My analysis of local by-elections occurring in June 2021

By-elections are now regularly happening in England again, at long last. The results of the first batch of local by-elections in the United Kingdom that occurred after Super Thursday 2021 were as follows:

(10/6/21):

Waltham Forest LBC, Grove Green: Labour 1301 (58.4%, +1.4%), Liberal Democrats 541 (24.3%, +3.3%), Green 205 (9.2%, -3.0%), Conservative 142 (6.4%, +0.2%), TUSC 40 (1.8%, -1.8%). 

Waltham Forest LBC, Lea Bridge: Labour 1176 (50.0%, -9.1%), Independent (Weiss) 441 (18.8%), Conservative 436 (18.6%, +10.4%), Green 181 (7.7%, -10.4%), Liberal Democrats 116 (4.9%, -1.2%). [TUSC and Duma Polska did not stand]

(17/6/21):

Aberdeenshire UA, East Garioch (1st preferences): Conservative 1240 (45.5%, +14.0%), SNP 963 (35.3%, +8.0%), Liberal Democrats 281 (10.3%, -8.2%), Green 130 (4.8%, -14.0%), Labour 111 (4.1%, +0.1%). Conservative gain from Liberal Democrats at stage 3.

Kent CC, Elham Valley (deferred election): Conservative 1809 (50.1%, -4.2%), Green 1335 (37.0%, +24.6%), Labour 247 (6.8%, -3.4%), Independent (Egerton) 221 (6.1%).

Mid Devon DC, Upper Culm: Conservative 361 (44.5%, +6.0%), Liberal Democrats 346 (42.6%, -3.7%), Green 74 (9.1%), Labour 31 (3.8%, -11.4%). 

Norfolk CC, Sewell (deferred election): Labour 1132 (45.3%, -14.2%), Green 1005 (40.2%, +29.0%), Conservative 320 (12.8%, -4.6%), Liberal Democrats 40 (1.6%, -5.8%)

Norwich BC, Sewell (deferred election): Green 1154 (46.1%, +17.0%), Labour 995 (39.7%, -12.0%), Conservative 316 (12.6%, +0.9%), Liberal Democrats 39 (1.6%, -5.9%). Green gain from Labour.

Somerset West & Taunton DC, Old Cleeve & District: Liberal Democrats 500 (44.9%, +0.2%), Conservative 494 (44.3%, +13.5%), Richard Lillis 120 (10.8%, -13.7%).

Tandridge DC, Felbridge (deferred election): Independent (Moore) 264 (45.4%), Independent (Taylor) 159 (27.4%), Conservative 128 (22.0%, -43.0%), Labour 18 (3.1%), Liberal Democrats 12 (2.1%). [Greens did not stand, neither did a previous Independent].

(24/6/21):

Chichester DC, Chichester East: Liberal Democrats 430 (43.0%, +25.4%), Conservative 310 (31.0%, +6.6%), Labour 261 (26.1%, -3.9%). Liberal Democrats gain from Labour. [Greens and UKIP did not stand]

Gwynedd UA, Harlech: Plaid Cymru 161 (34.4%, -4.4%), Louise Birks 154 (32.9%), Independent (Hughes) 153 (32.7%). Plaid Cymru gain from Independent. [Conservative, Labour, and UKIP did not stand].

North Lanarkshire UA, Murdostoun (1st preferences): Independent (McKendrick) 1504 (41.3%), SNP 884 (24.3%, -3.7%), Labour 617 (16.9%, -6.8%), Independent (Arthur) 293 (8.0%, +5.6%), Conservative 264 (7.2%, -5.7%), Green 61 (1.7%), Independence for Scotland 14 (0.4%), Reform UK 7 (0.2%). Independent gain from another Independent. [UKIP and other Independents did not stand]

Rugby BC, Wolvey & Shilton: Conservative 370 (76.6%, +1.6%), Labour 60 (12.4%, -12.6%), Liberal Democrats 29 (6.0%), Green 24 (5.0%). All changes are since 2018.

Somerset West & Taunton DC, North Curry & Ruishton: Liberal Democrats 798 (49.6%, -23.6%), Conservative 678 (42.1%, +15.3%), Green 133 (8.3%).

Swindon UA, Priory Vale: Conservative 1139 (60.6%, +6.4%), Labour 508 (27.0%, -5.8%), Liberal Democrats 102 (5.4%), Green 83 (4.4%, -3.4%), Independent (Mari) 47 (2.5%, -2.6%). 

At the time of these by-elections, the Liberal Democrats had lost overall control of Somerset West & Taunton through resignations and defections, and the Conservatives were determined to win both by-elections in the hope of taking control themselves with the support of Independents, even though this would have been unlikely in practice in the event that they won both by-elections. The Liberal Democrats held both despite the considerable swings against them in both cases; this was countered by their failure to capture a highly marginal vacant seat in Upper Culm in rural Devon; given how close the vote was any arguments that either Labour or the Greens "split the Liberal Democrat vote" are without merit in this case, especially given the tactical squeeze on Labour that was, and to some extent still is, par for the course in most of South West England, and the fact the successful Liberal Democrat councillor in Upper Culm in 2019 had a strong personal vote. 

Among this month's set of by-election results, the Green Party's win of Sewell ward in Norwich for the very first time, and a close run in the Sewell division which covers the same area (they did win it in 2009 but lost it in 2013, and had finished third there in 2017) was the most spectacular. In the run-up to the election, former Green Party Leader Natalie Bennett (Baroness Bennett of Manor Castle) and Green Party Deputy Leader Amelia Womack visited Sewell to help the Greens secure that historic win from Labour. Although Labour's public sector vote is solidifying in the cities, even small cities, it is by no means invulnerable. They were pushed into third place in Chichester East even though their vote share only slightly decreased; the lack of a Green candidate proved decisive to a Liberal Democrat victory there against all expectations (Labour's win in Chichester East in 2019 marked the first Labour gain in that cathedral city since the inaugural Chichester District Council election of 1973).

Meanwhile, the Conservatives' loss of solidly Conservative Felbridge, a village on the edge of southern Surrey, as well as Plaid Cymru only narrowly holding Harlech, a tiny seaside town in Meirionydd, showed how well Independents can surge when political parties fail to reach out to rural areas properly and/or, specifically in the former case, pursue policies that would be particularly detrimental to such areas. 



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