Alan's Green Thoughts

Readers, the results of British local by-elections from the last 3 weeks of May 2022 were as follows: (12/5/22): Lewes DC, Peacehaven West: Labour 641 (54.7%), Conservative 467 (39.8%, +12.0%), Green 32 (2.7%, -13.7%), Liberal Democrats 32 (2.7%, -15.1%). Labour gain from Conservative [No Independent or UKIP candidates this time] Waverley DC, Frensham, Dockenfield & Tilford : Independent 492 (42.1%), Green 354 (30.3%, -4.2%), Conservative 323 (27.6%, -20.6%). Independent gain from Conservative. [Labour did not stand] (19/5/22): Lancaster BC, Ellel: Green 547 (39.7%, +20.2%), Labour 418 (30.4%, -1.9%), Conservative 377 (27.4%, -14.6%), Liberal Democrats 35 (2.5%, -3.7%). Green gain from Conservative. (25/5/22) Spelthorne BC, Lakeham & Shepperton Green: Green 903 (51.7%, +31.1%), Conservative 775 (44.4%, +11.6%), TUSC 69 (3.9%). Green gain from Conservative. [Liberal Democrats, Labour, and UKIP did not stand] (26/5/22): Gedling BC, Gedling : Labour 693 (39.4%, -13.5%), Conserv...

The Australian federal election of 2022 marked significant electoral sea change in Australia, and not just because of the convincing defeat of Scott Morrison's Liberal/National government. With Labor, the Greens, and "Teal" Independents all uniting against them, the Liberal/National Government dropped to just 58 seats out of 151, worse even than John Howard's defeat in 2007 (and Mr Howard actually lost his own seat, Bennelong, in that election), representing a loss of 18 seats. They also lost 4 of their Senate seats. Not only was Mr Morrison's personal unpopularity a dominating factor in the campaign, but more importantly so were environmental issues and Mr Morrison's inability to tackle them effectively, even after forest fires in Australia made international headlines as a warning about the consequences of global warming. Several Liberal seats that had withstood even Mr Howard's drubbing in 2007, such as Grey and Tangney, fell. Their most notable defeats...

What conclusions can be drawn from the 2022 United Kingdom local elections? 1. The 2022 United Kingdom local elections have further entrenched the long-term political divides showcased in the 2019 and 2021 local election results, as shown by the few councils where the Conservatives gained seats having already done so in 2021 and also the councils where they lost control and/or were nearly wiped out, and this will undoubtedly reflect somewhat on general election results come late 2023 or 2024 (even accounting for boundary changes), and by the types of councils all four main parties contesting seats in England (Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, and Green) perform well in. Many of these changes will not be reversed for years, if ever, since they are pushed by factors beyond the control of any government or political party e.g. rising house prices driving progressive voters out of London, Brighton etc. and into formerly safely Conservative towns within their reach (e.g. Worthing). 2....

Northern Ireland's councils are not next up for election until 2024, but its Assembly election represented a sea change in Northern Irish politics in many respects, as much as is possible with a Single Transferable Vote system and religious sectarianism still dominating its politics. Sinn Fein, for the very first time, managed to top the Assembly poll with 27 seats, even though this represented no change from 2017, and their vote share only improved to 29%. This happened due to the Alliance Party, the most significant non-sectarian party in Northern Ireland, making a substantial breakthrough by more than doubling its seat total to 17 and finishing third overall, although most of its gains were in heavily unionist constituencies of Northern Ireland, especially County Antrim and County Down, the two counties neighbouring Belfast. This stride, which builds on the substantial progress they made in the 2019 general election, is reflective of Northern Irish society becoming increasingly ...

  Just as interesting as the results of the local elections in England were those in both Scotland and Wales. The Conservatives endured significant losses in Scotland and Wales just like they did in England; within Scotland they lost 63 councillors which was enough to put them third in terms of council seats in Scotland behind Labour, who have been on the downturn in Scotland ever since the SNP achieved almost a clean sweep of Scotland's Westminster constituencies in 2015. Notable losses included half their seats in Edinburgh, the Scottish capital and the most strongly unionist of Scotland's cities, all but two of their seats in Glasgow, half their seats in East Dunbartonshire, and nearly half their seats in Fife, showing that middle-class unionist areas of Scotland have sharply turned against Boris Johnson's brand of Conservatism, and the consequences of Brexit; they even lost largest party status in East Renfrewshire to the SNP. Conversely, the Conservatives held up bette...

The 2022 United Kingdom local elections, particularly in Greater London but also elsewhere in England, in many ways further enforce a new political era in the United Kingdom.  The Conservatives' losses were not as high as many media outlets predicted, but it is important to remember that they were defending significantly fewer wards than in 2019, especially with the creation of the new unitary authorities of Cumberland, North Yorkshire, Somerset, and Westmorland & Furness which replace the respective county councils and districts of those areas from next year. They lost a total of 336 seats overall notionally (there were extensive boundary changes in many London boroughs, as well as some metropolitan boroughs including St Helens), including 84 net losses in Greater London alone even accounting for the gains they made in Harrow, the only council they gained overall control of this year. Retaining control of Newcastle-under-Lyme was their only other crumb of comfort. In Greater L...