor who finished first has their seat up for election the third election after the boundary change) Surprisingly, the Conservatives failed to gain control of either Newcastle-under-Lyme or Thurrock, although Newcastle-under-Lyme switched to no overall control as a result of the 3 net gains the Conservatives made. The UKIP vote split more evenly in Thurrock between the Conservatives and Labour, thwarting a possible narrow Conservative gain that I expected, and the Thurrock Independents polled better than first predicted even though amongst them only Tim Aker MEP, who missed becoming Thurrock's UKIP MP by 964 votes in 2015, held his council seat.
The other council changes of control which I did not predict were: South Cambridgeshire (Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative), Redditch (Conservative gain from Labour), Nuneaton & Bedworth (Labour lose to NOC, by only one seat), and Derby (Labour lose to NOC as I mentioned earlier). One seat misses were the most interesting feature of this year's elections. The Conservatives failed to gain overall control of Colchester by one seat, Pendle by just one seat (even though retiring BNP councillor Brian Parker endorsed them in his ward, which they captured) before the post-election reinstatement of a councillor suspended for making a racist joke gave them overall control of the council, Walsall by just one seat despite winning 5 more seats, and also Worcester by just one seat (they gained Gorse Hill from Labour but the Green Party won Battenhall from the Conservatives, retaining the balance of power in the city). Labour held control of Southampton by just one seat, winning Portiswood and Swaythling wards from the Conservatives to counter losses of Bitterne and Peartree wards to the Conservatives. The latter two wards are in the constituency of Southampton Itchen, where Simon Letts (the Southampton council leader who has just lost his seat!) only lost to Royston Smith by 31 votes last year; Swaythling is in Romsey & Southampton North but was part of Southampton Test before 2010; Portiswood, once held by the Liberal Democrats, is in Southampton Test.
These elections resulted in large numbers of council seats changing hands in all different directions, depending not only on the Remain/Leave vote in that area in 2016 but also local factors, with the tree-felling in Sheffield attracting the most attention nationally.
Labour: Outside London, Labour was expected to poll badly based on distrust of Jeremy Corbyn and the Brexit effect. In some areas this did indeed happen-Labour lost 8 seats in Nuneaton & Bedworth when UKIP supporters turned mostly towards the Conservatives, in a town already moving away from Labour and where UKIP had in 2014 been largely responsible for the Conservatives losing 4 seats (3 to Labour, 1 to the Greens). Full council elections in the metropolitan areas of Leeds and Manchester, and the city of Hull (technically a unitary authority, although metropolitan boroughs are ipso facto unitary authorities as well) should in theory have been beneficial for Labour with smaller parties struggling to find enough candidates and with the Conservatives not competitive in the latter two, but in fact Labour lost 9 seats in Hull to the Liberal Democrats, one of the seats in the Didsbury West ward of Manchester to the Liberal Democrats even if no others were lost, and made a net loss of two seats in Leeds. Their losses in Leeds can be blamed on fractures within the Labour group; one such splinter group, the Garforth & Swillington independents, won all 3 seats in their ward's namesake from Labour, and more importantly this ward is part of the bellwether suburban constituency of Elmet & Rothwell. Welcome surprises did come for them in the north west of England, where they became the largest party in Stockport despite winning only two extra seats (including Cheadle Hulme North from the Liberal Democrats by 2 votes, and it has never been won by Labour before), and also the largest party in Trafford, overtaking the Conservatives by-here it comes again-one seat. A net gain of one seat also ensured they retained largest party status in North East Lincolnshire (still in no overall control), where UKIP's 7 losses went almost entirely to the Conservatives.
Even outside London, Labour made a net gain of councillors (+14 outside London compared to 2014) in spite of their considerable losses in many councils (especially Redditch, Nuneaton & Bedworth, and Sheffield) and a relatively inability to capitalise on the crumbling UKIP vote nationally (Portsmouth being a notable exception, helped by the election of Stephen Morgan in Portsmouth South last year), although this was expected. It is worth mentioning that in the Sheffield Mayoral election, an easy win for Labour from the beginning, that Labour had to go through a second round in order for Dan Jarvis MP to win it; they easily beat the Conservative candidate in that second round.
