All change in Montenegro? My analysis of the 2020 Montenegrin parliamentary election

 The Montenegrin parliamentary election that took place yesterday produced a sensational change: for the first time since Montenegrin independence, the Democratic Party of Socialists of Montenegro (DPS) failed to win enough seats to assure itself of being the governing party.

The DPS only lost 6 seats, bringing it down to 30, but in a parliament with only 81 seats each seat loss counts for much more than in the House of Commons of the United Kingdom, which has 650 members by comparison. Corruption scandals-a common theme in the politics of  former Warsaw Pact countries-against the DPS, which resulted in nationwide protests last year, were the primary reason why the DPS lost out in this election, along with allegations of electoral fraud to the point where opposition parties boycotted the Montenegrin parliament. Religious discrimination against the Serbian Orthodox Church, in favour of the Montenegrin Orthodox Church, made matters worse for the DPS.

The main beneficiary of the DPS' losses was the conservative populist For the Future of Montenegro alliance (note that unlike in many Central and Eastern European countries, alliances of parties who contest elections in Montenegro are not subject to a higher electoral threshold than single parties) which gained 6 seats, putting it on 27, just 3 behind the DPS. They benefitted from the Serbian Orthodox Church controversy in particular as well as general dissatisfaction with Montenegrin PM Dusko Markovic, and will now be leading the next Montenegrin government for the first time ever. Given its strong pro-Serbian and pro-Russian leanings this will mark a significant change of direction for Montenegro's international outlook.

In a country with a population of only 2/3 of a million people (estimated), and only 541,232 voters (as of 30 August 2020), it is not surprising that only eleven political parties registered for this election, and five of those were lists representing the interests of Albanians, Bosnians, and Croatians respectively. The 3% electoral threshold (Montenegro elects its MPs from a single nationwide constituency) does not apply to lists representing ethnic minorities in Montenegro; instead Albanian and Bosnian lists have a 0.7% threshold whilst the Croatian lists have a 0.35% threshold. The Bosniak Party, the Albanian List, and the Albanian Coalition all met this special threshold, winning 3 seats, 1 seat and 1 seat respectively but neither Croatian list did. Notably, the Croatian Reform Party split from the Croatian Civic Initiative last year; had this split not happened it is very likely that the Croatian Civic Initiative (HGI) would have kept their seat. Despite being an opposition party the pro-European Peace Is Our Nation party actually lost two seats, mainly due to the rise of United Reform Action, which notably includes green politics on its platform. In the midst of COVID-19, people are growing more and more aware of the need to take action on the climate emergency, and Montenegro is no exception. Although the Social Democrats were part of the outgoing government they actually gained an extra seat, whereas the Social Democratic Party that was in opposition lost 2 seats and only just passed the 3% threshold for representation.

Unusually, given how the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted elections, turnout increased by 3.32% to 76.65%, although in Montenegro social distancing restrictions have been rather lax due to Western Europe. Montenegro has however had few COVID-19 cases and its remote location; it was in fact the last country in Europe to have a case of COVID-19. The increased turnout is undoubtedly due to the appetite for change and a good chance of voters making a real difference this year. 

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