My analysis of British local by-elections from 17/5/18

This week's British local by-elections were the first since the May 2018 local elections. The results were as follows:

Lancaster BC, Skerton West: Labour 587 (57.5%, +22.6%), Conservative 279 (27.4%, +0.6%), Liberal Democrats 95 (9.3%), Green 59 (5.8%, -3.7%). [UKIP did not stand]

Lancaster BC, University & Scotforth Rural: Labour 518/423 (46.1%, +10.2%), Green 264/235 (24.4%, -7.5%), Conservative 184/184 (18.0%, -7.7%), Liberal Democrats 120/114 (10.5%, +4.9%). Labour gain from Green (double by-election; Labour hold other seat).

Suffolk Coastal DC, Leiston: Conservative 612 (42.1%, +10.7%), Labour 336 (23.7%, -0.6%), Independent 293 (20.2%), Liberal Democrats 213 (14.6%, +6.9%). [Other independent candidates and the Green Party did not stand].

NB: The Green councillor who resigned his seat in University & Scotforth Rural, Sam Armstrong, defected to Labour before resigning his seat.

The Green Party's loss of their council seat in the double by-election in University & Scotforth Rural, one of only a few council wards where university students make up a clear majority of electors, was sadly not unexpected due to Labour able to easily win over the few voting student electors under Jeremy Corbyn's tenure. It also coincides with Magid Magid, a Green councillor in Sheffield, becoming the youngest ever Lord Mayor of Sheffield at age 28, and the first Afro-British person to ever hold that particular post (he was born in Somalia and emigrated to England aged 5). Two other Green Party Lord Mayors are being sworn in for this year, notably Cleo Lake in Bristol and Martin Schmeirer in Norwich. That said, the swing to Labour was only 8.9%, much lower than any of the swings from Green to Labour in either Norwich or Oxford earlier this month. The expansion of the former University ward to University & Scotforth Rural has increased the number of permanent electors, of whom academic staff and lecturers at Lancaster University form a significant proportion; this accounts for the Conservative to Liberal Democrat swing of 6.2% also seen in this by-election. Meanwhile in Skerton West, the absence of UKIP and the appearance of the Liberal Democrats (who did not stand in this ward in 2015, and who currently have no councillors in Lancaster) did nothing to stem a strong swing in Labour's favour, or allow the Conservatives to make any advance.

In Leiston, once home to a famous steam engine factory which closed in 1981, and one of the few small market towns in England to have had any Communist presence (giving it a nickname of "Little Moscow" for some years), the Independent candidate, Sammy Beeston, could not take advantage of previous good results by Independent candidates meaning the Conservatives held the seat easily, with Labour coming a good second in line with the town's tradition.





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