My analysis of British local by-elections from 12/04/18

Readers, the results of British local by-elections which took place on 12 April 2018 were as follows:

Chichester DC, Rogate: Liberal Democrats 446 (55.8%), Conservative 319 (40.1%, -27.3%), Labour 21 (2.6%), Green 12 (1.5%, -18.2%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative. [UKIP did not stand]

St Edmundsbury BC, St Olave's: Labour 365 (58.6%, +27.0%), Conservative 150 (24.1%, -6.5%), Independent (Byrne) 77 (12.4%), Liberal Democrats 31 (5.0%).

South Northamptonshire DC, Middleton Cheney: Conservative 391 (42.1%, -21.6%), Liberal Democrats 316 (34.1%), Labour 183 (19.7%), Green 38 (4.1%).

Locality was the name of the game in Chichester, with the winning Liberal Democrat candidate, Kate O'Kelly, having won the Midhurst county council division last year, in which the village of Rogate sits. The Conservative candidate meanwhile gave an address outside the ward, which in a village or small town can put you out of the running well before election day, especially in a by-election. A similar swing in the Northamptonshire village of Middleton Cheney was achieved for the same reason, but in that case it was not enough to win the seat. The large swing to Labour meanwhile in St Olave's, a ward normally safe for them given its demographics, comes from anti-Conservative voters who in 2015 voted for Independent councillor Paul Hofspenberger (who last year initially intended to be an Independent candidate in the parliamentary constituency of Bury St Edmunds, but later withdrew).

On a personal note, I wish the best of luck to the 2,130 Green Party candidates standing in British local elections this year, and thank you to those who watched the Green Party election broadcast last night.

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