Elections 2026 - Stirring up the Senedd

The 2026 Senedd election, the first Senedd election using solely proportional representation with no first past the post element involved unlike in the last 6 Senedd elections, saw a sea change for Welsh politics. 

For the first time ever, Plaid Cymru won an election in Wales, having hitherto being stymied by their difficulty in appealing to voters who were neither native Welsh (Cymraeg) speakers nor fluent in Welsh. They won it convicingly as well, winning 43 of the 96 available seats in the Senedd (which previously had 60 seats, 40 single member constituencies plus 20 list seats, 4 per region) and 35.4% of the vote. Amidst the 16 new constituencies (created for expediency by simply pairing existing Westminster seats, despite major geographical issues involving Gwynedd Faldwyn [Gwynedd & Montgomeryshire], Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd [Brecon and the Tawe Valley], and Bangor Conwy Mon [covering Conwy & Ynys Mon/Anglesey] in particular; it would have been far better to simply use the 2021 census figures, divide the electorate of Wales by 96, and then pair local authorities and assign seat entitlements accordingly which would have been more localised as well, and 6 member seats are not very proportional in practice), Plaid Cymru topped the poll in 11, and won at least 2 seats in every Senedd constituency, even those containing relatively few Welsh speakers such as Sir Fynwy Torfaen (Monmouthshire & Torfaen, in practice East Monmouthshire) and Clwyd (which actually corresponds to West Denbighshire, since Flintshire and Wrexham/Wrecsam were also in the now defunct county of Clwyd). It was a decisive rejection of Labour that led Plaid Cymru to a sweep of the Senedd, although nevertheless Plaid's strongest results were in constituencies with high proportions of Welsh speakers, as highlighted by them winning 4 seats out of 6 in Gwynedd Maldwyn and 3 in Sir Gaerfyrddin, enough to ensure Adam Price, the former Plaid leader (and MP for Carmarthen East & Dinefwr from 2001-10) who was uncertain of remaining in the Senedd after being placed 3rd on the list there, was re-elected. In many landslide victories, there is however the unlucky person who will lose out, especially with the new system forcing a game of musical chairs, and in Plaid's case that unlucky person was Luke Fletcher, who was defeated in Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg (Bridgend & the Vale of Glamorgan) having been placed 3rd on Plaid's list in that constituency, and Plaid Cymru only missed out on winning a 3rd seat (which would have shut Labour out of that constituency) by 1.3%. Last year, Mr Fletcher, despite being the only incumbent Plaid Cymru MS to contest selection for Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg, lost out on the top 2 Plaid Cymru spots to Mark Hooper and Sarah Rees, the latter of whom partly benefitted from a Plaid Cymru requirement for their Senedd lists to be gender-alternating. (The other Plaid Cymru MS for South Wales West, Sioned Williams, successfully gained selection for, and was elected in, Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd).

Predictably, Reform finished a strong second due to winning over many disaffected Labour voters in the former coalfields of Glamorgan and Gwent, as well as coastal towns that had fallen on hard times (e.g. Rhyl, Milford Haven) and industrial towns with low proportions of Welsh speakers (e.g. Flint, Bagilt, and Connah's Quay) in addition to large numbers of ex-Conservative rural voters in for example Powys. Reform won 34 seats from almost nowhere (they polled just 1.1% in 2021, nowhere winning any seats), topping the poll in 5 Senedd constituencies, namely Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd, Casnewydd Islwyn (Newport & Islwyn), Clwyd, Fflint Wrecsam (Flintshire & Wrexham), and Sir Fynwy Torfaen, 3 of which contain constituencies where Plaid Cymru have never even saved their deposit at a Westminster election (counting close predecessor seats). Of the 34, 2 were sitting ex-Conservative MSs, Laura Anne Jones, who was easily elected in Sir Fynwy Torfaen, and James Evans, elected in Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd; 10 other former Conservatives were also elected amongst Reform's ranks, namely Llyr Powell in Blaenau Gwent Caerffilli Rhymni (Blaenau Gwent, Caerphilly and Rhymney), Iain MacIntosh in Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd, Dan Thomas in Casnewydd Islwyn, Adrian Mason and Thomas Montgomery in Clwyd, Claire Johnson-Wood in Gwynedd Maldwyn, Francesca O'Brien in Gwyr Abertawe (Gower & Swansea), Sarah Cooper-Lessadd in Pen-y-Bont Bro Morgannwg, Jason O'Connell and Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr (Pontypridd, Merthyr & Aberdare), and Stephen Senior in Sir Fynwy Torfaen, meaning that more than 1/3 of Reform's newly elected MSs were once members of the Conservative Party. Reform's best result percentage-wise was in fact in Blaenau Gwent Caerfilli Rhymni, containing the areas once represented by NHS founder Aneurin Bevan and former Labour leader Michael Foot. It was Reform's perceived lack of respect for the Welsh language or Welsh devolution that prevented them from topping the poll despite being considered the only challenger to Labour amongst the former coalfields.

