My predictions for the Senedd election of 2021-seat by seat (including regional seats)

 We are now only three days away from "Super Thursday" when district council elections, county council elections, the Mayor of London and London Assembly elections, the Scottish Parliament election, and the Senedd (fka Welsh Assembly) election will all take place (not to mention the Police & Crime Commissioner elections and the Hartlepool by-election), although due to coronavirus restrictions the final results will not be known across Britain until Monday morning.

Having earlier made predictions for district and county councils (those likely to change hands), here are my predictions for the 60 Senedd seats (the 40 constituencies plus the 20 list seats; note that the 40 constituencies are identical to the Westminster constituencies in Wales):

Aberavon: One of the safest Labour seats in Wales, and the United Kingdom. The former mayor of Neath Port Talbot, Scott Jones, is standing as an Independent (having once been a Labour councillor) but this factor will not be enough to threaten the large Labour majority, even with Plaid Cymru as the main challengers. Labour hold.

Aberconwy: Last time (in 2016) UKIP did not stand here and this definitely saved Janet Finch-Saunders' Senedd career. This time, Reform UK is standing as is the anti-lockdown Freedom Alliance, but the Green Party are not. Plaid Cymru only missed this seat by 754 votes in 2016 and there will be enough tactical voters to ensure Plaid regains the seat they won in 2007 but lost to Mrs Finch-Saunders in 2011. Plaid Cymru gain from Conservative.

Alyn & Deeside: In the 2019 general election, the equivalent Westminster seat was only narrowly held by Labour with a majority of 213 and furthermore it was the only seat in the old county of Clwyd that Labour held. This time, especially since turnout is lower at Senedd elections and with neither the Brexit issue nor the Corbyn issue being salient, Labour should hold easily. Labour hold.

Arfon: One of the safest seats for Plaid Cymru at Senedd level and part of its core, heavily Welsh-speaking territory. This will be plain sailing for Plaid, with the Conservative and Liberal Democrat votes already having been squeezed tactically by Labour. Plaid Cymru hold.

Blaenau Gwent: In 2016, this was narrowly missed by Plaid Cymru, who won over a lot of the old People's Voice vote. What will indirectly help Labour is UKIP not standing again, since the UKIP vote in Wales is not friendly towards Plaid's aims. Furthermore, Plaid Cymru collapsed in the equivalent Westminster seat and this Senedd seat is likely to follow suit. Labour hold.

Brecon & Radnorshire: Kirsty Williams, who in 2016 became the sole remaining Liberal Democrat MS, is standing down at this Senedd election leaving this seat wide open. Tactical voting, especially in light of the recent sleaze scandals involving the Conservatives, should allow the new Liberal Democrat, William Powell, to narrowly hold the seat, although it is by no means guaranteed due to the loss of the incumbency factor for the Lib Dems. Liberal Democrat hold.

Bridgend: Former First Minister Carwyn Jones is standing down and the equivalent Westminster seat was gained by the Conservatives in 2019. On paper this should be a good Conservative prospect at Senedd level, but the lower turnout levels combined with the fact Mark Drakeford has been perceived as handling the coronavirus crisis reasonably well in Wales tip the odds in Labour's favour. Labour hold.

Caerphilly: Although Plaid Cymru came reasonably close to gaining this seat from Labour in 2016, this was more due to UKIP hitting both the Labour and Conservative votes than anything else (the Plaid Cymru vote actually dropped by 0.2% compared to 2011). Neither the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party nor Reform UK will be able to capture all of the ex-UKIP vote, and this time the Plaid candidate is not well-known councillor Lindsay Whittle. Labour will only recover slightly but it will be enough to thwart a Plaid gain. Labour hold.

Cardiff Central: The only Labour-Lib Dem marginal at Senedd level, but one where the Liberal Democrats are likely to fall back since despite his woes Sir Keir Starmer is at least warming over to Lib Dem voters more than Jeremy Corbyn ever did, and the Lib Dems have almost run out of tactical votes in this seat. The most interesting things about this Senedd seat will be the turnout, with a lot of students not on campus at present, and how well the Greens will poll. Labour hold.

