Local election predictions 2019
The next local elections to many councils in England will take place in May, which will happen irrespective of what happens between Britain and continental Europe.
A lot of these councils will experience significant boundary changes, with Warwick's set of ward boundary changes becoming its second this decade alone. The other councils experiencing boundary changes, excluding those that have come into being as a result of council mergers, include Allerdale, Ashford, Babergh, Bath & North East Somerset, Bolsover, Cheshire West & Chester, Chichester, Crawley, Dartford, Dover, East Cambridgeshire, East Devon, East Hampshire, Eastbourne, Forest of Dean, Harborough, Hertsmere, Horsham, King's Lynn & West Norfolk, Lewes, Mid Suffolk, North Devon, North East Derbyshire, North Norfolk, Norwich, Nottingham, Preston, Redcar & Cleveland, Reigate & Banstead, Ribble Valley, Richmondshire, Rother, Runnymede, Rutland, Scarborough, South Gloucestershire, South Norfolk, South Somerset, Surrey Heath, Teignbridge, Tendring, Test Valley, Tewkesbury, Torbay, Torridge, Wealden, West Berkshire, and Windsor & Maidenhead. In addition, Great Yarmouth and Wyre Forest councils will hold full council elections henceforth from this year.
Of the 248 councils holding elections this year, the overall outcome will not realistically be in doubt for many, such as in East Hertfordshire where I grew up. However, there are large numbers of battlegrounds which will prove competitive, especially in the current political environment. Many of these councils will have last held elections in 2015, which were boosted by general election turnout. Barring an unlikely snap general election in May 2019, this factor will not be present and the Conservatives stand to lose the most in areas where general election turnout indirectly helped them win council seats. Meanwhile, Labour's intransigence on Brexit will cost it large numbers of council seats in well-educated and cosmopolitan areas of Britain, and it is still in serious trouble in former industrial/mining areas. The Green Party stand to make significant gains particularly in South West England and the West Midlands, and much of the south of England, especially where there are large numbers of London commuters is vulnerable to the Liberal Democrats, as already seen to some extent in the 2017 county council elections.
So, of the councils up for election this year that have a reasonable chance of changing hands, or are already expected to change hands, which ones will flip and which will ones will not? Here is what I believe will happen. (NB: These are based on the election results to these councils on 7 May 2015 in the case of councils holding full council elections only)
Conservative hold: Amber Valley, Basingstoke & Deane, Cotswold, Dover, Erewash, Gravesham, Mendip, Mid Suffolk, North Lincolnshire, South Derbyshire, Teignbridge.
Conservative gain from Labour: None.
Conservative gain from No Overall Control (NOC): Boston, Dudley, Telford & The Wrekin, Tendring, Thurrock.
Conservative lose to NOC: Bath & North East Somerset, Broxtowe, Herefordshire, Lewes, Malvern Hills, Peterborough, St Albans, South Ribble, Tandridge, Warwick, Welwyn Hatfield.
Conservative gain from UKIP: Thanet.
Labour hold: Cambridge, Cheshire West & Chester.
Labour gain from Conservative: High Peak.
Labour gain from NOC: Allerdale, Calderdale, Lancaster, Redcar & Cleveland, Trafford.
Labour lose to NOC: Ashfield, Bolton, Cannock Chase, Copeland.
Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative: Hinckley & Bosworth, North Norfolk, Vale of White Horse, Winchester.
Liberal Democrat gain from NOC: South Somerset.
Other gains from Labour: Mansfield (Mansfield Independent Forum gain from Labour)
Other gains from Conservative: Rutland (Independents gain)
Too close to call: Brighton & Hove, Forest of Dean, Scarborough, Stoke-on-Trent, South Gloucestershire, Torridge, York.
