My analysis of British local by-elections from 24 March 2022

Readers, the results of British local by-elections that occurred on 24 March 2022 were as follows:

Horsham DC, Denne: Liberal Democrats 832 (46.0%, -5.8%), Conservative 628 (34.7%, -0.1%), Labour 241 (13.3%, +0.0%), Green 107 (5.9%).

Northumberland UA, Seghill with Seaton Delaval: Conservative 702 (55.6%, +1.1%), Labour 511 (40.5%, -5.1%), Green 29 (2.7%), Liberal Democrats 21 (2.3%).

Test Valley DC, North Baddesley: Liberal Democrats 1,095 (63.9%, -6.9%), Conservative 618 (36.1%, +6.9%)

Thanet DC, Nethercourt: Labour 505 (55.5%, +18.6%), Conservative 230 (25.3%, -1.5%), Thanet Independents 175 (19.2%). [Greens and UKIP did not stand]

The next local elections are now just six weeks away, and the result in Seghill with Seaton Delaval-two former pit villages made famous by the folk song "Blackleg Miner"-is a telling sign that despite Conservative woes Labour is still somewhat struggling to regain ground in former strongholds, although many of these are affected by demographic change that will push them further towards the Conservatives anyway. In Seghill with Seaton Delaval's case, this is enhanced by residents wanting to move out of Newcastle-upon-Tyne but remain within commuting distance and plans for restoration of the railway link within the Blyth Valley, Seaton Delaval will get its own station although the line itself will not see passenger service (it is currently only used by freight trains) until December 2023 at the earliest.

The Liberal Democrats did not perform particularly well this week but held both seats that they were defending easily. Labour's strong performance in Nethercourt is not only explained by the fact there was no Green candidate standing in that ward but also due to Thanet experiencing demographic change as, like Southend, Londoners with a liberal and progressive outlook who cannot afford to live in traditional bohemian hotspots such as Shoreditch and Stoke Newington are moving in slowly but surely, although a large traditional Isle of Thanet element remains. This is a key reason why, despite having been a top UKIP target in 2015 (Nigel Farage himself was the UKIP candidate in South Thanet in 2015), and one of only 40 seats where UKIP saved their deposit in 2017, the swing from Labour to Conservative in South Thanet (which covers a majority of the Isle of Thanet's electors) in 2019 was only average (4.5%); furthermore, the Green contingent on Isle of Thanet council will also likely grow significantly when Thanet holds its next full council election next year.


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