Alan's Green Thoughts

Yesterday, Caroline Lucas MP announced she would not be standing again as co-leader of the Green Party: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/30/caroline-lucas-to-step-down-as-green-party-co-leader The Green Party does need a fresh new face, though, as it needs to prove it is an effective political force for green politics in Britain with a wide variety of leaders. Many possible leaders for the Green Party have been cited, including Lord Mayor of Bristol Cleo Lake and Lord Mayor of Sheffield Magid Magid. However, the majority of them in addition to the other co-leader Jonathan Bartley and deputy leader Amelia Womack, have one factor in common-they are all from big cities, away from areas directly impacted by many environmental issues except for air pollution. The largest Green groups have also in the last 10 years been in metropolitan areas with high levels of private renting and large student populations also featuring known countercult...

The vote to repeal the 8th amendment to the Constitution of Ireland was decisive-the voters of Ireland voted in favour of repeal by a margin of 66.4% to 33.6%, nearly a two-thirds majority, with a turnout of 64.1%. With so much international attention, why was the turnout lower than the preceding Dail election of 2016? Unlike the competitive Dail election of 2016, the result of this referendum was a foregone conclusion. At no point in the months leading up to this referendum did "No" ever take a lead in the polls; it was always considerably behind "Yes" regarding the question of repealing the 8th amendment. The 2012 death of Savita Halappanavar, a 31-year-old dentist originally from India, as a result of septicaemia stemming from a miscarriage was one of the key events that kickstarted a drive to repeal the overly restrictive amendment; Savita could not abort her unborn child,even though it was not viable and even though complications were causing sepsis, due to...

The results of this week's local by-elections in Britain were as follows (includes elections deferred from 3rd May due to the death of a previously nominated candidate): Bristol UA, Westbury-on-Trym & Henleaze: Conservative 2900 (42.3%, -0.1%), Liberal Democrats 2704 (39.5%, +10.4%), Labour 891 (13.0%,-2.8%), Green 355 (5.2%, -7.2%). Conservative gain from Liberal Democrat. Broadland DC, Aylsham: Liberal Democrats 1018 (46.0%,+19.1%), Conservative 865 (39.1%,+6.7%), Labour 328 (14.8%, -10.0%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative. [UKIP did not stand] Horsham DC, Cowfold, Shermanbury & West Grinstead: Conservative 661 (68.4%, -2.9%), Labour 158 (16.3%), Liberal Democrats 148 (15.3%, -13.4%). North Kesteven DC, Kirkby la Thorpe & South Kyme: Lincolnshire Independents 278 (45.9%, +10.3%), Conservative 271 (44.7%, -19.7%), Labour 30 (5.0%), Liberal Democrats 27 (4.5%). Lincolnshire Independent gain from Conservative. Stockport MBC, Edgeley Green & Cheadle ...

Tomorrow, the Republic of Ireland goes to the polls for a historic referendum on repealing the (in)famous 8th amendment to the Constitution of Ireland, which states: The State acknowledges the right to life of the unborn and, with due regard to the equal right of life of the mother, guarantees its laws to respect and, as far as practicable, by its laws to vindicate and defend that right. This poll has garnered international attention due to the subject matter, and many thousands of Irish people living in the United Kingdom are coming home to Ireland to vote in the referendum. Despite being a pro-life Catholic, I will say here that the 8th amendment needs to be repealed, and replaced, for three reasons. Firstly, it is not practicable given how so many women wanting abortions travel abroad to where abortion is legal anyway, mainly the United Kingdom, and in light of the recent case of a young mother who, despite being declared brain dead, was not initially allowed to undergo a ...

This week's British local by-elections were the first since the May 2018 local elections. The results were as follows: Lancaster BC, Skerton West: Labour 587 (57.5%, +22.6%), Conservative 279 (27.4%, +0.6%), Liberal Democrats 95 (9.3%), Green 59 (5.8%, -3.7%). [UKIP did not stand] Lancaster BC, University & Scotforth Rural: Labour 518/423 (46.1%, +10.2%), Green 264/235 (24.4%, -7.5%), Conservative 184/184 (18.0%, -7.7%), Liberal Democrats 120/114 (10.5%, +4.9%). Labour gain from Green (double by-election; Labour hold other seat). Suffolk Coastal DC, Leiston: Conservative 612 (42.1%, +10.7%), Labour 336 (23.7%, -0.6%), Independent 293 (20.2%), Liberal Democrats 213 (14.6%, +6.9%). [Other independent candidates and the Green Party did not stand]. NB: The Green councillor who resigned his seat in University & Scotforth Rural, Sam Armstrong, defected to Labour before resigning his seat. The Green Party's loss of their council seat in the double by-election in Univ...

