Super Thursday 2021, part 1: The story behind the Hartlepool by-election result

In case you do not already know, the result of the Hartlepool parliamentary by-election was as follows:

David Bettney, SDP, 108 (0.4%)

Nick the Flying Brick, OMRLP, 104 (0.3%)

Hilton Dawson, North East Party, 163 (0.5%)

Gemma Evans, Women's Equality Party, 140 (0.4%)

Rachel Featherstone, Green Party, 358 (1.2%)

Adam Gaines, Independent, 126 (0.4%)

Andrew Hagon, Liberal Democrats, 349 (1.2%, -2.9%)

Steve Jack, Freedom Alliance, 72 (0.2%)

Chris Killick, 248 (0.8%)

Sam Lee, Independent, 2,904 (9.7%)

Claire Martin, Heritage Party, 468 (1.6%)

Jill Mortimer, Conservative, 15,529 (51.3%, +23.0%)

John Prescott, Reform UK, 368 (1.2%)

W. Ralph Ward-Jackson, Independent, 157 (0.5%)

Thelma Walker, Independent*, 250 (0.8%)

Paul Williams, Labour, 8,589 (28.7%, -9.0%)

Conservative GAIN from Labour.

*Thelma Walker was standing for the Northern Independence Party, which was not registered at the time nominations closed for the by-election.

16% swing Labour to Conservative.

Amidst the fact that more than 130,000 people have died of COVID-19, where many of those deaths could have been prevented with a better COVID strategy, the sleaze scandals surrounding Boris Johnson, corruption surrounding government contracts especially those related to COVID-19 prevention and vaccination, and the spat between Mr Johnson and Dominic Cummings, and the economic effects of Brexit beginning to bite, the Conservatives still gained Hartlepool on a 16% swing, making it the first time they had won Hartlepool (or its direct predecessor, the Hartlepools) since 1959. This is also the largest increase for a Conservative candidate in a by-election where the Conservatives have been in government in the history of universal suffrage in the United Kingdom.

This by-election was Labour's to lose from the very beginning, not only because they had been spared defeat in 2019 by the Brexit Party's intervention. They selected former Stockton South MP Paul Williams from a "shortlist of one" (not a shortlist at all in reality) who was not only an ardent Remainer standing for a seat where Leave won by a margin of 70% to 30%, but also had attracted controversy for past tweets about "Tory MILFs" and support for Saudi Arabia. It was also clear that Labour were still failing to properly connect with aspirational working-class voters who they had alienated under Jeremy Corbyn's tenure. 

The Conservatives, meanwhile, benefitted from a "vaccine bounce" and the prospects of lockdown totally ending by the end of next month, with many restrictions having already been lifted, in addition to Sir Keir Starmer's failure to act as a proper opposition leader especially during the main lockdown period. Although Jill Mortimer suffered negative publicity for having lived in the Cayman Islands (a notorious tax haven) for years before the campaign started and having no real connections to Hartlepool, this was overshadowed by all the negatives going for Labour.

Apart from Labour and the Conservatives Sam Lee, an independent journalist born and raised in Hartlepool, was the only other candidate to save her deposit. Hartlepool has a long tradition of a politically independent streak, particularly at local government level; an independent saved his deposit in 2015, the same year that UKIP came a close second to Labour in Hartlepool. Mrs Lee also overshadowed the other local Independent, Adam Gaines, a publican who could never achieve the same momentum. Nor could W. Ralph Ward-Jackson, a great-great nephew of the founder of West Hartlepool, partly because he had an address in Kensington at the time of the by-election meaning despite his historical links to the town he could have been seen as out of touch, given how wealthy Kensington is especially in comparison to Hartlepool.

Despite high ramping on Twitter for the Northern Independence Party almost from the start of the by-election being called, Thelma Walker, the former Labour MP for Colne Valley who stood with the support of the Northern Independence Party (whose registered office is actually as far down south as Brighton!), failed to make any noticeable impact, being lucky to avoid falling behind Chris Killick, an independent who was exposed as a registered sex offender during the campaign and had only moved to Hartlepool just before the by-election campaign started. The exposure of Mr Killick's past conviction across the British media did nothing to help the cause of the Women's Equality Party's Gemma Evans, however, who polled just over half the votes he did. Furthermore, another former Labour MP, Hilton Dawson (who represented Lancaster & Wyre from 1997 to 2005) fared even worse, despite the North East Party having local strength only a few miles up the road from Hartlepool and the North East of England feeling particularly hard done by the two main parties. Again this was due to Mr Dawson having no proper links to Hartlepool, unlike Mrs Lee and Mr Gaines, as well as the amount of tactical voting going on.

The miserable result of the Reform UK party was not unexpected due to so much of their former Brexit Party supporters voting Conservative, due to their hostility to Labour especially given the selection farce that took place due to their decision to move the writ for this by-election for yesterday to coincide with local elections, even though the outgoing Labour MP, Mike Hill, only resigned on 16 March. They only narrowly finished ahead of the Greens, who themselves narrowly finished ahead of the Liberal Democrats; both of those parties faced a tactical squeeze by Labour. 

The wooden spoon went to Steve Jack of the Freedom Alliance party, who was the only candidate to finish behind the Monster Raving Loony's Nick "The Flying Brick" Delves and the only candidate in this by-election to poll fewer than 100 votes. This happened for good reason, though. Britain is already well on its way out of lockdown and no further curfews or lockdowns are planned for the foreseeable future, meaning that its sole significant reason for existing has disappeared.

The high coverage the by-election received did not prevent a significant drop in turnout, with only 42.7% of Hartlepool's electorate voting, although Hartlepool usually delivers poor turnouts at general election time so this cannot be unexpected by any means. A lot of Labour voters stayed at home and felt that Dr Williams, despite emphasising his credentials as a frontline NHS doctor during the coronavirus pandemic, did not represent them or their plight.

Part 2 of my Super Thursday 2021 series will concentrate on the Scottish Parliament and Senedd elections, due to some councils not finishing counting and result verification until Sunday, which includes North Hertfordshire District Council, where I was the Green Party candidate in Letchworth South West (Hertfordshire County Council, where I stood as the Green Party candidate in Letchworth South, will declare its results tomorrow evening.)