Chesham & Amersham by-election: A case of Home Counties realignment?

 Readers, in case you are not already aware, the result of the Chesham & Amersham by-election was as follows:

Carolyne Culver, Green Party, 1,480 (3.9%, -1.6%)

Brendan Donnelly, Rejoin EU, 101 (0.3%)

Peter Fleet, Conservative, 13,489 (35.5%, -19.9%)

Sarah Green, Liberal Democrats, 21,517 (56.4%, +30.4%)

Carla Gregory, Breakthrough Party, 197 (0.5%)

Adrian Oliver, Freedom Alliance, 134 (0.4%)

Natasha Pantelic, Labour, 622 (1.6%, -11.3%)

Alex Wilson, Reform UK, 414 (1.1%)

Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative.

The issues of HS2, which would cut right through the constituency if and when constructed, and the proposed Planning Bill (which would amongst other things allow developers to override the wishes of councils with respect to development in designated "growth zones"), were above all else responsible for the Liberal Democrats' gain of Chesham & Amersham on a 25.2% swing, and in a seat which since its creation in 1974 had never seen the Conservative vote share go below 50% at any time, even in 1997. And this comes at a time when the Conservatives are still clearly leading in all opinion polls, averaging 42%, in stark contrast to a 1993 by-election in a similar seat in Berkshire, Newbury (a seat in which, like Chesham & Amersham, only the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are competitive, and where Labour was easily squeezed to a deposit-losing level) when the Conservatives were in freefall and when Labour had 20-point leads on a regular basis (the Newbury by-election took place a few months after Black Wednesday and the UK's withdrawal from the European exchange rate mechanism, or ERM), and also in a constituency where the Liberal Democrats managed to win only one seat at local council level in the new Buckinghamshire unitary authority's inaugural election of May 2021, compared to 13 in nearby Aylesbury (which HS2 would also pass through) in the same election. 

Relative Conservative complacency was also to blame for their loss of this seat in the by-election, even though they selected a local candidate, Peter Fleet, who had considerable experience as a company chairman, although the Liberal Democrats' Sarah Green also lived in the constituency. Calls from some Conservatives to make the Chiltern Hills, currently an Area of Outstanding National Beauty (AONB), a National Park did not help their cause, especially when combined with news of the Planning Bill which would have resulted in unnecessary developments in parts of the constituency not covered by the proposed National Park area. The media thus believed that this by-election would be plain sailing for the Conservatives, meaning that most of the by-election coverage at the count and declaration came from a local radio station, Wycombe Sound; the Batley & Spen by-election, which takes place in 13 days' time, has arguably received more media coverage already.

Despite an excellent campaign based on opposition to HS2 and receiving endorsement by the Stop HS2 campaign, the Greens felt the squeeze by the Liberal Democrats, losing their deposit in a seat they had saved their deposit in in 2019, although Carolyne Culver nevertheless managed more than double the Labour vote. In fact this by-election has just delivered the worst ever result for Labour in a by-election, lower in both vote share and vote total than the Winchester by-election of 1997 (where they polled 944 votes and 1.7%, also due to a heavy Liberal Democrat tactical squeeze), although fourth place for Labour was not surprising in the context of this by-election. It is also not surprising that none of the other 4 candidates made any significant impact, and the Breakthrough Party was lucky to avoid finishing last in its political debut. The announced delay to the 21st June easing of lockdown by 4 weeks (to 19th July) proved to be of no help to the anti-lockdown Freedom Alliance, nor Reform UK. As for Rejoin EU, it might as well have not stood at all given that almost all ardent Remainers who want Britain to rejoin the EU in the near future are Liberal Democrat supporters already.

At the 2019 general election, Chesham & Amersham saw a strong swing from the Conservatives to the Liberal Democrats, like so many seats in the Home Counties (9.3%), and an even stronger swing of 25.2%, more than a year after Britain left the European Union, is clear evidence of a political realignment which whilst helping the Conservatives in the post-industrial north outside major cities, is seeing their former strongholds in the Home Counties being slowly but surely won by the Liberal Democrats and. in some cases, Labour and the Greens. This is not only due to a shift in the Liberal Democrats' core base but also due to well-educated commuters no longer willing to support the Conservatives as they did in generations past, even though a continuing trend in working from home means that there will be progressively fewer commuters to London. Furthermore many traditionally Conservative commuters can no longer afford to live in the majority of the area covered by the Home Counties anymore, let alone London, simply due to house prices exceeding average salaries by a factor of 10 or more. Even with only a 5% deposit needed, a good house in either Chesham or Amersham themselves would on average require a couple to have a combined income exceeding £100,000 per year to obtain a mortgage, incomes well beyond the reach of most couples wanting to settle and start families.