My analysis of by-elections from 10/1/19 and other thoughts

Readers, the results from the two local by-elections in Britain held this week were as follows:

East Sussex CC, Bexhill West: Independent (Earl-Williams) 1761 (51.9%), Conservative 1071 (31.6%, -1.7%), Liberal Democrats 261 (7.7%, +2.1%), Labour 111 (3.3%, -3.8%), Green 107 (3.2%), UKIP 81 (2.4%, -1.2%).

Rother DC, Bexhill St Marks: Independent (Harmer) 1000 (60.7%), Conservative 521 (31.6%, +0.2%), Labour 79 (4.8%, -6.2%), UKIP 48 (2.9%,-18.1%).

*A Liberal Democrat candidate was nominated for the (Bexhill) St Marks by-election but this nomination was subsequently withdrawn.

One of the independents was the widow of the deceased Independent councillor, Stuart Earl, with another being a supporter of Stuart Earl. Local independents have had strong support in Bexhill for years, and in one of the most strongly Conservative areas of the country, which also has one of the oldest populations in the UK. Unsurprisingly, swings were low in the county council by-election, but a significant drop in the UKIP vote occurred in the district council by-election as their last elections were in 2015, but East Sussex County Council last had elections in 2017.

This is a rather slow period for local by-elections due to the "six month rule" having taken effect in November 2018, and the majority of councils in Britain hold their elections this May.

For those of you who watched Fiona Bruce's first hosting of Question Time yesterday, I will say that she has brought a much needed breath of fresh air to the show and that she has hosted it admirably and efficiently. This will also hopefully lead to more panels with a majority of female panellists on Question Time, which was rare in the David Dimbleby era.







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