Cardiff North: The equivalent Westminster seat was the only one in Wales to swing to Labour in 2019, important because it is also the wealthiest seat in Wales. With its large proportion of public sector workers this seat is likely to see a significant drop in the Conservative vote, making a Labour hold all the more easier. Labour hold.

Cardiff South & Penarth: This Senedd seat has the most candidates this year-12 in all. However, the Labour vote in this seat is solid and reliable and they will have no problems holding this seat, especially with both the Conservative and Plaid Cymru vote split by Reform UK/AWAP and Propel. Labour hold.

Cardiff West: The seat of current First Minister Mark Drakeford, and where Propel's leader, Neil McEvoy, is standing having nearly gained the seat for Plaid Cymru in 2016. This time, however, all Mr McEvoy will do is make Mr Drakeford's hold easier, and Mr McEvoy, a controversial character by any standards, will be lucky to finish third. Labour hold.

Carmarthen East & Dinefwr: The seat of Plaid Cymru leader Adam Price, who was the MP for the equivalent Westminster seat from 2001 to 2010. In 2016 he obtained his largest ever majority over Labour and especially in light of his good performance at the Welsh leaders' debate last week, he will be re-elected easily. Plaid Cymru hold.

Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire: A seat to watch at this Senedd election. Plaid Cymru performed particularly badly in this seat in 2016 despite fielding the now disgraced Simon Thomas, who was a list MS and had been the Plaid Cymru in nearby Ceredigion from 2000 to 2005; the Conservative incumbent, Angela Jones, is not standing again, and neither is the pro-Withybush hospital independent, Chris Overton. In four of the five Senedd elections that have taken place since what was the Welsh Assembly was founded in 1999, Plaid Cymru have come within 2000 votes of winning this seat. Labour is tactically best placed to win this seat but their support here is limited. The collapse of UKIP should be decisive in ensuring a narrow Conservative hold on balance, and second place could go to either Plaid or Labour. Conservative hold.

Ceredigion: Elin Jones is standing again for Plaid Cymru and is one of only five MSs that were first elected in their constituency in 1999 who are standing again. It is clear that the Liberal Democrats have ran out of tactical votes to squeeze, and furthermore Elizabeth Jones is not standing for them again. Lib Dem resources are likely to be diverted towards Powys meaning that Plaid will hold this seat easily with a majority of 5000 or more, and the Greens will benefit from a likely collapse in the Lib Dem vote in this particularly unique constituency. Plaid Cymru hold.

Clwyd South: The Conservatives won the equivalent Westminster seat in 2019 with the same Simon Baynes who stood in this Senedd seat in 2016. Labour have held this seat since 1999 but never with a particularly high vote, and they did not do that well in 2016. The Liberal Democrats did poll relatively well with now ex-MS Aled Roberts, and they will find themselves heavily squeezed by Labour here, enough to ensure a Labour hold although a swing to the Conservatives can be expected. Labour hold.

Clwyd West: A safe Conservative seat where Plaid Cymru finished second in 2016; however they are not in a position to capture it as Clwyd West does not have enough latent Plaid Cymru support and also has a large proportion of retirees, many of whom were not born in Wales. These demographics are certainly unfavourable to Labour even with Mark Drakeford as First Minister and Sir Keir Starmer as Labour leader. An easy Conservative hold with Reform UK not able to make a significant impact either. Conservative hold. 

Cynon Valley: A typical safe Labour seat of the Glamorgan valleys with Plaid Cymru as the main challenger, but unlike Rhondda Plaid are not in a position to win this seat. The only time they came even close was in their annus mirabilis of 1999. This year Propel's candidature will hinder Plaid even though they are doing comparatively well across Wales and UKIP's collapse will indirectly bolster the solid Labour majority. Labour hold.

