My analysis of the Birmingham Erdington by-election

 The results of the Birmingham Erdington by-election, caused by the tragic and sudden death of Jack Dromey, who had served as its Labour MP since 2010 and was also the husband of long-serving Labour MP Harriet Harman, were as follows:

Robert Alden, Conservative, 6,147 (36.3%, -3.8%)

David Bishop, Bus Pass Elvis Party, 8 (0.0%)

Jack Brookes, Reform UK, 293 (1.7%, -2.4%)*

Lee Dargue, Liberal Democrats, 173 (1.0%, -2.7%)

Paulette Hamilton, Labour, 9,413 (55.5%, +5.2%)

Siobhan Harper-Nunes, Green Party, 236 (1.4%, -0.4%)
Clifton Holmes, Independent, 14 (0.1%)

Michael Lutwyche, Independent, 109 (0.6%)

Mel Mbdoniah, Christian Peoples' Alliance, 79 (0.5%)

Dave Nellist, Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition, 360 (2.1%)

Thomas O'Rourke, Independent, 76 (0.4%)

The Good Knight Sir NosDa, Official Monster Raving Loony Party, 49 (0.3%).

Labour HOLD.

With Birmingham Erdington being semi-marginal (although the Conservatives have not won it, or an equivalent constituency, since 1936), this by-election, which received relatively little coverage primarily due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine making headline news daily from 24 February, was a key test for both Labour and the Conservatives. Paulette Hamilton held the seat on a 4.5% swing, and in doing so became Birmingham's first MP of African descent. The swing was relatively low due to the personal vote of Conservative challenger Robert Alden, who has been a councillor in Erdington ward since 2006 and who belongs to a long-standing Conservative political family in Birmingham (his father, John Alden, came within 680 votes of winning the seat in 1979). Had he not been standing and campaigning the swing to Labour would have been at least twice the amount seen in this by-election, comments Ms Hamilton had allegedly made about two other Labour MPs notwithstanding. The rising cost of living, which will be exacerbated by the crisis in Ukraine, was a key factor in this by-election especially with striking levels of poverty in Birmingham Erdington, and revelations of "partygate" are still reverberating across Britain, with Conservative MPs in particular being seen as out of touch with ordinary people's needs. 

Surprisingly, given that his main base of support has always been in Coventry, not Birmingham, it was TUSC candidate and former Labour MP (for Coventry South East, 1983-92) Dave Nellist who claimed the bronze medal in this by-election, although nevertheless his third place finish is the worst for any third placed candidate since the Winchester by-election of 1997 (where Labour polled 1.7%, even lower than Mr Nellist's vote share of 2.1%). Even though the demographics of this constituency are more favourable than TUSC than most, it is clear that there is no real market for hardline socialism in Britain, although tactical voting played its part as well despite some Labour voters' disdain for Sir Keir Starmer. 

Tactical voting also had a depressing effect on the other parties' vote shares, although the Green vote fared better than most in this regard, seeing a 0.4% decrease in vote share compared to decreases of 2.4% and 2.7% for Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats respectively; it is fair to say that no real headway was possible in a notionally tight Labour-Conservative contest. Independent Justice-4-the-21 (the victims of the 1974 Birmingham pub bombings) Michael Lutwyche polled surprisingly badly, only scraping into a treble figure vote total. The wooden spoon award went to David Bishop and his Bus Pass Elvis Party, effectively a one-man-band frivolous party.

Due to rain on polling day, low media coverage of the by-election, and the generally poor turnout levels of this seat (it often features in the bottom 10 turnouts at general election time), turnout dropped to a dismal 27%, only slightly better than the Southend West by-election of last month whose turnout was 24%. Consequently, it marked the first time since the Cardiff South & Penarth by-election of 2012 that the winner polled less than 10,000 votes in a parliamentary by-election in the UK. This constituency faces significant alteration in the next round of boundary changes, and in future may become genuinely safe or genuinely marginal.