My analysis of British local by-elections from the first fortnight of March 2022

 Readers, the results of British local by-elections held on 3 March and 10 March 2022 were as follows:

(3/3/2022):

East Lindsey DC, Halton Holgate: Conservative 306 (66.2%, +41.5%), Labour 156 (33.8%, +25.7%). Conservative gain from Independent. [No Independent candidates this time]

Essex CC, Rayleigh North: Liberal Democrats 1,658 (57.4%, +12.3%), Conservative 929 (32.2%, -11.8%), Independent (Lawmon) 164 (5.7%), Labour 137 (4.7%, -6.1%)

New Forest DC, Hythe West & Langdon: Liberal Democrats 559 (44.6%, -23.2%), Conservative 497 (39.7%, +7.5%), Labour 153 (12.2%), Matthew Kitcher 44 (3.5%).

Rochford DC, Downhall & Roweth: Liberal Democrats 791 (71.5%, +9.5%), Conservative 265 (23.9%, -5.4%), Labour 51 (4.6%, -5.1%). All changes are since May 2021.

Sevenoaks DC, Brasted, Chevening & Sundridge: Conservative 820 (58.7%, +7.9%), Liberal Democrats 524 (37.5%), Labour 52 (3.7%, -16.0%). [No Independent candidates this time]

South Somerset DC, Neroche: Liberal Democrats 390 (52.8%, +26.8%), Conservative 315 (42.6%, -18.8%), Green 19 (2.6%), Labour 15 (2.0%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.

Southend-on-Sea UA, Southchurch: Conservative 1,025 (64.3%, +1.1%), Independent (Badger) 294 (18.4%), Labour 144 (9.0%, -7.3%), Green 87 (5.5%, -2.2%), Liberal Democrats 45 (2.8%, +0.1%). [Other Independent did not stand]

Sunderland MBC, Redhill: Labour 709 (50.2%, +12.6%), Liberal Democrats 386 (27.4%), Conservative 296 (13.9%, -0.3%), UKIP 85 (6.0%, -34.9%), Green 35 (2.5%, -4.8%). Labour gain from UKIP. All changes are since May 2019.

(10/3/2022):

Herefordshire UA, Bromyard West: Independent (Davies) 315 (55.6%), Independent (Ferguson) 152 (26.8%), Conservative 100 (17.6%, -22.2%). Independent gain from It's Our County, who did not defend the seat.

Hertfordshire CC, Hitchin South: Liberal Democrats 2,401 (71.7%, +34.0%), Conservative 690 (20.6%, -16.3%), Green 223 (6.7%, -2.2%), Christian Peoples' Alliance 35 (1.0%). [Labour and TUSC did not stand]

North Hertfordshire DC, Hitchin Highbury: Liberal Democrats 1,238 (67.0%, +18.5%), Conservative 450 (24.3%, -3.7%), Green 134 (7.2%, -1.0%), Christian Peoples' Alliance 27 (1.5%, +0.3%). [Labour did not stand] All changes are since May 2021.

Rutland UA, Ryhall & Casterton: Green 281 (51.2%), Conservative 268 (48.8%, -5.2%). Green gain from Conservative. [No Independent candidates this time]

Even though the Russian invasion of Ukraine has pushed "partygate" scandals off the news headlines, voters have not forgotten about them, especially in areas relatively close to Greater London. In the case of the Hitchin South by-election, one of the few by-elections where the Liberal Democrat vote exceeded 70%, a notable personal vote was involved: Keith Hoskins, who held the seat, had been the town centre manager of Hitchin and had gained considerable respect as a result, which accounts for the 25.1% swing in that by-election, compared to the 11.1% swing in Hitchin Highbury, both of which had been held by Paul Clark, who passed away from COVID-19 last year. The Liberal Democrats did endure a swing of 15.4% in the Hythe West & Langdon (the Hythe in Hampshire, not the Hythe in Kent), but May 2019 was the Conservatives' annus horribilis in the south in local election terms (in some cases more so than in 1995!) and unlike in the preceding 2019 election Labour fielded a candidate which took some anti-Conservative votes. 

Two other by-elections are highlights of continuing inexorable political trends in Britain. The Green gain in Ryhall & Casterton, Rutland shows that the Green gains in rural and small town England are set to continue in the coming years, although this year most rural/small town districts are not up for election (and many boroughs, unitary authorities and metropolitan boroughs are scrapping by thirds elections). Meanwhile, UKIP's spectacular loss in Redhill once again affirms UKIP no longer being relevant to British politics and that their demise as a political party is inevitable (especially with Reform UK having taken up much of their mantle after Brexit), and this was one of the few recent local by-elections where they even stood a candidate. The Liberal Democrats performed well in the latter by-election but it is unlikely they can regain their previous "default protest vote" position in future.


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