On electoral heartlands
In the month since the most recent British general election, there has been a lot of discussion about how badly Labour lost in its northern heartlands and whether it will recover from this, but little about the general election's effects on other political heartlands as such.
Political heartlands in Britain have in fact been shifting from place to place and party to party in the last century. The Labour Party's strongest heartlands used to be in the old mining areas, not the biggest cities except in the poorer districts. The Liberal heartlands were once in the Pennines and "Celtic fringe", particularly where there was a Nonconformist religious tradition. Conservative heartlands are shifting as well-Surrey and Hertfordshire are not as safely Conservative as they used to be, and it is the counties of Lincolnshire (including North/North East Lincolnshire) and Essex that produced the strongest Conservative results in 2019. This will continue into further elections even after Britain departs from the European Union at the end of this month.
Electoral heartlands shift with the passage of time and demographic change, especially as newer political forces arise. It is becoming clearer where the Greens' strongest places are and will continue to be in Britain, for example. The two preceding elections before December 2019 showed which way the wind was trending in middle-class urban seats (strongly towards Labour)-and in ex-industrial seats in the Midlands and North (strongly towards the Conservatives). Electoral heartlands are not set in stone by any means, as the Conservatives found to their cost in 1997, the Liberal Democrats in 2015 and Labour likewise in 2019 (and 2015 in Scotland). The last three sets of local elections in particular are a key indicator of shifting electoral heartlands for all political parties in the UK.
Despite increasing electoral volatility in Britain, electoral "heartlands" for all parties will still exist as long as first past the post exists in Britain.
Political heartlands in Britain have in fact been shifting from place to place and party to party in the last century. The Labour Party's strongest heartlands used to be in the old mining areas, not the biggest cities except in the poorer districts. The Liberal heartlands were once in the Pennines and "Celtic fringe", particularly where there was a Nonconformist religious tradition. Conservative heartlands are shifting as well-Surrey and Hertfordshire are not as safely Conservative as they used to be, and it is the counties of Lincolnshire (including North/North East Lincolnshire) and Essex that produced the strongest Conservative results in 2019. This will continue into further elections even after Britain departs from the European Union at the end of this month.
Electoral heartlands shift with the passage of time and demographic change, especially as newer political forces arise. It is becoming clearer where the Greens' strongest places are and will continue to be in Britain, for example. The two preceding elections before December 2019 showed which way the wind was trending in middle-class urban seats (strongly towards Labour)-and in ex-industrial seats in the Midlands and North (strongly towards the Conservatives). Electoral heartlands are not set in stone by any means, as the Conservatives found to their cost in 1997, the Liberal Democrats in 2015 and Labour likewise in 2019 (and 2015 in Scotland). The last three sets of local elections in particular are a key indicator of shifting electoral heartlands for all political parties in the UK.
Despite increasing electoral volatility in Britain, electoral "heartlands" for all parties will still exist as long as first past the post exists in Britain.
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