My analysis of British local by-elections from 05/04/18

Readers, the results of this week's British local by-elections were as follows:

Fylde BC, Heyhouses: Conservative 655 (58.1%, +13.0%), Labour 202 (17.9%, -14.2%), Liberal Democrats 138 (12.2%, -10.6%), Green 133 (11.8%).

Highland UA, Caol & Mallaig (1st preference votes): Liberal Democrats 658 (31.1%, +21.8%), SNP 574 (27.2%, +3.2%), Independent (Wood) 454 (21.5%), Conservative 183 (8.7%, +0.5%), Independent (MacKinnon) 146 (6.9%), Independent (Campbell) 98 (4.6%) Liberal Democrat gain from SNP at stage 6. [No Labour candidate this time].

New Forest DC, Milford: Conservative 1057 (76.4%, -3.1%), Liberal Democrats 200 (14.5%), Labour 126 (9.1%, -11.4%).

Taunton Deane BC, Wiveliscombe & West Deane: Green 600 (44.7%, +36.3%), Liberal Democrats 389 (29.0%,+18.3%) Conservative 352 (26.2%, +4.5%). Green gain from Independent. [No Independent candidates this time]

The Green Party's win in Wiveliscombe & West Deane gives them their first councillor in Taunton Deane since 2003, and it happened on the day of their election launch by co-leader Jonathan Bartley: https://www.greenparty.org.uk/news/2018/04/05/green-party-launches-ambition-for-a-green-on-every-council/ It occurred due to a helping hand from the departing Independent councillor, who signed Dave Mansell's nomination papers, and also the Green Party has the highest potential in these types of wards-rural/small town wards in the west of England. Areas threatened by fracking are also supportive towards the Greens for obvious reasons, but this was not enough for them to come close to winning one of the safest Conservative wards in the north west of England-Lytham St Anne's is the most Conservative town in Lancashire, even when taking into account towns of Lancashire absorbed into Greater Manchester and Merseyside in 1974. In the Highlands, personal votes and locality dominate above partisan factors; the candidates who actually lived in the ward, as opposed to nearby Wester Ross, obtained the highest preferences with independent transfers contributing decisively to a Liberal Democrat gain. 
We will soon know who is standing in this year's British local elections, and my predictions will soon follow.








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