Election predictions 2018-council holds/switches and seat predictions

With 18 days to go before polling day for this year's British local council elections, and with a more divided political climate than ever, what will happen?

Based on candidates listed on Statements of Persons Nominated (candidates validated as standing for election, for your information), current council numbers, the state of the parties in the opinion polls (local council control is often decided by national issues, even if the council themselves does not have any remit over them), and my own calculations, I predict the following in terms of council control (of those areas which could or will change hands; council control is as of today, not May 2014):

LABOUR GAIN FROM CONSERVATIVE:

Hillingdon
Plymouth
Wandsworth


LABOUR GAIN FROM NOC:

Barnet
Kirklees

LABOUR LOSE TO NOC:

Cannock Chase

CONSERVATIVE GAIN FROM LABOUR:

Newcastle-under-Lyme

CONSERVATIVE GAIN FROM NOC:

Basildon
Basingstoke & Deane
Peterborough
Thurrock

CONSERVATIVE LOSE TO NOC:

Mole Valley
Trafford
Welwyn Hatfield

LIBERAL DEMOCRAT GAIN FROM CONSERVATIVE:

Kingston-upon-Thames
Richmond-upon-Thames

LIBERAL DEMOCRAT GAIN FROM NOC:

Three Rivers

(NB: Councillor defections, especially from UKIP, and by-elections have meant some of these councils have changed control between 2016 and 2018)

The disappearance of UKIP will be the biggest factor in whether councils up for election this year change hands or not, especially out of or to No Overall Control. As for seat predictions, I predict the following net gains/losses to the best degree of accuracy I can, barring surprise gains or losses and taking into account by-elections happening on the same day (for council seats not normally up for election this year):

Labour: +170
Conservative: -70
Liberal Democrats: +50
Green: +2
UKIP: Lose all council seats they are defending (which is only one-quarter of the 166 they won back in 2014) which is what happened to them in last year's county council elections.
Others: Aspire and People's Alliance for Tower Hamlets will end up dividing the anti-Labour vote in many Tower Hamlets wards, meaning they will only win a few seats formerly held by Tower Hamlets First. Residents' Associations expected to make considerable net gains, especially in Havering. Liberals (not to be confused with the Lib Dems) to hold both their council seats. Seat gains by any other new parties (Duma Polska [Polish Pride in Polish], Renew, Democrats & Veterans [a UKIP splinter], For Britain [another UKIP splinter] etc.) very unlikely. (The BNP have already lost their last council seat, with their last sitting councillor having retired with no BNP candidate to stand in his place).


Comments

  1. Anonymous15 April 2018 at 21:00

    Where do you predict the Green gains?
    What do you think about Highgate where the Green vote is split between Sian Berry and Constantine Buhayer?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Alan B15 April 2018 at 22:20

      Sian Berry should hold on in Highgate but it will be close.

      I predict Green gains will be made in:
      Amber Valley, Cannock Chase, Kirklees, Lambeth (due to controversial gentrification in Lambeth opposed by the Greens), Newcastle-upon-Tyne, Nuneaton & Bedworth, Sheffield, Trafford, the by-election in Weymouth, and Worcester.

      Delete
  2. MidlandGreen15 April 2018 at 22:29

    I would put a small wager on Green gains in Peterborough and Burnley.

    ReplyDelete

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