"I knew this would happen. I put you on the jury and you vote for the stupidest film." Marge Simpson to her husband Homer, "The Simpsons (A Star is Burns)". The Eurovision song contest of 2018 was the most interesting I have known in my lifetime, and the first one in which I cast a vote. It was also decided almost entirely by phone in voting from the general public, which overrided the votes of all 43 national juries. This most of all applies to Sweden's derivative and medicore song, "Dance You Off": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4lGDRmrQLTA    -it received 271 points from the juries of the participating countries (finishing second before the phone-in votes were announced), yet it received the joint-lowest vote of the public (along with the Portuguese entry), scoring just 9 points among that section but still giving it a respectable total of 280 points in the end. The "expert jury vote" is more substantially affected by national and p...

The Malaysian general election of 9 May 2018 will go down in political history, for a wide variety of reasons. 1. The ruling coalition, Barisan National ("National Front" of Malaysia) was finally ousted after 61 years in office, despite always stacking the odds firmly in its favour. Barisan National had in fact won fewer votes than the main social-democratic coalition, Pakatan Rakyat, in 2013 but because of grievous malapportionment and gerrymandering of constituency boundaries (the majority of urban constituencies have a population that is on average eight times that of rural constituencies, which gives the coalition parties of Barisan National an obviously unfair advantage) Barisan National still won 133 seats for a safe majority of 24. As this malapportionment, rivalled only by Japan in terms of democratic nations (although Japan also has proportional representation seats which Malaysia lacks) has not been rectified for decades, and as the Electoral Commission of Mal...

In these British local elections of 2018, the first to take place both post-Brexit and both post-snap general election, there were only two national trends: the collapse of UKIP and the long-term effects of demographic change on political results, which have been accelerated by the Brexit fault lines that were one of the strongest factors in the 2017 general election. The West Tyrone by-election took place on the same day, and it proved to be an easy hold for Sinn Fein's Orfhlaith Begley, despite swings away from the "hardliner" parties (Sinn Fein and the DUP) on the nationalist/unionist divide towards their more moderate counterparts, the SDLP and UUP; the Alliance increased their vote share by 0.9% but lost their deposit yet again. Turnout was good by by-election standards at 55.1%, despite the relative lack of coverage of the campaign outside Northern Ireland. There were mayoral elections in Hackney, Lewisham, Newham, Tower Hamlets, and Watford alongside these elec...

It is not just in Greater London that demographic change has been having a long-term political effect; councils are increasingly going on divergent political paths, and not just because of UKIP's collapse either. The United Kingdom is becoming very disunited politically at a local level. Since so many councils in Britain still elect councillors by thirds or by halves (the number is decreasing with each passing year, however) it was difficult for most councils to change hands from one party to another, or even to no overall control. UKIP, as predicted, lost almost every seat they were defending; the only ward in the entire country they defended was Alvaston in the city of Derby; in said city of Derby they also won the seat of Derby council leader Ranjit Banwait, which neatly coincided with Labour losing overall control of that city and also their mayor, although beforehand they were only in overall control by one seat. The only other ward they won was Padiham in Burnley. Last ...

"Floating through the summer sky, 99 red balloons go by." -Nena, "99 Red Balloons". Or not. In fact many popped and fell right from the sky. The 2018 British local elections have now finished, with all 150 councils having declared results, Hounslow and Tower Hamlets being the last to finish. The main focus was on the London boroughs where all seats were up for election and where Labour were expected to make large gains on the back of Remain votes in prosperous central London councils, despite Labour supporting Brexit and having backed Article 50 the same way the Conservatives did. Also in 2014 there were European elections at the same time which boosted Labour and UKIP's vote in particular, and where national factors where at play. These did not apply to this year's local elections, which unlike in 2010 or 2014 did not coincide with a European or parliamentary election. The Corbynmania turned out to be just hype; Labour failed to gain a single council...

The Paraguayan general and presidential elections delivered yet more two-party dominance by the conservative Colorado Party, once led by infamous dictator Alfredo Stroessner, and the Radical Liberal Party, which in practice has very few policy differences from the Colorado Party. The total two-party vote at this election was even stronger than before, with the Colorado Party's victorious presidential candidate, Mario Abdo Benitez, achieving 46.44% with Efrain Palegre of the Great Renewed National Alliance, dominated by the Radical Liberal Party, achieving 42.74%, meaning that the two largest parties achieved 89.18% of the presidential vote between them. By contrast, their total vote share in 2008, the first defeat of the Colorado Party in 60 years, was only 74.15%. The National Union of Ethical Citizens, which briefly split the Colorado Party's vote and make a significant crack in the two-party dominance of Paraguay, has now vanished from the scene of Paraguayan politics alth...