My analysis of the Birmingham Erdington by-election

 The results of the Birmingham Erdington by-election, caused by the tragic and sudden death of Jack Dromey, who had served as its Labour MP since 2010 and was also the husband of long-serving Labour MP Harriet Harman, were as follows:

Robert Alden, Conservative, 6,147 (36.3%, -3.8%)

David Bishop, Bus Pass Elvis Party, 8 (0.0%)

Jack Brookes, Reform UK, 293 (1.7%, -2.4%)*

Lee Dargue, Liberal Democrats, 173 (1.0%, -2.7%)

Paulette Hamilton, Labour, 9,413 (55.5%, +5.2%)

Siobhan Harper-Nunes, Green Party, 236 (1.4%, -0.4%)
Clifton Holmes, Independent, 14 (0.1%)

Michael Lutwyche, Independent, 109 (0.6%)

Mel Mbdoniah, Christian Peoples' Alliance, 79 (0.5%)

Dave Nellist, Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition, 360 (2.1%)

Thomas O'Rourke, Independent, 76 (0.4%)

The Good Knight Sir NosDa, Official Monster Raving Loony Party, 49 (0.3%).

Labour HOLD.

With Birmingham Erdington being semi-marginal (although the Conservatives have not won it, or an equivalent constituency, since 1936), this by-election, which received relatively little coverage primarily due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine making headline news daily from 24 February, was a key test for both Labour and the Conservatives. Paulette Hamilton held the seat on a 4.5% swing, and in doing so became Birmingham's first MP of African descent. The swing was relatively low due to the personal vote of Conservative challenger Robert Alden, who has been a councillor in Erdington ward since 2006 and who belongs to a long-standing Conservative political family in Birmingham (his father, John Alden, came within 680 votes of winning the seat in 1979). Had he not been standing and campaigning the swing to Labour would have been at least twice the amount seen in this by-election, comments Ms Hamilton had allegedly made about two other Labour MPs notwithstanding. The rising cost of living, which will be exacerbated by the crisis in Ukraine, was a key factor in this by-election especially with striking levels of poverty in Birmingham Erdington, and revelations of "partygate" are still reverberating across Britain, with Conservative MPs in particular being seen as out of touch with ordinary people's needs. 

Surprisingly, given that his main base of support has always been in Coventry, not Birmingham, it was TUSC candidate and former Labour MP (for Coventry South East, 1983-92) Dave Nellist who claimed the bronze medal in this by-election, although nevertheless his third place finish is the worst for any third placed candidate since the Winchester by-election of 1997 (where Labour polled 1.7%, even lower than Mr Nellist's vote share of 2.1%). Even though the demographics of this constituency are more favourable than TUSC than most, it is clear that there is no real market for hardline socialism in Britain, although tactical voting played its part as well despite some Labour voters' disdain for Sir Keir Starmer. 

Tactical voting also had a depressing effect on the other parties' vote shares, although the Green vote fared better than most in this regard, seeing a 0.4% decrease in vote share compared to decreases of 2.4% and 2.7% for Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats respectively; it is fair to say that no real headway was possible in a notionally tight Labour-Conservative contest. Independent Justice-4-the-21 (the victims of the 1974 Birmingham pub bombings) Michael Lutwyche polled surprisingly badly, only scraping into a treble figure vote total. The wooden spoon award went to David Bishop and his Bus Pass Elvis Party, effectively a one-man-band frivolous party.

Due to rain on polling day, low media coverage of the by-election, and the generally poor turnout levels of this seat (it often features in the bottom 10 turnouts at general election time), turnout dropped to a dismal 27%, only slightly better than the Southend West by-election of last month whose turnout was 24%. Consequently, it marked the first time since the Cardiff South & Penarth by-election of 2012 that the winner polled less than 10,000 votes in a parliamentary by-election in the UK. This constituency faces significant alteration in the next round of boundary changes, and in future may become genuinely safe or genuinely marginal.





Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

My analysis of the Swedish general election of 2022

The Swedish general election of 2022 generated some surprising results, despite also averting pollsters' predictions significantly. The last three years in particular proved to be a rough ride for the Social Democrat led governments of Stefan Lofven and Magdalena Andersson respectively. Although Sweden's laxer approach to the COVID-19 pandemic (compared to most countries in Europe, which imposed lockdowns during much of 2020 and 2021, an approach that arguably caused more problems than it solved) proved effective, Mr Lofven's desire to lift the austerity tax (which only affected a wealthy minority, similar in nature to the wealth tax initiative of former French President Francois Hollande) and to join NATO proved contentious, with two of the Social Democrats' former coalition partners (the Swedish Greens and Swedish Left Party, who had both pulled out of confidence and supply) unsurprisingly voting against Swedish accession to NATO membership (all other parties in the R
Read more

On the 2020 Serbian election: Why a boycott will only worsen things there

First of all, I apologise for the recent hiatus; however elections are still postponed or on hold in many countries, including the UK. Serbia, however, was able to proceed with its 2020 general election amidst this crisis. Its overall result proved reminiscent of Hungarian elections under Viktor Orban's tenure (2010-present), since the leading national-conservative coalition, the SNS (Progressive Party of Serbia) coalition led by Serbian President Aleksander Vucic (Ana Brnabic is the Serbian Prime Minister, and the first woman and openly homosexual person to hold that position), polled 61.6% of the vote, giving them as many as 191 seats out of 250 and a majority of as high as 132, almost unheard of in any country with proportional representation. Press freedom has endured significant curbs since President Vucic first came into power as Serbian PM in 2012 (he became President of Serbia in 2017), as have civil liberties of Serbs in general. Nepotism and corruption in the Serbian
Read more

On the Spanish regional elections of 2023-a warning for progressives

The Spanish regional elections of 2023, especially those in the "Empty Spain" regions far west of the federal capital of Madrid and prosperous yet famously rebellious Catalonia, resulted in a sharp shift towards conservatism and conservative populism. Both Partido Popular (PP, Spain's equivalent of the Conservatives) and Vox (the Spanish equivalent of Reform UK/UKIP) made sweeping gains in all regions, notably taking overall control in Madrid (normally an impossible feat under Spain's PR system), more than doubling their seat total in Valencia to top the poll there, and wresting control of Asturias, La Rioja, and Cantabria from the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE, Spain's equivalent of Labour) and the Cantabrian Regionalist Party respectively. Under the tenure of Pedro Sanchez, the current PSOE-Podemos coalition is floundering and has not done much to ensure Spain's recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic since the last restrictions ended in 2021, and P
Read more