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Showing posts from October, 2021

My analysis of British local by-elections from the last fortnight of October 2021

  Readers, the results of British local by-elections from the last fortnight of October 2021 (covering 21 October 2021 and 28 October 2021) were as follows: (NB: I was at Green Party conference last weekend, hence why I did not post my analysis of last weekend's by-elections) are as follows: (21/10/21): Birmingham MBC, Yardley East: Liberal Democrats 1,312 (65.3%, +0.4%), Labour 609 (30.3%, +0.1%), Conservative 89 (4.4%, -0.5%). Horsham DC, Forest: Liberal Democrats 921 (47.4%, +8.1%), Labour 517 (26.6%, +4.2%), Conservative 410 (21.1%, +0.7%), Green 97 (5.0%). Newark & Sherwood DC, Rainworth South & Blidworth: Independent (Thompson) 650 (66.2%), Conservative 168 (17.1%, -12.2%), Labour 164 (16.7%, -22.6%). Independent gain from Labour. (28/10/21): Bolton MBC, Bromley Cross: Conservative 1,732 (70.0%, +8.1%), Labour 409 (16.5%, -6.6%), Green 165 (6.7%, -2.3%), Bolton for Change 99 (4.0%), Liberal Democrats 68 (2.7%, -3.2%). All changes are since May 2018, when there was a d...

My tribute to Sir David Amess

Yesterday, Sir David Amess, pro-life and animal welfare campaigner and Conservative MP for Basildon from 1983 to 1997 and Southend West from 1997 to 2021, tragically died when he was stabbed whilst holding a constituency surgery in Leigh-on-Sea. Sir David, being a lifelong Roman Catholic, firmly opposed unnecessary abortions He was also a passionate campaigner for animal rights, pushing through important legislation such as the Protection Against Cruel Tethering Act, and firmly opposed fox hunting of any kind. Finally, he was also dedicated to the seaside town of Southend, campaigning for it to be awarded city status. This is likely to happen at some point in the future, but sadly he will now not be around to see it. Farewell, Sir David. You were cruelly taken from us whilst you were just doing what all MPs are supposed to do-serve the public and liaise with constituents. Sir David Amess, born 26 March 1952, departed this life on 15 October 2021, aged 69 years.

My analysis of British local by-elections from 14 October 2021

  Readers, the results of British local by-elections from yesterday were as follows: Falkirk UA, Falkirk South (1st preference votes): SNP 1,691 (39.2%, +3.5%), Conservative 1,679 (38.9%, +6.8%), Labour 679 (15.7%, -11.4%), Green 267 (6.2%, +1.1%). SNP gain from Labour at stage 4. Harrow LBC, Pinner South: Conservative 1,392 (60.5%, +1.8%), Liberal Democrats 390 (16.9%, +2.3%), Labour 331 (14.4%, -12.3%), Green 188 (8.2%). Surrey Heath BC, Frimley Green: Conservative 896 (48.5%, +20.3%), Liberal Democrats 877 (47.4%, -1.4%), Labour 76 (4.1%). Conservative gain from Liberal Democrats. [UKIP and Pirate Party did not stand] Wigan MBC, Leigh West: Labour 1,004 (56.2%, +2.1%), Conservative 423 (23.7%, +8.2%), Leigh West Independent 257 (14.4%), Liberal Democrats 103 (5.8%, -0.8%). All changes are since May 2018. [Other Independent from 2018 did not stand] It was a strong week for the Conservatives, with UKIP's and Reform UK's absence from the Frimley Green proving decisive to that C...

The Czech legislative election of 2021: Hlasité "ne" takzvané "ano“ party

The 2021 legislative election of the Czech Republic (aka Czechia) resulted in a resounding rejection of the ANO (Czech for yes) party of incumbent PM Andrej Babis; the title of this post means "A resounding no to the so-called yes party" in English. The poll-topper this time was the SPOLU ("Together") alliance led by Petr Fiala's Civic Democratic Party (ODS), and also consisting of previous coalition partners in ODS-led governments, namely the Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL) and TOP 09. They polled 27.8%, narrowly ahead of ANO 2011's 27.1%, although due to seat allocations at regional level it was ANO that won the most seats, 72 compared to SPOLU's 71. Notably, ANO 2011 finished third in the Czech capital, Prague, and did best in areas closest to the borders with Slovakia and Germany. Since taking office in 2017, Mr Babis has been dogged by his past as a secret police informant under Gustav Hacek's regime (Gustav Hacek was communist ruler of Czechoslov...

