Alan's Green Thoughts

Readers, the results of British local by-elections held on 29 August 2019 were as follows: Bolton MBC, Radcliffe West: Radcliffe First 824 (41.7%), Labour 708 (35.8%, -24.7%), Conservative 283 (14.3%,-10.7%), Liberal Democrats 113 (5.7%, +2.7%), UKIP 50 (2.5%). Radcliffe First gain from Labour; all changes are since May 2019. South Lanarkshire UA, East Kilbride Central North (1st preferences): SNP 1582 (46.5%, +4.2%), Labour 690 (20.3%, -11.3%), Conservative 498 (14.6%, -4.1%), Liberal Democrats 422 (12.4%, +9.9%), Green 153 (4.5%, +0.6%), UKIP 48 (1.4%), Libertarian 12 (0.4%). SNP elected at stage 5. There was also a Scottish Parliament by-election on the island of Shetland (for Scottish Parliament purposes Orkney is a separate constituency, even though Orkney & Shetland form a single Westminster parliamentary constituency) whose results were as follows: John Adamson, Labour, 152 (1.3%, -4.6%) Brydon Goodlad, Conservative, 425 (3.6%, -0.1%) Stuart Martin, UKIP, 60 (0.5...

Readers, the results of British local by-elections on 15 August 2019 and 22 August 2019 (one apiece) were as follows: (15/08/19): Shropshire UA, Meole: Conservative 438 (37.6%, -17.8%), Liberal Democrats 309 (26.5%, +14.4%), Labour 286 (24.6%, -2.9%), Green 131 (11.3%, +6.3%). (22/08/19): Rugby BC, Rokeby & Overslade: Liberal Democrats 963 (56.1%, -7.0%), Conservative 346 (20.1%, +1.8%), Labour 165 (9.6%, -8.8%), Brexit 163 (9.5%), Green 79 (4.6%). All changes are since May 2019. The county council elections of 2017, and unitary authority elections for former county councils of which Shropshire is one (alongside Cornwall, Durham, Northumberland and Wiltshire) were good for the Conservatives generally, so the 16% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat in the prosperous and well-educated Meole ward is not surprising, since these types of wards will experience the strongest swings away from the Conservatives in the current political climate. Meanwhile in Rugby, the sm...

Lately, it has been predicted that there will be an early general election this autumn, which is likely to be triggered by a vote of no confidence against Boris Johnson, although this is not guaranteed to succeed and since the Conservatives still have a working majority of one, there will need to be rebellion by a few Conservative MPs for it to succeed. Claims that it will be held on 1st November, the day after Britain is due to leave the European Union, are spurious not only due to the timing being unworkable in practice but also because general elections in Britain are always held on Thursdays; 1st November 2019 is a Friday . With the vote likely to be more fragmented than ever before in such a scenario, and with the spate of defections, making plausible predictions is very difficult. Nevertheless, with the Remain/Leave divide remaining the strongest factor, and taking into account the effects of the Change UK split and subsequent developments, I can list what seats each party woul...

Readers, the results of British local by-elections from 8th August 2019 were as follows: Cambridge BC, Newnham: Liberal Democrats 774 (59.5%, +16.3%), Labour 235 (18.1%, -18.1%), Green 149 (11.5%, +1.5%), Conservative 143 (11.0%, +0.2%). All changes are since May 2019. East Northamptonshire DC, Irthlingborough Waterloo: Conservative 542 (53.1%, -2.2%), Labour 478 (46.9%, +11.6%).[BNP did not stand] Worcester BC, Claines: Liberal Democrats 1307 (47.6%, +8.2%), Conservative 1252 (45.6%, +3.0%), Green 125 (4.6%, -3.7%), Labour 60 (2.2%, -2.7%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative. Meanwhile in town council elections, not often covered on this blog, the Green Party won their first ever town council seat in the seaside town of Lyme Regis, Dorset. The Greens' potential is growing strongly in Dorset as a whole, especially in the west of that county. The spectre of a snap general election close to the Brexit date of 31st October looms ever closer, and it w...

Readers, the results of the Brecon & Radnorshire by-election were as follows: Chris Davies, Conservative, 12,401 (38.9%, -9.6%) Tom Davies, Labour, 1,680 (5.3%, -12.5%) Jane Dodds, Liberal Democrats, 13,826 (43.5%, +14.4%) Des Parkinson, Brexit Party, 3,331 (10.5%) Liz Phillips, UKIP, 242 (0.8%, -0.6%) Lady Lily the Pink, OMRLP, 334 (1.0%). Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative. It is clear that the Conservatives brought this by-election loss on themselves, irrespective of any "Boris bounce" hype, which proved to be just hype. It was Chris Davies' conviction for false expenses claims that caused this by-election to happen at all, and reselecting him after he had been successfully recalled doomed the Conservatives from the outset. Brexit became the overriding issue in this by-election, mainly due to Brecon & Radnorshire being the most rural and agricultural constituency in England & Wales, with no towns having a population of 10,000 people o...