Conservative: Despite the Conservatives gaining the vast majority of the 113 seats UKIP were defending and which UKIP lost (approximately 20% of the UKIP councillors whose seats were up for election this year had in fact already defected to/rejoined the Conservatives before the election started, especially in the old fishing ports of Great Grimsby and Great Yarmouth), the Conservatives lost large numbers of councillors in more prosperous areas where UKIP were never competitive locally. They also had to suspend as many as 12 of their candidates after the close of nominations over homophobic, Islamophobic, and anti-Semitic social media posts; another candidate down in Hastings was suspended for falsifying a military background on his election leaflets. Their biggest loss outside London was in the commuter hinterland of South Cambridgeshire, where despite a sharply reduced number of seats in the accompanying boundary change (which normally helps the Conservative and Labour parties most) they notionally lost 16 seats. South Cambridgeshire recorded a 60.2% Remain vote in the British EU membership referendum and this was a key factor in ousting the Conservatives; this rural district is increasingly populated by university-educated commuters who are being priced out of London and Cambridge and who want a quick commute into the city with the peace and community spirit of a village/small market town. They also lost 4 seats to Labour in Worthing, which before a critical by-election last year had never elected a single Labour councillor since the modern Worthing council held its first election in 1973. The "Brighton effect" is becoming more and more marked along the south coast of Britain, populated by a large proportion of older, retired voters and once rock-solid Conservative. They also only retained control of Adur council (Shoreham-by-Sea in practice) by capturing UKIP seats (even then two of those elected Labour councillors), and they will almost certainly lose it in 2020 when Adur next has a local election. Before 2016 no Labour councillors were elected in Adur at all.
The Conservatives also only made small gains in Eastleigh and South Lakeland despite all seats being up for election and despite boundaries being somewhat more favourable to them. Council areas which voted Remain in the EU membership referendum in 2016 (outside London there were not that many, even in the larger cities, and they were a minority in rural districts and towns) rebuked the Conservatives rather sharply; the Conservatives lost 5 apiece in North Hertfordshire and West Oxfordshire, which is coterminous with the Witney constituency represented by David Cameron, who resigned precisely because Britain voted Leave in the EU referendum he had called as Prime Minister. The Conservatives held up well in Surrey even though all of Surrey's constituencies (except Spelthorne) saw noticeable increases in the Liberal Democrat vote, except for their loss of Mole Valley and inability to recapture Elmbridge, which was yet another one seat miss this year.
Liberal Democrats: On paper, the Liberal Democrats had a good election night with many surprising gains in pro-Remain areas, and they further consolidated their hold of Cheltenham, one of a minority of constituencies which they can win at the next election on present opinion poll data. They also made gains in Sheffield on the back of the tree-felling scandal that has tarnished the Labour council there, particularly in wards comprising Sheffield Hallam which they lost last year (the Labour MP there, Jared O'Mara, is still suspended from the Labour Party at this time of writing) and also in Oxford-one of them being Quarry & Risinghurst in the Oxford East constituency, as opposed to Oxford West & Abingdon which they hold and which has always been better for them even when they did not win it. They also returned to Barnsley council by winning one seat, even though it is one of the least Liberal Democrat-friendly areas demographically.
However, in many old strongholds they are unwinding rapidly; they lost several of the seats they notionally held contained within the Birmingham Yardley constituency once represented by John Hemming, and they lost 4 of the 6 seats they were defending in Sefton, all in Southport. Southport is becoming popular with commuters to Liverpool and Liberal Democrat morale has been badly hit by their loss of the seat in 2017. The Liberal Democrats also lost seats in the Pennines, making no progress in Rochdale, losing another seat in Saddleworth, and two wards in the Colne Valley area of Kirklees (the wards covered by the Colne Valley constituency). They also lost official opposition status in Burnley by losing two seats and are now level with the Conservatives in seat numbers there. Their biggest failure by far was Harrogate, even though it voted Remain in the EU membership referendum, even though they were the opposition, and even though they were the only competitors to the Conservatives. In the shrunken council which will hold full council elections from now on, the Liberal Democrats were reduced to just 7 seats out of 40; even in the town of Harrogate itself they won only 5 seats. They also incurred some surprise losses of wards that had never elected Labour councillors before: Cheadle Hulme North in Stockport by 2 votes and Trumpington in Cambridge by 4 votes.
