Election predictions for 2021: counties

 Readers, with the 2021 local elections in the United Kingdom now definitely taking place (in fact restrictions on canvassing will be lifted soon), it is time to make predictions about how many counties, and unitary authorities covering former county council areas, will change hands in terms of control. The majority of county councils up for election are safely Conservative, but many key battleground constituencies (pending boundary changes from the 2023 review) are within the boundaries of county council areas. Furthermore the aftermath of Brexit could lead to substantial Liberal Democrat and Green gains in county council divisions off-limits to Labour which also have a well-educated population.

On recent opinion polls, Labour have been closing the gap with the Conservatives despite Sir Keir Starmer's relative lack of charisma and prowess, although the "vaccine bounce" has allowed the Conservatives under Boris Johnson to return almost to their 2019 vote share, having been hovering around 40% for much of 2020 (when the last county council elections were held, the Conservatives had a more decisive polling lead over Labour). Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats are struggling to find their way in the aftermath of Brexit, with poll ratings almost always below 10%, whilst the Greens have overtaken the Liberal Democrats in recent polls, a key sign of how important the issues of climate change and social justice will be in these local elections. Increased geographical concentrations of votes will be a key factor than ever before; the majority of election maps of county councils, much like that of the 2019 general election map, look like a comparatively vast blue sea with islands of red, yellow, and green.

So, with the spectre of the aftermath of Brexit and demographic change, which counties (counting unitarised county councils for this purpose) could change hands? (NB: County council elections in Cumbria, North Yorkshire and Somerset have been postponed to next year due to consultations on local government reorganisation in these counties)

Conservative hold:

Buckinghamshire (new unitarised county), Derbyshire, Devon, Essex, Hampshire, Hertfordshire, Kent, Leicestershire, Lincolnshire, Norfolk, Shropshire, Staffordshire, Suffolk, Surrey, Warwickshire, West Sussex, Wiltshire, Worcestershire.

Conservative lose to NOC:

Cambridgeshire, East Sussex, Gloucestershire, Isle of Wight, Lancashire.

Labour hold:

Durham.

NOC hold:

Cornwall, Northumberland, Nottinghamshire, Oxfordshire.



Comments

  1. A Brown28 February 2021 at 01:29

    I expect Labour to be the largest party on Derbyshire County council. They should 'gain' Belper, the two Buxton wards, the Glossop wards and Ruth George will hold Whaley Bridge ward. I think the Greens will win Chapel and Hope Valley ward because they won the two Hope Valley wards in 2019

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Alan B3 March 2021 at 20:11

      I predict as much, but due to demographic changes having taken root in the east of the county I do not expect Labour to regain overall control of Derbyshire County Council.

      Delete

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