My analysis of British local by-elections from 16/1/20 and 23/1/20, and on the Withdrawal Agreement Act
Readers, the results of British local by-elections from 16 January and 23 January 2020, the first of the year and in fact this decade, were as follows:
(16/1/20):
Bristol UA, Brislington East: Labour 865 (39.7%, +0.6%), Conservative 647 (29.7%, -7.0%), Liberal Democrats 486 (22.3%, +11.6%), Green 179 (8.2%, -5.1%).
(23/1/20):
Brent LBC, Alperton: Liberal Democrats 1699 (39.7%, +30.7%), Labour* 1304 (30.5%, -27.7%), Conservative 900 (21.0%, -1.0%), Green 373 (8.7%, -2.1%). Liberal Democrat gain from Labour.
Brent LBC, Barnhill (double election): Labour 1194/1152 (46.5%, -17.5%), Conservative 1082/1018 (41.7%, +16.4%), Green 231/171 (8.0%), Liberal Democrats 118/76 (3.8%,-3.6%).
Brent LBC, Wembley Central: Labour 1945 (54.5%, -13.2%), Conservative 1090 (30.6%, +14.3%), Liberal Democrats 378 (10.6%, +1.5%), Green 154 (4.3%, -2.6%).
Dumfries & Galloway UA, Mid Galloway & Wigtown West (1st preferences): Conservative 2177 (61.8%, +22.3%), SNP 898 (25.5%, +1.9%), Green 225 (6.4%, +4.2%), Labour 220 (6.3%, -0.6%). Conservative hold at stage 1.[No Independents stood]
*The Labour candidate in the Alperton by-election, Chetan Harpale, was suspended from the Labour Party after it was alleged he had posted anti-Muslim Tweets. His name still remained on ballot papers as nominations had closed when Labour suspended him.
The first local by-election was in a key suburban marginal where a Labour loss would have led to Labour only holding Bristol council on the Mayor's casting vote-and Bristol council has all-out elections in May (predictions for this year's British local council elections coming soon). A Liberal Democrat surge undermined the Conservatives' efforts to take the other seat in Brislington East (it split Labour/Conservative in 2016) and puts them in good stead to challenge in Brislington West, which is split Labour/Liberal Democrat at present in terms of council representation.
Yesterday, Labour had one of their worst performances in a local by-election in Greater London in recent years in seats they were defending. After their candidate was suspended in Alperton, the Liberal Democrats captured it on a surprising 29.2% swing; given how badly the Liberal Democrats performed in much of suburban London to the point where they lost their only remaining council seats in Barnet, Brent and Harrow this comeback is even more significant. Labour's dominance of many councils in London is clearly starting to wear, as shown by the Conservatives missing out on gaining a seat in Barnhill by just 71 votes in the by-election there, a rare example of a double by-election. Like most London boroughs, Brent voted Remain in the EU referendum but not to the same extent as Camden or Westminster next door. Even the safest of the three wards having a by-election in Brent, Wembley Central, saw a pro-Conservative swing as high as 13.8%, and this means that the London Assembly seat of Brent & Harrow is looking vulnerable for Labour this year, even with Labour set to dominate the Mayor of London election and the London Assembly election. Furthermore, Brent & Harrow is not naturally Liberal Democrat-friendly territory, with the effects of Sarah Teather's win of the Brent East by-election of 2003 mainly only lasting until 2010.
Meanwhile, in the rural Scottish borders (technically Dumfries & Galloway but it borders Cumbria), Boris Johnson's clear rejection of Nicola Sturgeon's request for a Scottish independence referendum during the lifetime of this Parliament emboldened Conservative supporters, with the Brexit factor not being of significance this time. The SNP made comparatively little headway by comparison, with the supporters of independent candidates in 2017 largely plumping for the Conservatives.
The Withdrawal Agreement Bill became an Act yesterday when it achieved Royal Assent, so Britain is now officially leaving the European Union next week, with all the consequences that entails. It is time for all progressives in Britain to now focus on tackling more critical long-term problems, such as finding solutions to tackle man-made climate change, protecting the rights of people with disabilities which have been systematically violated over the last decade, and much-needed reform of our broken political system.