Green: The Green Party now have their highest number of principal authority councillors ever-174-and have finally overtaken UKIP in that respect. The Green Party won their first ever seats in Birmingham, Burnley, Knowsley, Peterborough, and Trafford, with Kai Taylor achieving the largest swing of these gains in Prescot South and becoming the youngest Green councillor in the UK. All happened on the back of honest, hard-working local campaigns by the successful councillors in question, which also applied to the Green gains made on councils where they already have representation but which have not previously been known to have a strong alternative or bohemian element. Just as important was their gain of 2 seats in Sheffield on the back of a campaign to save trees within the city; Alison Teal, the only Green candidate needing to defend her seat in Sheffield as opposed to winning one from Labour, increased her vote share to 56% in spite of the efforts the Labour council made to remove her, even going so far as to unsuccessfully prosecute her for protesting against the plan. They came close to winning their first seat in St Helens as well, and also a second seat in Wirral at the same time as having to defend their only Wirral seat of Birkenhead & Tranmere.
The Green Party also won another seat in Worcester, thwarting a Conservative gain of that council, and also another in Cannock Chase, Reigate, and Solihull, meaning that the Green group in Solihull now has as many councillors as the Green strongholds of Brighton & Hove and Bristol (11 councillors each). The last three gains in particular were in wards that had never been won before by the Greens in those councils.
However, the Green Party's support went backwards in areas with a large student and left-wing electorate. They lost all 5 seats in Norwich they were defending and 2 of the 3 they were defending in Oxford; Carfax and Holywell wards have the highest student electorates in the country. They also failed to come second in any ward of Cambridge or come close to winning Headingley & Hyde Park in Leeds (where they also lost one of the Farnley & Wortley seats to Labour), even though they had polled very well in recent years in the predecessor wards of Headingley and Hyde Park & Woodhouse. For the first time in 18 years, they also lost the ward of Shipley in Bradford, and they lost their only council seats in Newcastle-under-Lyme and Worthing, not even finishing second in either Keele ward, Newcastle-under-Lyme, or Central ward, Worthing. They also narrowly lost out in by-elections held in Weymouth West and the Wiles division of Royal Leamington Spa. Most of the Greens' progress has been outside their old strongholds, and many councils with high Green potential were not up for election this year. They will be next year, however.
Others: As I mentioned earlier, UKIP were not entirely wiped out but with only 3 seats they came very close. Their only gain outside Derby was in Burnley, building on a surprise gain of the Padiham & Burnley West division last year. Their vote mainly went to the Conservatives but it also resulted in some Labour gains especially where UKIP had done particularly well in 2014, such as Basildon, Great Yarmouth, and Thurrock. In the industrial areas, particularly in the West Midlands, it mostly went to the Conservatives, however.
Various Residents' Associations outside London did not fare well, with their worst losses being in Elmbridge, However, Independent groups made several gains in Newcastle-under-Lyme, Wigan and Burnley, due to dissatisfaction with the Labour councils in those areas; Wigan has a strong tradition of local independents as well.
All minor parties did badly, with the Liberal Party (not to be confused with the Liberal Democrats) losing Dogsthorpe ward in Peterborough, which Labour won for the first time since 1979, although they easily held Tuebrook & Stoneycroft in Liverpool. The various UKIP splinters, the Democrats & Veterans Party and the For Britain Movement, all polled very poorly and none came even close to winning a council seat. The Women's Equality Party also failed to win any council seats despite having the backing of personalities like Sandi Toksvig, host of Fifteen to One. The Yorkshire Party saved its deposit in the Sheffield Mayoral election but also won no council seats. Of the few TUSC candidates still standing and not having switched their support to Labour, only Mike Forster and Dave Nellist achieved a respectable vote share (20% and 12.9% in their wards).
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