Alan's Green Thoughts

Readers, the results of British local by-elections from 21 November 2019 were as follows: Aberdeen UA, Torry & Feryhill (1st preference votes): SNP 1618 (43.2%, +11.8%), Conservative 972 (26.0%, +2.1%), Labour 395 (10.6%, -12.8%), Liberal Democrats 315 (8.4%, -2.3%), Green 304 (8.1%, +3.3%), Independent (McLean) 86 (2.3%), UKIP 53 (1.4%, +0.5%). SNP elected at stage 6. Cardiff UA, Llanishen: Conservative 1566 (43.4%, +6.3%), Labour 1254 (34.7%, -1.2%), Liberal Democrats 387 (10.7%, +3.1%), Plaid Cymru 209 (5.8%, +3.1%), Green 138 (3.8%, -3.0%), Independent (Gwynn) 59 (1.6%). Conservative gain from Labour.   Chichester DC, Loxwood: Conservative 1005 (61.8%, +17.4%), Liberal Democrats 486 (29.9%, -25.7%), Green 126 (7.7%), Patria 9 (0.6%). Conservative gain from Liberal Democrat. Moray UA, Keith & Cullen (1st preference votes): Conservative 1142 (41.5%, +7.1%), SNP 1047 (38.1%, -0.7%), Independent (Robson) 349 (12.7%, +3.3%), Liberal Democrats 212 (7.7%). Conservative ...

Last month, I made a list of revised predictions for the 2019 general election, the most difficult to predict in modern British political history (i.e. since 1950). However, even in the last seventeen days, the dynamics have changed significantly. The revised list of October 2019 was published before the "Unite to Remain" alliance was announced, and before Nigel Farage announced that the Brexit Party would withdraw from all 317 Conservative-held seats, which it did, prompting some Brexit Party candidates to stand as Independents. The Brexit Party is also not standing in the following 9 Labour-held seats in England (in addition to Chorley, contested by new Speaker of the House of Commons Sir Lindsay Hoyle, and furthermore the majority of seats in Scotland where the Remain vote is overall strongest of the four nations of the United Kingdom): Brent Central, Bristol North West, Canterbury, Dudley North, Ealing North, Ellesmere Port & Neston, Gateshead, Liverpool Walton, Ne...

Readers, the results of British local by-elections from the first two weeks of November 2019 were as follows: (07/11/19): Chelmsford BC, Marconi: Liberal Democrats 563 (48.1%, -0.1%), Conservative 311 (26.6%, +0.4%), Labour 156 (13.3%, -12.3%), Independent (Chambers) 72 (6.1%), Green 69 (5.9%). Cornwall UA, Wadebridge West: Independent (Moorcroft) 552 (38.5%), Conservative 494 (34.5%, -2.2%), Liberal Democrats 250 (17.5%, -31.6%), Robyn Harris 13 (0.9%). Croydon LBC, Fairfield: Labour 849 (40.8%, -10.2%), Conservative 536 (25.7%, -4.1%), Liberal Democrats 397 (19.1%, +10.0%), Green 237 (11.4%, +1.3%), WEP 40 (1.9%), Independent (Samuel) 23 (1.1%). Pembrokeshire UA, Hundleton: Independent (Alderman) 220 (36.2%), Conservative 128 (21.1%, -4.5%), Daphne Bush 58 (9.6%), Liberal Democrats 57 (9.4%), Independent (Hancock) 46 (7.6%, -2.6%), Independent (Stenson) 37 (6.1%), Independent (Edwards) 35 (5.8%), Independent (Grange) 25 (4.1%, -11.2%), Independent (Nutting) 1 (0.2%). In...

The November 2019 Spanish general election, held after coalition talks led by the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) failed to form a government, resulted in a sharper divide between left and right, similar to what is being seen in most other European countries. It was the centrist Citizens' Party (Ciudadanos) who lost out the most in this election, and they had enough seats to become junior partners in a Pedro Sanchez and PSOE-led government after initial talks between PSOE and the more socialist United Left-Podemos coalition of Pablo Iglesias failed. The C's lost nearly 3/5 of their April 2019 vote and were reduced to just 10 seats, which came from just four major Spanish cities. It found its Spanish nationalist mantra usurped by the extreme nationalist Vox, who won as many as 52 seats and third place in the Spanish polls with 15.1% of the vote nationally. Furthermore, the events in Catalonia are strengthening support for regionalist parties across Spain, both insi...

The 2017-19 Parliament dissolved on Wednesday in preparation for the general election on 12 December 2019, overshadowed by Brexit to such an extent that earlier today a "Unite to Remain" alliance between the Greens, Liberal Democrats, and (in some Welsh constituencies, including all but one currently represented by a Plaid Cymru MP) Plaid Cymru was announced. As many as 71 MPs (73 if the fact that Bassetlaw and Buckingham have been vacated early by John Mann and former Speaker John Bercow are counted) are retiring at this election, and some will be remembered more than others. More than a third of MPs retiring at this election have been in Parliament for less than a decade (25 to be exact), reflecting how stressful the Brexit chaos, and the increasing social media scrutiny of politics in general, has been on MPs. Out of the MPs retiring, here are the three I will miss most (and this has been a particularly difficult decision to make, even if it is my own pe...

The local by-election analyses still continue, even with a general election looming. Unusually, the three local by-elections in Britain this week took place on different days: Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday (which is of course the usual day for British elections; a plan to hold this year's general election on Monday 9th December instead of Thursday 12th December was turned down in Parliament at the amendment stage). Their results were as follows: (29/10/2019): Warwick DC, Leamington Lillington: Liberal Democrats 1296 (55.3%, +7.4%), Conservative 664 (28.3%, +11.6%), Labour 384 (16.4%, -6.5%). [Greens did not stand] (30/10/2019): Windsor & Maidenhead BC, Maidenhead Riverside: Conservative 794 (41.0%, +5.6%), Liberal Democrats 566 (29.3%, +9.5%), The Borough First 428 (22.6%, -5.4%) Labour 70 (3.6%, -4.0%), Green 60 (3.1%, -5.9%), WEP 16 (0.8%). (31/10/19): Worcestershire CC, Bromsgrove South: Conservative 769 (40.2%, -0.3%), Independent (Jenkins) 4...