(16/1/20):
Bristol UA, Brislington East: Labour 865 (39.7%, +0.6%), Conservative 647 (29.7%, -7.0%), Liberal Democrats 486 (22.3%, +11.6%), Green 179 (8.2%, -5.1%).
(23/1/20):
Brent LBC, Alperton: Liberal Democrats 1699 (39.7%, +30.7%), Labour* 1304 (30.5%, -27.7%), Conservative 900 (21.0%, -1.0%), Green 373 (8.7%, -2.1%). Liberal Democrat gain from Labour.
Brent LBC, Barnhill (double election): Labour 1194/1152 (46.5%, -17.5%), Conservative 1082/1018 (41.7%, +16.4%), Green 231/171 (8.0%), Liberal Democrats 118/76 (3.8%,-3.6%).
Brent LBC, Wembley Central: Labour 1945 (54.5%, -13.2%), Conservative 1090 (30.6%, +14.3%), Liberal Democrats 378 (10.6%, +1.5%), Green 154 (4.3%, -2.6%).
Dumfries & Galloway UA, Mid Galloway & Wigtown West (1st preferences): Conservative 2177 (61.8%, +22.3%), SNP 898 (25.5%, +1.9%), Green 225 (6.4%, +4.2%), Labour 220 (6.3%, -0.6%). Conservative hold at stage 1.[No Independents stood]
*The Labour candidate in the Alperton by-election, Chetan Harpale, was suspended from the Labour Party after it was alleged he had posted anti-Muslim Tweets. His name still remained on ballot papers as nominations had closed when Labour suspended him.
The first local by-election was in a key suburban marginal where a Labour loss would have led to Labour only holding Bristol council on the Mayor's casting vote-and Bristol council has all-out elections in May (predictions for this year's British local council elections coming soon). A Liberal Democrat surge undermined the Conservatives' efforts to take the other seat in Brislington East (it split Labour/Conservative in 2016) and puts them in good stead to challenge in Brislington West, which is split Labour/Liberal Democrat at present in terms of council representation.
Yesterday, Labour had one of their worst performances in a local by-election in Greater London in recent years in seats they were defending. After their candidate was suspended in Alperton, the Liberal Democrats captured it on a surprising 29.2% swing; given how badly the Liberal Democrats performed in much of suburban London to the point where they lost their only remaining council seats in Barnet, Brent and Harrow this comeback is even more significant. Labour's dominance of many councils in London is clearly starting to wear, as shown by the Conservatives missing out on gaining a seat in Barnhill by just 71 votes in the by-election there, a rare example of a double by-election. Like most London boroughs, Brent voted Remain in the EU referendum but not to the same extent as Camden or Westminster next door. Even the safest of the three wards having a by-election in Brent, Wembley Central, saw a pro-Conservative swing as high as 13.8%, and this means that the London Assembly seat of Brent & Harrow is looking vulnerable for Labour this year, even with Labour set to dominate the Mayor of London election and the London Assembly election. Furthermore, Brent & Harrow is not naturally Liberal Democrat-friendly territory, with the effects of Sarah Teather's win of the Brent East by-election of 2003 mainly only lasting until 2010.
Meanwhile, in the rural Scottish borders (technically Dumfries & Galloway but it borders Cumbria), Boris Johnson's clear rejection of Nicola Sturgeon's request for a Scottish independence referendum during the lifetime of this Parliament emboldened Conservative supporters, with the Brexit factor not being of significance this time. The SNP made comparatively little headway by comparison, with the supporters of independent candidates in 2017 largely plumping for the Conservatives.
The Withdrawal Agreement Bill became an Act yesterday when it achieved Royal Assent, so Britain is now officially leaving the European Union next week, with all the consequences that entails. It is time for all progressives in Britain to now focus on tackling more critical long-term problems, such as finding solutions to tackle man-made climate change, protecting the rights of people with disabilities which have been systematically violated over the last decade, and much-needed reform of our broken political system.
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