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Showing posts from January, 2018

My analysis of two constituency by-elections in France and Austria's first Landtag election of 2018

Yesterday, the first two by-elections to be held in France since Emmanuel Macron convincingly won the French Presidential election took place due to the results in Territoire de Belfort's 1st constituency (in practice, "Belfort East") and Val d'Oise's 1st constituency (in practice, "Val d'Oise North West") were annulled. In the former case, this happened due to Ian Boucard's campaigners distributing misleading leaflets in the constituency, and in the latter it is because Isabelle Muller-Quoy's alternate, Michel Alexeef, was ineligible to run for election as he was president of an employment tribunal at the time of the election (such positions are politically restricted in many countries, including the UK). In "Belfort East", Ian Boucard for Les Republicans (France's main conservative party) achieved a considerable swing of 10.24% against En Marche (Emmanuel Macron's personal vehicle in practice, with a special focus on lib...

My analysis of yesterday's local by-election and why a coup to oust Theresa May will not cause another snap election

Readers, the result of the Isle of Wight council by-election, the only British local by-election that took place yesterday, was as follows: Isle of Wight UA, Central Wight: Conservative 547 (49.7%, -25.5%), Liberal Democrats 286 (26.0%), Green 143 (13.0%, -5.9%), Labour 101 (9.2%, +3.2%), UKIP 24 (2.2%)*. *The UKIP candidate, Terry Brennan, unofficially withdrew before polling day (it is not possible to officially withdraw from any British election after nominations have closed), although after postal votes had been sent out. Despite the Green Party's efforts in this by-election, located in their best prospect to elect a second MP, they finished third behind the Liberal Democrats who had not stood in the ward last year. As an indirect consequence the Conservative vote fell below 50% for the first time in this rural and peacefully isolated ward. UKIP's unofficial withdrawal made no difference in the end; such is their credibility or in fact lack thereof. This was com...

My analysis of local by-elections of 18/1/18

Readers, the results of British local by-elections this week were as follows: Bolton MBC, Hulton: Conservative 1455 (49.4%, +16.7%), Labour 1179 (40.1%, +3.0%), UKIP 190 (6.5%, -18.0%), Liberal Democrats 67 (2.3%, -0.2%), Green 52 (1.8%, -1.5%). Conservative gain from Labour, all changes are since 2016. Bournemouth UA, Throop & Muscliff: Independent (Kieron Wilson) 533 (31.3%), Conservative 511 (30.0%, +6.4%), Labour 402 (23.6%, +14.3%), Independent (Peter Lucas) 117 (6.9%, -6.1%*), Liberal Democrats 107 (6.3%), Green 33 (1.9%, -6.3%). [UKIP did not stand]. Independent gain from previous Independent. *Compared to Peter's performance as a UKIP candidate for the same ward in 2015. Milton Keynes UA, Newport Pagnell North & Hanslope: Conservative 1604 (53.0%, +5.2%), Labour 749 (24.8%, +4.0%), Liberal Democrats 671 (22.2%, +3.7%). [UKIP did not stand]. All changes are since 2016. Rochford DC, Downhall & Rawreth: Liberal Democrats 794 (77.0%, +16.6%), Conservative 23...

Carillion: A prime example of the failure of PFI in public services

The collapse of major construction firm Carillion, a key player in the disastrous policy of Private Finance Initiative (PFI), has led to a multi-million pound taxpayer bailout to save thousands of jobs at risk and ensure on-going projects (like the new Midland Metropolitan Hospital, not planned for completion until next year) are completed. The failure of Carillion is not the only example of the failure of PFI over the 25 years it has been in existence (although it proliferated heavily under New Labour, please remember that it was the Conservatives under John Major who devised the idea), where private, profit-oriented companies are contracted to take on public projects with taxpayers' money i.e. your money, not theirs . PFI allows private companies to force the innocent public to take the blame for the failures of corporate bosses who take an interest in funding public construction projects (and other public projects for that matter). Carillion, which became involved in as man...

My analysis of by-elections from the first fortnight of January 2018

Readers, the results of local by-elections in Britain in the first two weeks of 2018 (there was only one last week) were as follows: Hertsmere BC, Borehamwood Cowley Hill: Labour 709 (59.8%, +6.4%), Conservative 381 (32.2%, -14.4%), UKIP 57 (4.8%), Liberal Democrats 20 (1.7%), Green 18 (1.5%). Labour gain from Conservative (previous results are based on averages; this ward's representation was split in 2015). Kent CC, Birchington & Thanet Rural: Conservative 2534 (56.6%, +6.1%), Labour 856 (19.1%, +2.9%), Liberal Democrats 561 (12.5%, +0.5%), UKIP 357 (8.0%, -7.8%), Green 169 (3.8%, -1.8%). Thanet BC, Thanet Villages: Conservative 620 (49.3%, +23.4%), Liberal Democrats 313 (24.9%), Labour 206 (16.4%, +5.9%), Green 66 (5.2%, -7.0%), Independent Smith 52 (4.1%, -22.9%). Conservative hold (ward with split representation in 2015). Lancashire CC, Wyre Rural: Conservative 1745 (60.0%,-10.9%), Labour 925 (31.8%, +13.9%), Green 237 (8.2%, -3.1%). Wyre DC, Preesall: Conservati...

On the 2018 cabinet reshuffle

The latest reshuffle of Theresa May's Cabinet, whilst not drastic, has been rather interesting, to say the least. Being an entirely Conservative Cabinet, I was not expecting much change, except for the worse. The resignations of James Brokenshire and Sir Patrick McLoughlin from the Cabinet have attracted the most attention but they are not the most significant changes by far. The fact that Justine Greening has been replaced by Damian Hinds (MP for East Hampshire since 2010) as Education Secretary makes no noticeable difference. The most significant and worst change is the re-appointment of Esther McVey to Work & Pensions Secretary; David Gauke meanwhile becomes Justice Secretary and is the first solicitor to hold this role (mostly held by barristers historically). The last time Esther was Work & Pension Secretary (when she was MP for Wirral West, rather than the Tatton constituency she currently represents), she became infamous for her total disregard for the lives and ...

Welcome to 2018 :)

Happy New Year, readers. I hope your resolutions have been made and that you have some good plans for what you hope to achieve. Coming up this year: Parliamentary elections in Brazil, Hungary, Sweden, Italy, Luxembourg, Moldova and Bosnia & Herzegovina. Canadian provincial elections in New Brunswick, Ontario, and Quebec. Australian state elections in South Australia, Tasmania, and Victoria, the last one of which will be particularly exciting. Several state elections in Austria, and Bavaria's Landtag election. United Kingdom local elections, including all the Greater London Boroughs. And possibly a snap general election in the United Kingdom-the current government is none too stable at present.