Delyn: Another seat whose Westminster equivalent was gained by the Conservatives in 2019 but whose Senedd equivalent will be held by Labour this year. The Conservatives are fielding list MS Mark Isherwood but he only has an outside chance for reasons I have given in aforementioned Senedd constituencies which are in practice only competitive between the Conservatives and Labour. Labour's majority will be reduced somewhat but Hannath Blythyn will retain the seat without going to recount stage. Labour hold.

Dwyfor Meirionydd: A safe Plaid Cymru seat where the "unionist" opposition is also heavily divided. (Lord) Dafydd Elis-Thomas is retiring but this will make no significant difference to Plaid, nor will the re-appearance of localist party Llais Gwynedd (whose 2011 candidate, Louise Hughes, is now standing for Reform UK) or the debut of Propel whose base is primarily urban anyway. Plaid Cymru hold.

Gower: The Conservatives came reasonably close to gaining it from Labour in 2016, obtaining a 6% swing in their favour and reducing the Labour majority to just 1,829. However, the Conservatives will find themselves knocked back this time, especially in the parts that are in reality suburbs of the city of Swansea, as they were in the equivalent Westminster seat in 2019. Do not expect a particularly large Labour majority though. Labour hold.

Islwyn: A safe Labour seat which Plaid Cymru held briefly from 1999 to 2003. However, they are not going to do quite as well as they did in 1999, although there is the complicating factor of independent candidate Kevin Etheridge, who in 2007 polled 28.3% tipping the seat back into marginal territory. He is not going to poll nearly as well this year, however, and as with Blaenau Gwent UKIP's collapse will primarily be to the benefit of Labour and the Conservatives than anything else. Labour hold.

Llanelli: One of the most competitive seats at Senedd level, primarily due to Plaid Cymru's Helen Mary Jones. She held the seat from 1999 to 2003 and again from 2007 to 2011, although in 2016 her attempt to regain it saw a surprising swing against her, albeit only 0.5%. Where the UKIP vote and the ex-Putting Llanelli First vote will go will decide the outcome of this seat; Sian Caiach is in fact standing again, this time for Gwlad, but will do much worse than in 2016. It will be a tight contest, especially with some of the controversies Ms Jones has been mired in recently, but on the back of Plaid's recent performances I predict Ms Jones will regain her seat, but this will likely go to recount stage. Plaid Cymru gain from Labour.

Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney: A safe Labour seat that has a strong independent streak politically, but this year no clear challenger who could win the seat from Labour has emerged. A clear Labour hold with Plaid Cymru retaking the runner-up spot. Labour hold.

Monmouth: Despite being one of only three seats in Wales that is safe for the Conservatives at both Senedd and Westminster level and will continue to remain so (the others being Clwyd West and Montgomeryshire), this year's contest has managed to attract the attention of Private Eye, and for good reason: how the Conservative vote will be split. Nick Ramsay, the incumbent Conservative, was deselected last year and consequently as standing as an independent. There is also Mark Reckless, who was Conservative, and briefly UKIP, MP for Rochester & Strood from 2010 to 2015, was a UKIP MS, and is now standing for AWAP. The official Conservative candidate is Peter Fox, leader of Monmouthshire council, and despite the fact that both the Freedom Alliance and Reform UK will nip at the Conservative vote also he should have no problems holding the seat, although a shock Labour gain cannot be ruled out. Conservative hold.

Montgomeryshire: Once a Conservative-Lib Dem marginal that will now become a safe Conservative seat at Senedd level, just as it is now at Westminster level, with the Lib Dems slipping back further in what was once a stronghold of theirs in Wales, especially without Jane Dodds (briefly MP for Brecon & Radnorshire) standing for them again. It will be plain sailing for Russell George, and Reform UK's anti-lockdown stance will win over a fair few "classical liberal" votes even with the end of lockdown in sight. Conservative hold.

