Behind the ballot...why the deal was doomed and why the no confidence vote had no chance

On Tuesday, Theresa May's Brexit deal, quoted by many as reducing Britain to "a vassal state of the European Union" was defeated by a historic margin of 432 votes to 202. Just 196 Conservative MPs voted for the deal, aided by 3 Labour MPs (Ian Austin, Kevin Barron, and John Mann) and 3 Independents (Lady Sylvia Hermon, Stephen Lloyd and John Woodcock)

This prompted Jeremy Corbyn to call a vote of no confidence in the government itself, which had it succeeded would have inevitably resulted in a snap general election the way the vote of no confidence in James Callaghan's government in 1979 did. However, it was defeated by 306 votes to 325, with not a single Conservative MP voting no confidence in the government and with the Independent Unionist, Lady Sylvia Hermon (MP for North Down since 2001) voting to support the government. Earlier today, the Liberal Democrats stated they would not support any future Labour no confidence votes during the course of this Parliament: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/17/lib-dems-refuse-to-support-future-labour-no-confidence-votes?CMP=share_btn_fb&fbclid=IwAR3AnPK9z_2oz3HEOhlmVBN8WWlwOzAOyBaQs8XpnMhotxNmZPF2OtP0bVg

The deal was doomed to fail for three good reasons. One, it did not appeal to either side, pro-European or anti-European. It would have subjected Britain to EU laws without access to the European market or other benefits of EU membership. Two, the "deal" was seen as retribution from EU commissioners because Britain had voted to leave the European Union in the first place. Three, it did not give Britain any remotely significant benefit from it or help stimulate socioeconomic revival in poorer areas of Britain who had felt they had not benefitted from EU membership.

Meanwhile, the vote of no confidence in the government was also almost certain to fail simply down to parliamentary mathematics: the Conservatives and DUP have a total of 327 MPs, compared to just 315 who take their seats and vote. The 7 Sinn Fein MPs never take their seats and the Speaker does not vote except to break a tie. When Anna Soubry, the pro-European Conservative MP for Broxtowe, publicly announced she was backing Theresa May's government in the vote of no confidence, said vote of no confidence was doomed since a rebellion from pro-EU Conservatives was its only possible chance of success.

With no deal predicted to bring dire consequences for Britain due to a loss of vital trade and opportunities relating to Europe, a second referendum on Britain's membership of the EU, as Green MP Caroline Lucas rightly says, is now necessary and in the public interest, although an Article 50 extension is needed first to give enough time to said second referendum/People's Vote.




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