My analysis of by-elections from 24/5/18

The results of this week's local by-elections in Britain were as follows (includes elections deferred from 3rd May due to the death of a previously nominated candidate):

Bristol UA, Westbury-on-Trym & Henleaze: Conservative 2900 (42.3%, -0.1%), Liberal Democrats 2704 (39.5%, +10.4%), Labour 891 (13.0%,-2.8%), Green 355 (5.2%, -7.2%). Conservative gain from Liberal Democrat.

Broadland DC, Aylsham: Liberal Democrats 1018 (46.0%,+19.1%), Conservative 865 (39.1%,+6.7%), Labour 328 (14.8%, -10.0%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative. [UKIP did not stand]

Horsham DC, Cowfold, Shermanbury & West Grinstead: Conservative 661 (68.4%, -2.9%), Labour 158 (16.3%), Liberal Democrats 148 (15.3%, -13.4%).

North Kesteven DC, Kirkby la Thorpe & South Kyme: Lincolnshire Independents 278 (45.9%, +10.3%), Conservative 271 (44.7%, -19.7%), Labour 30 (5.0%), Liberal Democrats 27 (4.5%). Lincolnshire Independent gain from Conservative.

Stockport MBC, Edgeley Green & Cheadle Heath (deferred from 03/05/18): Labour 1709 (73.9%, +16.2%), Liberal Democrats 203 (8.8%, +1.4%), Conservative 187 (8.1%, -0.1%), Green 144 (6.2%,-2.9%), UKIP 71 (3.1%, -14.7%). All changes are since 2014.

Waverley DC, Farnham Castle: Farnham Residents' Association 354 (37.9%, +2.3%), Liberal Democrats 338 (36.1%, +11.1%), Conservative 175 (18.7%, -5.8%), Labour 42 (4.5%, -10.4%), Independent (Westcott) 26 (2.8%).

(NB: A deferred election will take place today in Glascote ward, Tamworth. The results of it will be posted as soon as the result is available)

Apart from in the safely Conservative ward of Cowfold, Shermanbury & West Grinstead, covering villages just south of Crawley, and in the safely Labour ward of Edgeley Green & Cheadle Heath in Stockport, the two candidate squeezes continued apace. Every candidate finishing third or lower saw a sharp drop in their vote share.

The Liberal Democrats had a rather mixed night, winning Aylsham ward in Broadland with ease but narrowly failing to capture Farnham Castle from the local Residents' Association despite the fact Farnham is one of the most Liberal Democrat friendly towns in Surrey. They also lost their seat in Westbury-on-Trym & Henelaze, which in 2016 was formed from a merger of two relatively similar areas: the wealthy suburb of Westbury-on-Trym, formerly the joint-safest Conservative ward in Bristol, and the affluent suburb of Henleaze, which was once safely Conservative but was captured by the Liberal Democrats who turned it into a safe Liberal Democrat ward before the 2016 boundary changes for Bristol occurred. Their retiring councillor had a strong personal vote which dissipated in the by-election, and squeezing the Labour and Green votes was not enough to counter the high turnout of the more solidly Conservative electorate.

The Lincolnshire Independents had been on a downward spiral before the by-election in Kirkby la Thorpe & South Kyme near Sleaford-they lost 8 of their 9 county council seats in 2017 and did not even put forward any candidates in the subsequent general election. Their 7-vote gain is a welcome break from such a spiral and has undoubtedly come from a revival in support for localist parties across Britain in rural and small town Britain. 
 
The Green Party, despite not finding success in this week's district council by-elections, won their third seat on Hythe town council in Kent and remain the official opposition to the Conservatives. They are also on course to make gains in Folkestone & Hythe in next year's local elections, especially since there will be no general election held simultaneously with said local elections as was the case in 2015.





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