Why Dominic Cummings' revelations are not affecting opinion polls much

The recent revelations of Boris Johnson's former chief adviser, Dominic Cummings, about management of the pandemic inter alia, made headlines across the British media for days. By all rights, especially with two crucial parliamentary by-elections going on in Batley & Spen and Chesham & Amersham (with a Delyn by-election likely as well), this should be causing a serious leakage of Conservative voters to other parties and/or the possibility for greater abstention amongst Conservative voters. Is it?

Let us look at polls that were taken shortly after Super Thursday:

  • YouGov (11-12 May): Conservative 45%, Labour 30%, Liberal Democrats 7%, SNP 5%, Green 8%, Reform UK 2%, Plaid Cymru 1%, Others 2%.
  • Redfield & Wilton Strategies (10 May): Conservative 45%, Labour 34%, Liberal Democrats 8%, SNP 4%, Green 5%, Reform UK 2%, Plaid Cymru 1%, Others 1%.
  • Opininum (13-14 May): Conservative 44%, Labour 31%, Liberal Democrats 8%, SNP 5%, Green 7%, Reform UK 3%, Plaid Cymru 1%, Others 2%.
And similar polls taken at the end of last month:

  • YouGov (27-28 May) Conservative 43%, Labour 29%, Liberal Democrats 8%, SNP 5%, Green 8%, Reform UK 3%, Plaid Cymru 1%., Others 2%.
  • Redfield & Wilton Strategies (31 May): Conservative 45%, Labour 34%, Liberal Democrats 8%, SNP 4%, Green 5%, Reform UK 3%, Plaid Cymru 1%, Others 1%.
  • Opinium (27-28 May): Conservative 42%, Labour 36%, Liberal Democrats 6%, SNP 5%, Green 5%, Reform UK 1%, Plaid Cymru 1%, Others 3%.
(NB: Due to rounding, polls do not necessarily add to 100%).

Only the Opinium poll shows any significant difference, mainly due to increased signs of tactical voting. The other polls show that the revelations of Mr Cummings about Boris Johnson, Matt Hancock et al., have had no significant effect. But why?

1. Dominic Cummings has lost any real credibility. Last year he was infamously spotted breaching coronavirus regulations to travel to Barnard Castle for an eyesight test, and since losing his position as chief adviser to Boris Johnson it has been downhill for him from then on. The political divisions that currently exist in British society mean that current Conservative supporters are not, generally speaking, swayed by Mr Cummings' coverage in the media, and due to the circumstances that created the current "coalition" of Conservative voters, impact would be limited anyway barring a major split (see also Fidesz in Hungary) or a "United Progressive Alliance" against the Conservatives (very unlikely to happen, especially with previous alliances of this type having failed).

2. The increasing realignment and polarisation of British politics limits the impact of one-off events/disasters for a particular political party. Even a repeat of 1992's "Black Wednesday"-which prompted the eventual downfall of the Conservatives culminating in Tony Blair's landslide victory for Labour in 1997-would not do as much damage to the Conservatives as the actual Black Wednesday did, especially with Conservative support being even more skewed towards the elderly and outright owner-occupiers than in the 1990s. Also, with Europe no longer an issue amongst the Conservatives with Britain having left the EU, divisions would most likely be primarily around personalities and as has been seen before in British politics, it would not last long.

3. Too little time has elapsed between those polls. It takes months, and often a year or two, for trends caused by particular key events to become apparent in politics; three weeks is not nearly enough.




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