On the Madrid Assembly election of 2021: Centrist takeover attempt backfires

The snap election in the Spanish capital of Madrid, called after a failed attempt by the centrist Ciudidanos (Cs) party and the social democratic Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) to oust the Popular Party (PP) government, resulted in a decisive victory for PP under Isabel Diaz Ayuso.

It was not merely the failed attempt to seize control of the Assembly that helped Mrs Ayuso achieve such a victory, though, which gave PP 65 seats, just four seats short of an outright majority and more than double its 2019 total. The particularly tough COVID-19 related restrictions on Madrid, which included wearing face masks in all public spaces (not just in buildings as required in the UK) and strict curfews, had also exhausted the patience of many of Madrid's residents, especially with COVID-19 on the wane in Europe. 

The Cs, meanwhile, paid the price for what Madrid residents saw as a power grab. They polled just 3.6%, below the election threshold of 4%, and lost all 26 of their seats in the process, suffering a defeat worse than their recent drubbing in Catalonia. Their breaking of their former alliance with PP was seen as an abject betrayal by moderate voters in Madrid, and furthermore their Spanish nationalist credo (as opposed to Spanish federalism and greater autonomy for the regions) has been usurped by the extreme nationalist and neoconservative Vox party, who surprisingly managed to gain one extra seat, giving them 13. Vox had been mired in considerable controversy during this election, as would be expected of such a party, especially its failure to condemn a death threat made against Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias during the campaign, not to mention racist advertisements made against migrants, which is a key reason why it stagnated in this election.

PSOE also suffered badly as a result of the failed attempt. It dropped from first place to third in this Madrid election, losing 13 of its 37 seats. It was narrowly overtaken by the radical Mas Madrid, a splinter group from Podemos with a greater emphasis on green politics than Podemos, which obtained 24 seats, 4 more than in 2019 and equalling PSOE's total. PSOE's wish to ally with the Cs, whose economic policy is clearly neoliberal, angered progressive voters in Madrid, some of whom helped Mr Iglesias' Podemos party gain an extra 3 seats, although Podemos won fewer than half the seats Mas Madrid did, and fewer than half the seats they had in 2015 (Podemos lost 20 seats in 2019, the same number Mas Madrid won, having had 27 in 2015). As a result, Mr Iglesias announced he would step down as leader of Unidos Podemos and retire from Spanish politics, despite being aged only 42 at this time of writing. It is clear his youthful, radical image has worn off and therefore Podemos is in fact rather disunited despite his name, meaning that Mas Madrid's displacement of Podemos is for the long term.

None of the other parties who contested this election came close to winning seats, with the Animalist Party against the Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA) the only other party to poll more than 0.1%, and furthermore their performance represents a loss of 40% of their already low 2019 support. Ironically this happened shortly after Spain gave pets some of the same rights as humans in a ground-breaking move for animal welfare. Arguably, a considerable number of their supporters tactically voted for progressive parties tactically to minimise the influence of Vox, the only Spanish political party not to back the new animal welfare law. The wooden spoon of this Madrilenian election went to the Humanist Party, who polled only 1,019 votes.

Turnout proved to be one of the highest for a regional election in Spain in recent times-71.3%, representing an impressive increase of 7% from 2019 despite the election being a snap election; early elections usually result in a decreased turnout. Even though PP is four seats short of an overall majority, Mrs Ayuso will have no trouble continuing as the president of the community of Madrid (in effect, the mayor of Madrid).