Alan's Green Thoughts

The Israeli general election of 23 March 2021, where results were not finalised for another 2 days due to the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, showed a significant partisan fragmentation that will make breaking the deadlock even harder than last year. This is also the fourth Israeli general election in less than 2 years, with the 23rd Knesset having lasted  one year, the longest of the past three Knessets. Likud, the main conservative party of Israel, lost 7 seats, bringing it down to 30, despite the collapse of the main opposition coalition of last year's Israeli election, the centrist Blue & White Alliance. It is clear that Benjamin Netanyahu's determination to continue despite pending corruption charges against him and widespread protests against his subpar handling of the coronavirus pandemic in May and August 2020 is tarnishing Likud's reputation amongst conservative Israeli voters, especially those of a more religious (as opposed to secular) outlook, since Lik...

Despite the fact that Mark Rutte's VVD (People's Party For Freedom & Democracy)-led government resigned two months ago over a scandal involving extensive child welfare fraud, Dutch voters returned his coalition government to power and with an increased majority overall, after counting the seat totals of the component parties. The VVD in fact increased its seat total by 2 to 35, although much of its increase came in the commuter belts around the Randstad conurbation and in the central Netherlands. In progressively inclined municipalities, especially university cities, the VVD's vote actually decreased somewhat. Much of the VVD's vote increase came in municipalities where the Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) used to be the "plural force" (the party achieving the most votes in that municipality; political dominance does not exist in the accepted sense of the term in Dutch politics), although as I explained in my analysis of the 2017 Dutch general election lo...

The Baden-Wurttenberg and Rhineland-Palatine Landtag elections that took place yesterday in Germany were both marked by one common factor-the Green wave continuing to wash over the land. The Greens are already the senior coalition partner in Baden-Wurttenberg under Winfried Kretschmann, but there they set a new record by winning so many seats at single member constituency level that for the first time they did not win any list seats; furthermore an extra 11 overhang seats had to be added. They won 58 seats, easily enough to keep them in power, and on an increase of just 2.3%; their junior coalition partners, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) saw their vote share drop by 2.9% but their seat total remained the same as in 2016 (42 seats) due to the creation of those extra overhang seats. It is clear that Herr Kretschmann's moderate green stance warms over moderate CDU voters relatively easily, especially as climate change becomes such a critical issue in politics around the world. ...

  Alongside the 2021 county council elections, numerous authorities whose elections were delayed from May 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic, alongside the Metropolitan Borough of Doncaster which holds its full council elections during the county council election cycle, will be up for election this year, making 6 May 2021 the busiest local election day in British history.  Of the unitary authority elections happening this year (outside unitarised counties), Bristol's will be the most competitive and most prominent, especially with the Bristol Region Mayoral election taking place alongside it (which also involves most of the former county of Avon) and the fact it is holding full council elections, alongside Halton, Hartlepool, Warrington, and the two new authorities of North Northamptonshire and West Northamptonshire which replace Northamptonshire County Council and all its districts. (15 other unitary authorities which do not normally hold elections in county council electio...

  Readers, with the 2021 local elections in the United Kingdom now definitely taking place (in fact restrictions on canvassing will be lifted soon), it is time to make predictions about how many counties, and unitary authorities covering former county council areas, will change hands in terms of control. The majority of county councils up for election are safely Conservative, but many key battleground constituencies (pending boundary changes from the 2023 review) are within the boundaries of county council areas. Furthermore the aftermath of Brexit could lead to substantial Liberal Democrat and Green gains in county council divisions off-limits to Labour which also have a well-educated population. On recent opinion polls, Labour have been closing the gap with the Conservatives despite Sir Keir Starmer's relative lack of charisma and prowess, although the "vaccine bounce" has allowed the Conservatives under Boris Johnson to return almost to their 2019 vote share, having be...

The Liechtenstein general election of 2021 that took place on Sunday was the first European general election to take place this year, and even with only 25 seats in its Landtag and an 8% election threshold (equating to 2 seats) it produced an interesting result. Both the two largest parties in Liechtenstein, the Patriotic Union and the Progressive Citizens' Party (actually the more conservative of these two), gained seats, but by just 23 votes it was the liberal-conservative Patriotic Union that emerged top of the poll, and furthermore the Patriotic Union gained 2 seats with the Progressive Citizens' Party gaining just 1, giving them both 10 seats. The Patriotic Union gained considerable support from the collapse of the Independents List (a collection of independents rather than a true political party) which lost all 5 of its seats, primarily due to the formation of a splinter group, Democrats for Liechtenstein, in protest against the expulsion from the Independents of Erich Ha...

Yesterday, Captain Sir Tom Moore, famous for raising over £32 million for the NHS during the coronavirus crisis having initially intended to raise the more modest sum of £1000, passed away, from coronavirus. During the first few months of the initial lockdown in Spring 2020, Captain Sir Tom, knighted for his efforts and also given the honorary rank of colonel, inspired so much hope to so many during that difficult time when he completed those walks to raise money for the NHS, and also when healthcare staff were under so much pressure, and still are. He also became the oldest person to record a UK number one single, when he recorded a cover version of "You'll Never Walk Alone" with Michael Ball. That same day, Maureen Colquhoun, the first openly lesbian MP in the UK and an important campaigner for women's rights inside and outside of Parliament, passed away as well. Her time as Labour MP for Northampton North was short and colourful to say the least, but she was clearl...