My analysis of local by-elections from 19/04/18

Readers, the results of this week's British local by-elections were as follows:

Perth & Kinross UA, Highland (1st preference votes): Conservative 1907 (46.7%, +1.3%), SNP 1466 (35.9%, -0.6%), Independent Taylor 280 (6.9%), Labour 239 (5.8%), Green 104 (2.5%, -1.5%), Liberal Democrats 78 (1.5%, -2.0%), Independent Baykal 12 (0.3%). Conservative hold at stage 6.

Warrington UA, Lymm South: Liberal Democrats 769 (42.8%, +11.7%), Conservative 649 (36.2%, -2.6%), Labour 328 (18.3%, -1.8%), UKIP 25 (1.4%, -8.3%), Green 24 (1.3%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.

West Berkshire UA, Thatcham West: Liberal Democrats 820 (48.4%, +9.7%), Conservative 523 (30.9%, -16.9%), Green 130 (7.7%), Labour 130 (7.7%, -3.6%), UKIP 91 (5.4%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.

These are the last set of British local by-elections before this year's local elections of 3 May, and it must be said that the two Liberal Democrat gains in Warrington and West Berkshire were rather predictable. The Conservative councillor whose death caused the by-election in Lymm South was well-regarded in a competitive and well-heeled suburb of Warrington, and it was unsurprising the Liberal Democrats would be the beneficiaries of the by-election in the current political climate, especially with the latest scandal over deportation of "Windrush Generation" immigrants who have been living in Britain for often over 60 years apiece. UKIP's derisory showing made no difference to that result.

The tight battle between the SNP and the Conservatives in the large and rural Highland ward, located in the most marginal SNP-held constituency (Perth & North Perthshire, held by the SNP's Peter Wishart by just 21 votes in 2017) was never going to produce a large swing (only a swing of 1.1% was achieved in the Conservatives' favour), but Independent candidate Avril Taylor made a significant impact despite only achieving 6.9% of the first preference votes; her transfers in the final stage were decisive in ensuring a Conservative hold in such a critically competitive area between the unionists and nationalists of Scotland. The squeeze even affected the Greens and the Liberal Democrats, whose vote in 2017 was already weak in this ward. Former UKIP candidate Denise Baykal continued her poor run from last year by achieving a miserable 12 votes in this by-election, less than half of what she achieved even in the Perth City North by-election.

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