My analysis of by-elections from 10/1/19 and other thoughts

Readers, the results from the two local by-elections in Britain held this week were as follows:

East Sussex CC, Bexhill West: Independent (Earl-Williams) 1761 (51.9%), Conservative 1071 (31.6%, -1.7%), Liberal Democrats 261 (7.7%, +2.1%), Labour 111 (3.3%, -3.8%), Green 107 (3.2%), UKIP 81 (2.4%, -1.2%).

Rother DC, Bexhill St Marks: Independent (Harmer) 1000 (60.7%), Conservative 521 (31.6%, +0.2%), Labour 79 (4.8%, -6.2%), UKIP 48 (2.9%,-18.1%).

*A Liberal Democrat candidate was nominated for the (Bexhill) St Marks by-election but this nomination was subsequently withdrawn.

One of the independents was the widow of the deceased Independent councillor, Stuart Earl, with another being a supporter of Stuart Earl. Local independents have had strong support in Bexhill for years, and in one of the most strongly Conservative areas of the country, which also has one of the oldest populations in the UK. Unsurprisingly, swings were low in the county council by-election, but a significant drop in the UKIP vote occurred in the district council by-election as their last elections were in 2015, but East Sussex County Council last had elections in 2017.

This is a rather slow period for local by-elections due to the "six month rule" having taken effect in November 2018, and the majority of councils in Britain hold their elections this May.

For those of you who watched Fiona Bruce's first hosting of Question Time yesterday, I will say that she has brought a much needed breath of fresh air to the show and that she has hosted it admirably and efficiently. This will also hopefully lead to more panels with a majority of female panellists on Question Time, which was rare in the David Dimbleby era.







Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

My analysis of local by-elections from 22/11/18

Readers, the results of this week's British local by-elections were as follows: Enfield LBC, Bush Hill Park: Conservative 1540 (52.4%, +12.7%), Labour 828 (28.2%, -8.3%), Liberal Democrats 313 (10.7%, -0.8%), Green 127 (4.3%, -6.6%), WEP 79 (2.7%), Independent (Oyaloyu) 50 (1.7%). [UKIP did not stand] Westminster LBC, Lancaster Gate: Conservative 913 (47.2%, -1.5%), Labour 684 (35.4%, -1.0%), Liberal Democrats 275 (14.2%, -0.7%), Green 62 (3.2%). Windsor & Maidenhead UA, Datchet: Conservative 525 (56.0%, -3.1%), National Flood Prevention Party 223 (23.8%), Labour 121 (12.9%, -9.1%), Liberal Democrats 48 (5.1%,-13.8%), Green 21 (2.2%). Wirral MBC, Upton: Labour 1490 (61.3%, +3.1%), Conservative 705 (29.0%, +0.4%), Green 151 (6.2%, -0.5%), Liberal Democrats 83 (3.4%, -0.8%). [TUSC did not stand] All changes are since May. The open divisions in the Conservatives, which resulted in a failed attempt to call for a vote of no confidence in Theresa May by the European Researc...
Read more

On the 2020 Serbian election: Why a boycott will only worsen things there

First of all, I apologise for the recent hiatus; however elections are still postponed or on hold in many countries, including the UK. Serbia, however, was able to proceed with its 2020 general election amidst this crisis. Its overall result proved reminiscent of Hungarian elections under Viktor Orban's tenure (2010-present), since the leading national-conservative coalition, the SNS (Progressive Party of Serbia) coalition led by Serbian President Aleksander Vucic (Ana Brnabic is the Serbian Prime Minister, and the first woman and openly homosexual person to hold that position), polled 61.6% of the vote, giving them as many as 191 seats out of 250 and a majority of as high as 132, almost unheard of in any country with proportional representation. Press freedom has endured significant curbs since President Vucic first came into power as Serbian PM in 2012 (he became President of Serbia in 2017), as have civil liberties of Serbs in general. Nepotism and corruption in the Serbian ...
Read more

On the French local elections of 2020: Vive le surge de vert!

The French local elections finally concluded yesterday, having been originally scheduled to take place on 15 March; they were postponed due to the effects of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.  The most sensational story of these elections was the many triumphs by the main French Green Party, Europe Ecologie-Les Verts (EELV). In major French cities (those with more than 100,000 people), EELV captured the mayoralties of Annecy, Besancon, Bordeaux, Lyon, Marseille, Strasbourg, and Tours. They also performed impressively in the munciipal elections for those cities as well. However, in the midst of all this triumph there was one notable setback for them: Eric Pollie, the first Green Mayor of a major French city, decided to contest the mayoral election there as an "Independent Left" (divers gauche) candidate instead. Furthermore they narrowly missed out on unseating former PS leader Martine Aubry from her post as Mayor of Lille; in the second round she held on by 227 votes, a sig...
Read more