Labour, having dominated Welsh politics for over a century, were decisively rejected by the Welsh electorate in this Senedd election, enduring the ignominy of finishing a poor 3rd with a comparatively miserable 11.1% of the vote, and electing just 9 MSs; notably (Baroness) Eluned Morgan, the outgoing leader of the Senedd, lost her seat after failing to come close to winning a seat in Ceredigion Benfro (Ceredigion & Pembrokeshire), as did 7 other Labour MSs. Before this election, nearly half of their Senedd contingent (13 in all) announced they would be standing down, which only further harmed Labour's chances. Like in England and Scotland, Labour was rejected in Wales because of their record in government, not to mention recent scandals, most prominently involving (once Lord) Peter Mandelson. Even in the other 2 Senedd elections that occurred at low points for the then Labour government (2003 and 2007), Labour had still finished 1st. The greater choice available to voters in Wales compared to those 2 elections (counting parties perceived to actually have a chance of winning seats, that is) made it easier for voters in hitherto Labour strongholds to cast old voting traditions aside, especially with a greater proportion of the population having been educated at degree level than before. Notably, Labour did not elect more than 1 MS in any constituency, and failed to elect any in Blaenau Gwent Caerffilli Rhymni and came shockingly close to not electing any in Fflint Wrecsam as well. Labour's one crumb of comfort in the aftermath was Huw Irranca-Davies subsequently being elected as Llywydd, or Speaker, of the Senedd.

The Conservatives, just like in England and Scotland, have been on the wane since decisively losing the 2024 general election, to the point where they are rarely polling even 2nd in opinion polls, and sometimes as low as 4th. Like Labour, they did not finish 2nd in any Senedd constituency and in only 7 Senedd constituencies did they even finish ahead of Labour despite coming not far behind Labour in terms of overall vote share, 10.7%. The defection of 2 of their MSs (as noted above) to Reform less than a year before this Senedd election was scheduled led many socially conservative voters to believe that Reform was in the long-term going to replace the beleaguered Conservatives, who lost 5 of their sitting MSs, although unlike Labour their leader, Darren Millar, held his seat; in fact one opinion poll predicted he would be the only Conservative MS to retain his seat. That said, although 7 Conservative MSs were elected, all 7 had been elected at the previous Senedd election in 2021 and 4 (more than half) had served in the Senedd before the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020; not a single new Conservative MS was elected anywhere this year and none of those who were re-elected are under the age of 40 (in fact Janet Finch-Saunders, aged 68, is now the oldest member of the Senedd), further adding to the perception of the Conservatives being yesteryear's opposition. Their best results, unlike those of Labour's, were in seats containing old strongholds: Ceredigion Benfro, Clwyd (the only Senedd constituency where their vote share exceeded 20%), and Sir Fynwy Torfaen, which also proportionally had their lowest vote share decreases. Like Labour above, it is unlikely the Conservatives will become a major force in the Senedd again for the foreseeable future.

