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Showing posts from November, 2017

My analysis of by-elections from 23/11/17

Readers, the results of local by-elections in Britain from Thursday 23rd November 2017 were as follows: Cotswold DC, Grumbolds Ash & Avening: Conservative 420 (64.7%, -7.8%), Liberal Democrats 136 (21.0%, -7.6%), Labour 93 (14.3%). Dover BC, St Margaret's at Cliffe: Conservative 750 (70.5%,+19.2%), Labour 314 (29.5%, +7.3%). Herefordshire UA, Bishops Frome & Cradley: Green 471 (45.3%, +13.9%), Conservative 299 (28.8%, -39.8%), Liberal Democrats 251 (24.1%), Labour 19 (1.8%). Green gain from Conservative. Leicester UA, Eyres Monsell : Labour 556 (53.2%, +9.8%), Liberal Democrats 320 (30.6%, +23.6%), Conservative 170 (16.3%, +0.2%). Neath Port Talbot UA, Bryncoch South: Plaid Cymru 525 (49.5%, +3.3%), Labour 306 (28.8%, +5.1%), Conservative 105 (9.9%, -8.4%), Liberal Democrats 92 (8.7%, +3.0%), UKIP 33 (3.1%). Perth & Kinross UA, Perth City South: SNP 1780 (32.1%, +6.4%), Conservative 1734 (31.2%, +6.0%), Liberal Democrats 1597 (28.8%, -5.9%), Labour 314 (5.7%...

On the Autumn 2017 Budget

The Autumn 2017 Budget (note: it is nearly now winter) was released today by Phillip Hammond, with a particularly noted focus on promising to help first-time buyers who are increasingly shut out of the housing market, especially south of the River Thames and in Greater London. Despite these promises made in the budget, they fall flat for these five reasons: 1. Abolishing stamp duty does not get to the root of the problem and it will not be enough. House prices have risen extortionately in the last 20 years, especially south of the Watford Gap, and far beyond any reduction of stamp duty would ever accomplish. The average house price in many London boroughs is well above the £300,000 threshold (below which stamp duty would be abolished) which represents 15 years' salary (after income tax and National Insurance contributions) for an average worker in Britain. And more people earn less than average than above it! 2. Investment in a nationally maintained infrastructure for elect...

Political correlations within the Australian same-sex marriage referendum

On Tuesday, Australia voted in favour of same-sex marriage by a margin of 61.6% to 38.4%, which was celebrated not only by Australians but by progressive people around the world, even if they did not identify as LGBTIQA+. However, as with a referendum on the same issue in Ireland in 2015, the divide between secular, urban communities and rural, more religious communities was very stark indeed. Several electorates with high proportions of residents born overseas also voted against, notably the division of Bruce, where over 50% of residents were born overseas, where nearly 50% were born in a non-English speaking country, and where over 50% of residents speak a language other than English at home. Bruce voted against same-sex marriage by a margin of 46.9% to 53.1%. It is not a safe electorate either-it is marginal (held by Labor) Of the 17 electorates which voted against same-sex marriage in that survey, the majority were Labor-held, and often very safely so (Kennedy was...

My analysis of UK local by-elections from 16/11/17 and other thoughts

Readers, the results of British local by-elections from this week were as follows: Chiltern DC, Penn & Coleshill: Conservative 697 (80.6%, -19.4%), Liberal Democrats 168 (19.4%). NB: Conservatives were unopposed in this ward in 2015. Darlington UA, Mowden: Conservative 652 (60.9%, +6.6%), Labour 285 (26.6%, -10.4%), Liberal Democrats 111 (10.4%), Green 26 (2.1%, -6.6%). Darlington UA, Red Hill & Lingfield: Labour 249 (44.8%, -1.9%), Conservative 230 (41.4%, +12.4%), Independent (Kevin Brack)* 46 (8.3%), Green 20 (3.6%, -8.9%), Liberal Democrats 11 (2.0%, -9.9%). Eden DC, Penrith North: Liberal Democrats 422 (45.2%, +2.3%), Conservative 291 (31.2%,-0.8%), Labour 155 (16.6%, -8.5%), Green 65 (7.0%). Fylde BC, Staining & Weeton: Conservative 401 (73.0%, +8.4%), Labour 111 (20.2%, -15.1%), Liberal Democrats 37 (6.7%). Hartlepool UA, Victoria: Labour 479 (53.1%, +10.7%), UKIP 325 (36.0%, +12.7%), Conservative 98 (10.9%, -0.7%). All changes are since 2016. South Ho...

My analysis of British local by-elections from 9/11/17

Readers, the results of British local by-elections from this week were as follows: Camden LBC, Gospel Oak: Labour 1144 (57.5, +9.5%), Liberal Democrats 510 (25.7%, +19.2%), Conservative 303 (15.2%, -1.1%), English Democrats 31 (1.6%). Fareham BC, Stubbington: Liberal Democrats 1185 (55.2%, +32.4%), Conservative 769 (35.8%, +6.1%), UKIP 117 (5.4%, -37.9%), Labour 76 (3.5%, -0.5%). Liberal Democrat gain from UKIP; all changes are since 2014. Flintshire UA, Buckley Bistre West: Labour 398 (53.9%, +10.5%), Independent (Hutchinson) 110 (14.9%), Independent (Teire) 86 (11.7%), Liberal Democrats 85 (11.5%, -26.8%), Conservative 59 (8.0%). High Peak DC, Limestone Peak: Conservative 261 (53.7%, +3.4%), Labour 133 (27.4%, +0.6%), Liberal Democrats 58 (11.9%), Green 34 (7.0%).   Wandsworth LBC, Thamesfield:  Conservative 1910 (48.9%, -1.1%), Labour 1101 (28.2%, +10.7%), Liberal Democrats 619 (15.9%, +6.3%), Green 275 (7.0%, -9.9%). The absence of a Green candidate in Gosp...

My analysis of British by-elections from 02/11/17 and a tribute to Derek Robinson

Readers, the results of British local by-elections of 2 November 2017 were as follows: Arun DC, Aldwick West: Liberal Democrats 719 (52.7%, +33.5%), Conservative 480 (35.2%, -13.3%), Labour 112 (8.2%), Green 54 (4.0%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative. Buckinghamshire CC, Beaconsfield: Conservative 1298 (81.3%, +11.1%), Liberal Democrats 299 (18.7%, +2.5%).   Copeland DC, Egremont South: Labour 354 (52.4%, +12.4%), Conservative 321 (47.6%, +20.1%). North Devon DC, Braunton East: Liberal Democrats 459 (37.1%, +3.0%), Green 387 (31.5%), Conservative 225 (18.2%, -17.5%), Labour 165 (13.3%, +6.3%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative. Sefton MBC, Duke's: Liberal Democrats 1680 (56.0%, +28.4%), Conservative 790 (26.3%, -9.4%), Labour 417 (13.9%, -2.3%), UKIP 69 (2.3%, -13.5%), Green 45 (1.5%, -3.1%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative; all changes are since 2015. South Buckinghamshire DC, Beaconsfield North: Conservative 441 (, Liberal Democrats...