Neath: A reliable Labour seat where Plaid Cymru have always been the only real challengers, but Plaid only came reasonably close in 2007. They do not stand a realistic chance of capturing it from Labour this year, either, especially with Propel's candidature. Labour hold.

Newport East: A safe urban Labour seat where the Liberal Democrats made a brief challenge under the late Ed Townsend. Their star has long since faded from Newport, however, and no credible challenger to Labour has taken their place. Labour hold.

Newport West: More marginal than its neighbour, but the Conservatives are very unlikely to win it this year, even with UKIP's vote collapsing. There will likely be a pro-Conservative swing but only a small one; Labour should have no problems holding it. Labour hold.

Ogmore: Another safe Labour seat in Glamorgan where Plaid Cymru are the challengers; however, Plaid Cymru have never come close to winning it. With the opposition to Labour being very divided as per usual, Labour will have an easy hold. Labour hold.

Pontypridd: In the past, Pontypridd, a reliable Labour seat, has seen good challenges from both Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats. However, the Liberal Democrat candidate in the last four Senedd elections, Mike Powell, is not standing even as an Independent (he did so in the equivalent Westminster seat in 2019, polling just 1792 votes and losing his deposit). Plaid Cymru will undoubtedly absorb some of this vote but not enough to be in with a realistic chance of gaining this seat. Labour hold.

Preseli Pembrokeshire: In both 2011 and 2016, Labour found out that the potential for them to squeeze Plaid Cymru tactically is rather limited, and Labour will once again get nowhere against the Conservatives in this seat. Also, as with Clwyd West, it is demographically unfavourable to Labour and has enough Welsh speakers to give Plaid Cymru a reasonably solid base which is nevertheless not enough for them to ever be able to win this seat in any normal circumstances. Conservative hold.

Rhondda: In 2016, this was the only Senedd constituency to change hands, with a spectacular gain by Plaid Cymru's Leanne Wood from Labour's Leighton Andrews, who is not standing again. Born and raised in Rhondda Cynon Taf, Ms Wood has a very strong personal vote and she will be easily re-elected here, the fact she is no longer leader of Plaid notwithstanding. Plaid Cymru hold.

Swansea East: Like Newport East, this is a safe and urban Labour seat and there is no obvious challenger to Labour, who have a secure majority, this year. Labour hold.

Swansea West: More marginal than its neighbour but as with Swansea East Labour do not face a clear challenger and the opposition is quite substantially divided in this relatively affluent Labour seat. Labour will hold easily here. Labour hold.

Torfaen: Not the safest Labour seat by any standards but one where the opposition is always very divided at Senedd election time; this year will be no exception. Lynne Neagle, one of five constituency MSs first elected in 1999 who is standing again, will sail through. Labour hold.

Vale of Clwyd: One of the Conservatives' best chances at this Senedd election. The Labour MS, Ann Jones, is not standing again and the Conservatives only missed this seat by 768 votes in 2016. Here the collapse of UKIP should favour the Conservatives, and the ageing population will provide the path to a narrow Conservative win, particularly with the "vaccine bounce" effect. Conservative gain from Labour.

Vale of Glamorgan: Another good prospect for the Conservatives but for different reasons to the Vale of Clwyd. The middle-class vote here is primarily Conservative and it is clear that Sir Keir has not done much to impress working-class voters, inside and outside the "Red Wall"; arguably UKIP scuppered a Conservative gain in 2016. This seat has a high turnout at Senedd level and amidst the coronavirus crisis this will favour the Conservatives, who only have a Labour majority of 777 to overcome. Conservative gain from Labour.

Wrexham: Here, the Conservatives have decent chances but are likely to miss for two reasons: firstly, Labour can squeeze Plaid Cymru for tactical anti-Conservative votes since the Plaid vote is more malleable than in the Vale of Glamorgan, and secondly, the recent Conservative scandals will harm the Conservatives more here than in coastal, more prosperous, largely owner-occupied seats. The Conservatives are definitely still in the picture regarding this seat but in these circumstances I believe Labour will narrowly hold on. Labour hold.