Due to Plaid Cymru, somewhat like the SNP in Scotland, being able to portray themselves as moderate progressives in addition to nationalists, it has not been easy for the Liberal Democrats and the Greens at Senedd elections to make breakthroughs. The Green Party did win Senedd seats for the first time, but only won 2 when they were in some polls predicted to win at least double that, and both of those were in the Welsh capital, Cardiff via Caerdydd Ffynon Taf (Cardiff & Taff's Well, effectively Cardiff North & Cardiff East) and Caerdydd Penarth (Cardiff South & Penarth, also incorporating Cardiff West). They were widely expected to win the latter with former Plaid Werdd Deputy Leader Anthony Slaughter, but surprisingly only narrowly managed to win the last seat in the former with Paul Rock, ousting Conservative MS Joel James and thwarting the Liberal Democrats' Rodney Berman in one of the few remaining areas of significant Liberal Democrat support in Wales. Arguably their recent shift further to the left in economic terms harmed their progress elsewhere, particularly Ceredigion Benfro and Sir Fynwy Torfaen. As for the Liberal Democrats, they only won a single Senedd seat in Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd, which contains their only Welsh seat in Westminster and where they were fielding a popular incumbent, Jane Dodds. Whilst did they advance signficantly in Caerdydd Ffynon Taf and Gwyr Abertawe it was not quite enough to win a seat in either. 

No minor party made any significant impact in this Senedd election; in fact the Heritage Party was the only party outside the largest 6 to even field a list in every Senedd constituency, and they still polled just 0.4%, polling only above 1% in just Afan Ogwr Rhondda. Gwlad, aligning themselves as a more fiscally liberal pro-independence party, found their already low vote share decreasing in most of the Senedd constituencies they contested, and only the Propel list in Caerdydd Penarth was amongst the minor party lists to finish ahead of any major party anywhere, with former Plaid Cymru MS Neil McEvoy polling more than 1 1/2 times the Liberal Democrats in that constituency, which in any case is one of their weakest. Nevertheless, even if he and his wife Ceri had not stood, Plaid would still have elected 3 MSs in Caerdydd Penarth. Independent candidates in fact made more of an impact - Russell George, who had been suspended from the Conservatives over the 2024 betting scandal that cost Craig Williams his seat of Montgomeryshire & Glyndwr (the succesor to Montgomeryshire), polled 3.5%, enough to cause the Conservatives to fail to win a seat in Gwynedd Maldwyn they otherwise would have narrowly won even though Mr George initially said he would stand down at this election, changing his mind only weeks before the close of nominations. Beth Winter, who had represented the now defunct Cynon Valley constituency from 2019-24 and subsequently found herself out of Parliament after losing the selection for Merthyr Tydfil & Aberdare to Gerald Jones, polled 3.2%, nearly twice the vote share the Liberal Democrats managed, but it was not enough to make a difference as to seats gained or lost. Caroline Jones, having previously been expected to run as a Reform candidate but who subsequently left Reform over allegations of candidate parachuting, polled just 0.8% in Pen-y-bont Bro Morganwwg where she had hoped to run for Reform; this election also proved to be Ms Jones' swansong as she died of sepsis just a week after the election. Rhys ab Owen, who had been expelled from Plaid Cymru after having been suspended from the Senedd for 6 weeks after having been found by the Senedd Standards Commission to have engaged in inappropriate conduct towards constituents, polled just 0.5% in Caerdydd Penarth, although amazingly this was more than the Communist and Heritage lists combined (he polled 414 votes, the Communist Party just 211, and the Heritage Party an even lower 198). The wooden spoon for this Senedd election went to an unknown Independent called Welsh Pool, who polled just 45 votes in Sir Fynwy Torfaen. Why he chose this name is a mystery; the better known town of Welshpool is in fact in Montgomeryshire. 

With a more proportional voting system than before, turnout rose to 51.6%, the highest ever for a Senedd election, which like the turnout rise in England is reflective of greater voter choice and a desire by younger voters in particular to reject "legacy" parties. Even though Plaid Cymru fell 6 seats short of a majority, Rhun ap Iorwerth, the first ever First Minister for Wales not from the Labour Party, nevertheless had no issues forming a new Senedd Cabinet, although no party officially pledged confidence and supply to his administration in the 5 days from the final result being declared to his Cabinet being formally appointed. He will require this in future, however.