My analysis of British local by-elections from 7 October 2021

  Readers, the results of British local by-elections from 7 October 2021 were as follows: Flintshire UA, Pennyffordd: Labour 437 (37.4%), Independent (Saxon) 286 (24.5%), Independent (Ransome) 281 (24.2%), Independent (Wakelam) 163 (13.9%). Labour gain from Independent. Nottingham UA, St Ann's: Labour 1,048 (65.5%, +0.8%), Nottingham Independents 204 (11.7%), Conservative 193 (12.1%, +1.9%), Green 92 (5.7%), Liberal Democrats 40 (2.5%, -8.2%), TUSC 24 (1.5%). [No Independents this time] Nottingham UA, Sherwood: Labour 1,174 (47.8%, -18.4%), Nottingham Independents 629 (25.6%), Conservative 320 (13.0%, -0.3%), Green 195 (7.9%), TUSC 76 (3.1%), Liberal Democrats 63 (2.6%, -9.0%). [UKIP did not stand] Rushcliffe BC, Musters: Liberal Democrats 557 (45.3%, -12.9%), Labour 353 (28.7%, +9.3%), Conservative 320 (26.0%, +3.6%). Somerset CC Comeytrowe & Trull: Liberal Democrats 1,677 (63.2%, +15.6%), Conservative 886 (33.4%, -6.4%), Labour 92 (3.5%, -2.4%). [Greens and UKIP did not stand...

Three key things to learn from the Green Party leadership election of 2021

The Green Party of England and Wales' leadership election of 2021, which yesterday concluded with the election of Carla Denyer and Adrian Ramsay as the new co-leaders of the Green Party, was the most interesting and competitive such contest since the Green Party introduced the leader and deputy leader model in 2008 to replace Principal Speakers. What key conclusions can be drawn from this leadership election, you ask? Here are my top three: 1. Moderation generally wins. As with the 2020 Green Party leader and deputy leader elections, the divisive topic of "gender politics" came to the fore. Neither candidate who took a hardline stance on the issue won the election, whereas Adrian & Carla, who did not mention the issue as much, did. Furthermore, in the second round they achieved nearly treble as many transfers (from Shahrar Ali, Tina Rothery & Martin Hemingway, and Ashley Gunstock, who were eliminated in round 1) as Amelia Womack & Tamsin Omond did. 2. The Prog...

My analysis of British local by-elections from 28 September and 30 September 2021

Readers, the results of British local by-elections in the week commencing 27 September 2021 were as follows: (28/09/2021): Broadland DC, Brundall (double by-election): Green 594/530 (36.5%, +16.9%), Conservative 480/453 (30.3%, -11.3%), Liberal Democrats 425/303 (23.6%, +7.1%), Labour 161/137 (9.7%, -12.7%). Two Green gains from Conservative. Broadland DC, Old Catton & Sprowston: Conservative 721 (50.0%, +2.5%), Labour 332 (23.0%, +4.6%), Liberal Democrats 278 (19.3%, +1.8%), Green 110 (7.6%, -8.9%). (30/09/2021): East Hampshire, Horndean Downs: Green 320 (49.2%, +33.3%), Conservative 291 (44.7%, -8.0%), Independent (Alexander) 40 (6.1%, -12.6%). Green gain from Conservative. East Staffordshire DC, Tutbury & Outwoods: Conservative 549 (44.3%, -13.4%), Independent (Anderson) 464 (37.5%), Labour 186 (15.0%, -27.2%), Green 39 (3.2%). Eden DC, Penrith West: Liberal Democrats 173 (43.5%, +1.4%), Conservative 87 (21.9%, -1.8%), Independent (Thomson) 51 (12.8%), Labour 40 (10.1%, -9.4...