A lot of these councils will experience significant boundary changes, with Warwick's set of ward boundary changes becoming its second this decade alone. The other councils experiencing boundary changes, excluding those that have come into being as a result of council mergers, include Allerdale, Ashford, Babergh, Bath & North East Somerset, Bolsover, Cheshire West & Chester, Chichester, Crawley, Dartford, Dover, East Cambridgeshire, East Devon, East Hampshire, Eastbourne, Forest of Dean, Harborough, Hertsmere, Horsham, King's Lynn & West Norfolk, Lewes, Mid Suffolk, North Devon, North East Derbyshire, North Norfolk, Norwich, Nottingham, Preston, Redcar & Cleveland, Reigate & Banstead, Ribble Valley, Richmondshire, Rother, Runnymede, Rutland, Scarborough, South Gloucestershire, South Norfolk, South Somerset, Surrey Heath, Teignbridge, Tendring, Test Valley, Tewkesbury, Torbay, Torridge, Wealden, West Berkshire, and Windsor & Maidenhead. In addition, Great Yarmouth and Wyre Forest councils will hold full council elections henceforth from this year.
Of the 248 councils holding elections this year, the overall outcome will not realistically be in doubt for many, such as in East Hertfordshire where I grew up. However, there are large numbers of battlegrounds which will prove competitive, especially in the current political environment. Many of these councils will have last held elections in 2015, which were boosted by general election turnout. Barring an unlikely snap general election in May 2019, this factor will not be present and the Conservatives stand to lose the most in areas where general election turnout indirectly helped them win council seats. Meanwhile, Labour's intransigence on Brexit will cost it large numbers of council seats in well-educated and cosmopolitan areas of Britain, and it is still in serious trouble in former industrial/mining areas. The Green Party stand to make significant gains particularly in South West England and the West Midlands, and much of the south of England, especially where there are large numbers of London commuters is vulnerable to the Liberal Democrats, as already seen to some extent in the 2017 county council elections.
So, of the councils up for election this year that have a reasonable chance of changing hands, or are already expected to change hands, which ones will flip and which will ones will not? Here is what I believe will happen. (NB: These are based on the election results to these councils on 7 May 2015 in the case of councils holding full council elections only)
Conservative hold: Amber Valley, Basingstoke & Deane, Cotswold, Dover, Erewash, Gravesham, Mendip, Mid Suffolk, North Lincolnshire, South Derbyshire, Teignbridge.
Conservative gain from Labour: None.
Conservative gain from No Overall Control (NOC): Boston, Dudley, Telford & The Wrekin, Tendring, Thurrock.
Conservative lose to NOC: Bath & North East Somerset, Broxtowe, Herefordshire, Lewes, Malvern Hills, Peterborough, St Albans, South Ribble, Tandridge, Warwick, Welwyn Hatfield.
Conservative gain from UKIP: Thanet.
Labour hold: Cambridge, Cheshire West & Chester.
Labour gain from Conservative: High Peak.
Labour gain from NOC: Allerdale, Calderdale, Lancaster, Redcar & Cleveland, Trafford.
Labour lose to NOC: Ashfield, Bolton, Cannock Chase, Copeland.
Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative: Hinckley & Bosworth, North Norfolk, Vale of White Horse, Winchester.
Liberal Democrat gain from NOC: South Somerset.
Other gains from Labour: Mansfield (Mansfield Independent Forum gain from Labour)
Other gains from Conservative: Rutland (Independents gain)
Too close to call: Brighton & Hove, Forest of Dean, Scarborough, Stoke-on-Trent, South Gloucestershire, Torridge, York.
You still think that the tories can hold Amber Valley? I would be surprised indeed if this isn't a Labour gain and certainly has to be at best too close to call.
ReplyDeleteFascinating work Alan. Let me know if you can find out more about any red-green groups or parties across the EU. I think we really need to connect with them. Any predictions about the 12th December GE? Now that would be a challenge...nicole haydock.
ReplyDeleteI have made some predictions about which seats will change hands, and which seats should be watched, regarding the 2019 general election here, Nicole: https://alansgreenthoughts.blogspot.com/2019/10/predicting-december-2019-general.html
DeleteAs for red-green groups in EU member states, key examples include the Unitarian Democratic Coalition in Portugal and the Red-Green Alliance in Denmark.