Election predictions - Scottish Parliament and the Senedd

 It has taken me a while to get around to this, unfortunately, but in terms of election predictions the Scottish Parliament and the Senedd in Wales must not be overlooked.

In particular, the Senedd's switch from a Mixed Member Proportional system (40 single member constituencies, 20 list seats with 4 per region) to a closed list proportional representation system (96 seats, with election by 16 6-member constituencies) will result in a radical shake-up of the Senedd, especially with Plaid Cymru and Reform UK currently fighting to top the poll in Wales and Labour predicted to finish no better than 3rd, and possibly even 4th. Even with the shine coming off Reform UK in Wales just like in England and Scotland, Plaid Cymru is not guaranteed to top the poll because its appeal in English-speaking areas will always be somewhat limited by its key raison d'etre, even though it will undoubtedly win over more Labour voters than Reform UK will across Wales with the exception of Flintshire (Fflint) and the city of Newport (Casnewydd). Since 1922, with the exception of the 2019 European Parliament election, Labour has always topped the poll in Wales, counting both general elections concerning Welsh constituencies and since 1999 the Welsh Assembly (now the Senedd). The malaise Labour is encountering in England is now spreading to Scotland and Wales, and it is in Wales where Labour will suffer its biggest defeat, especially in Glamorgan and Gwent which had once been two of its most loyal areas. Meanwhile, the Conservatives, despite having endured only one defection to Reform within the Senedd (Laura Anne Jones), are struggling to find relevance in Wales just as they are in the rest of the UK, and only during the Brexit transition period was Wales ever remotely good territory for the Conservatives politically. The Liberal Democrats have a limited base outside the upmarket areas of Cardiff and Swansea (Caerdydd ac Abertawe) with their old rural base having largely disappeared outside tourist haven Powys which unlike Ceredigion and Gwynedd has a low proportion of Welsh speakers. The Green Party, as previously, will struggle to compete with Plaid Cymru for the progressive liberal vote except in Cardiff where Plaid Cymru's base is more limited, and Monmouthshire which has the lowest support for Plaid amongst Welsh counties and a growing well-heeled, well-educated commuter base which will turn substantially to the Greens as it will in much of urban England. Numerous independents are contesting the election as well despite the great difficulty independent candidates have in winning list seats anywhere in the world - and in this Senedd election, only former Labour MP Beth Winter has even an outside chance of winning a Senedd seat amongst the independent candidates standing for the Senedd this year. As for the other parties, none of them are fielding a full list anywhere and only Heritage is even on the ballot paper in every Senedd constituency amidst minor parties- and like in the 2024 general election they will almost certainly register a derisory vote.

Over in Scotland, which is still using MMP and also new constituency boundaries for its single member constituencies (the SNP are still likely to top the poll despite having been on a downturn since Nicola Sturgeon resigned as First Minister in 2022 (she is also standing down from the Scottish Parliament entirely at this election), which culminated in their drubbing at the 2024 general election, with a further loss of Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse in the Scottish Parliament to Labour just after Labour lost the Runcorn & Helsby by-election in the UK Parliament to Reform. The disappearance of Alba, which folded in March, will not help them much. The bigger question is whether Reform UK will emerge as the official opposition instead of Labour even though they are very unlikely to win any single member constituencies in the Scottish Parliament, even on the Aberdeenshire coast; they will however cost the Conservatives the chance to regain key marginal constituencies from the SNP such as Ayr. Labour is interestingly enough polling at or within one standard deviation of the vote share (counting reliable opinion polls with sample sizes >1000) they actually achieved in 2021, although any seats they win at constituency level will be countered by losses at list level with more parties entering the Scottish Parliament. The Scottish Greens, despite only standing in a minority of Scottish Parliament constituencies as before, now have a chance of winning a seat at single member constituency level as well as at list level (where they are currently predicted to increase their seats by at least 50%), with the constituency in question almost certainly being either Edinburgh Central or Edinburgh North Eastern & Leith. The Liberal Democrats will likely win only 1-2 extra list seats at most - outside the constituencies they currently hold in the Scottish Parliament they have ceased to be competitive elsewhere with the possible exception of Strathkelvin & Bearsden, which contains some of the wealthiest and best-educated areas in Scotland. Even then, they will have to win it from 4th place. None of the independent candidates or minor parties standing, except for ex-SNP Fergus Ewing in Inverness & Nairn and the Workers Party in Glasgow (whose list is topped not by George Galloway, the WP leader who was a Labour MP in Glasgow from 1987-2005 representing Glasgow Hillhead and then Glasgow Kelvin, but by Yvonne Ridley), will make a significant impact; the late Margo McDonald is the only independent ever to have been elected an MSP via the list vote. The extreme right Independent Green Voice arguably cost the Scottish Greens 1 or 2 list seats in 2021 by unintentionally confusing voters but the Scottish Greens are polling well enough to obviate this.

With the above in mind, my predictions for each Senedd constituency in terms of seats won are as follows:

Afan Ogwr Rhondda: Plaid Cymru 2, Reform UK 2, Labour 2.

Bangor Conwy Mon: Plaid Cymru 3, Reform UK 1, Labour 1, Conservative 1.

Blaenau Gwent Caerffilli Rhymni: Plaid Cymru 3, Reform UK 2, Labour 1.

Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd: Reform UK 2, Plaid Cymru 1, Labour 1, Liberal Democrats 1, Green 1.

Caerdydd Ffynnon Taf: Labour 2, Reform UK 1, Plaid Cymru 1, Green 1, Liberal Democrats 1.

Caerdydd Penarth: Plaid Cymru 2, Green 1, Labour 1, Reform UK 1, Conservative 1.

Casnweydd Islwyn: Reform UK 2, Plaid Cymru 2, Labour 1, Conservative 1.

Ceredigion Benfro: Plaid Cymru 2,, Labour 1, Green 1, Reform UK 1, Conservative 1.

Clwyd: Reform UK 2, Plaid Cymru 2, Labour 1, Conservative 1.

Fflint Wrecsam: Reform UK 3, Labour 1, Plaid Cymru 1, Conservative 1.

Gwynedd Maldwyn: Plaid Cymru 2, Reform UK 1, Labour 1, Liberal Democrats 1, Conservative 1.

Gwyr Abertawe: Plaid Cymru 2, Reform UK 1, Labour 1, Green 1, Conservative 1.

Pen-y-Bont Bro Morgannwg: Reform UK 2, Plaid Cymru 2, Labour 2.

Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr: Plaid Cymru 3, Reform UK 2, Labour 1.

Sir Fynwy Torfaen: Reform UK 2, Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1, Conservative 1.

Sir Gaerfyrddin: Plaid Cymru 3, Reform UK 2, Labour 1.

Total: Plaid Cymru 32, Reform UK 27, Labour 22, Conservative 7, Green 5, Liberal Democrats 3.

And for the Scottish Parliament (totals):

SNP 56, Labour 24, Reform UK 17, Green 14, Conservative 12, Liberal Democrats 5, Workers Party 1.