Ynys Mon: At Senedd level, this is reliable Plaid Cymru territory despite frequent Conservative challenges. This year will prove no exception for its current Plaid MS, Rhun ap Iorwerth, although the Conservatives will recapture the runner-up spot from Labour. Plaid Cymru hold. 

Mid & West Wales: The most competitive region in Wales, and even more so in this Senedd election. Labour is likely to gain an additional list MS even though its vote share is not set to change much here, since it will likely lose Llanelli, and UKIP will definitely lose theirs (in fact Neil Hamilton is standing in South East Wales and for the Newport East constituency). The last list seat here will be a tight contest between the Greens and the Liberal Democrats, with AWAP no longer in contention especially since Richard Suchorzewski's disastrous performance in the leaders' debate and AWAP's lack of any coherent policy aside from abolition of the Senedd. On balance the Greens are best placed to gain it with Powys councillor Emily Durrant, as the Lib Dems holding Brecon & Radnorshire combined with their current poll ratings means they are unlikely to get it. Prediction: Labour 3, Green 1.

North Wales: The weakest region for progressive parties that are not Plaid Cymru. The Conservatives will undoubtedly be bolstered by the collapsing UKIP vote and keep their list seat, and Plaid Cymru will keep theirs. Due to the imbalance between constituency and list seats (there are 9 constituencies in North Wales but only 4 list seats), Labour gained one more seat in 2016 than they were entitled to under d'Hondt, so they are not currently in line to gain a list seat. Reform UK is on balance more likely to gain a list seat with ex-UKIP MS Nathan Gill, especially since it will be best place to win voters who voted for the Brexit Party in Clwyd, and the Liberal Democrats are likely to out-edge AWAP for the last list seat . Prediction: Conservatives 1, Plaid Cymru 1, Reform UK 1, Liberal Democrats 1.

South Wales Central: A tale of two halves, especially for Plaid Cymru, the Lib Dems, and the Greens. Plaid's support is concentrated strongly in Rhondda Cynon Taf but the Lib Dems and the Greens have much better support in Cardiff. With UKIP out of the picture, the Lib Dems are in a good position to recover a list seat. The Women's Equality Party is not there to split the Green vote this year but the Greens will only be able to win a list seat in the unlikely event that they can not only poll better than in 2011 (the first time they polled above 5% in any region) and that the Lib Dems recapture Cardiff Central. Prediction: Conservative 2, Plaid Cymru 1, Liberal Democrats 1.

South Wales East: The best place for AWAP to pick up a seat, not only due to UKIP collapsing left, right and centre but also because this region in Wales is the least pro-devolution. Reform UK is in with a good chance as well for similar reasons, although Plaid Cymru moving back into third place means they will gain a second list seat mainly through Blaenau Gwent & Caerphilly (West Gwent, in other words). Prediction: Plaid Cymru 2, Conservative 1, AWAP 1.

South Wales West: Since Labour hold all 7 constituencies in this region and will likely do so this year, they will not gain any list seats. Through their recovery in Swansea and suburbs in the Gower constituency the Liberal Democrats should be able to recover a list seat despite poor potential in Neath Port Talbot and Bridgend. However, the Conservatives are likely to overtake Plaid Cymru and gain a second list seat instead of them, even though Bridgend is likely to see the only noticeable increase in Conservative support in this region. As with the other regions UKIP will lose their list seat. Prediction: Conservative 2, Plaid Cymru 1, Liberal Democrats 1.

Final predicted totals for the Senedd election of 2021: Labour 27 (-2), Conservative 13 (+2), Plaid Cymru 13 (+1), Liberal Democrats 4 (+3), Green 1 (+1), AWAP 1 (+1), Reform UK 1 (+1), UKIP 0 (-7).