On the by-election trio from coast to coast

Readers, the trio of British by-elections of 18th June 2026 from coast to coast (well almost - Makerfield is landlocked but it is only 35 kilometres from the northern Merseyside coast) are ones whose results will go down in psephological history, not to mention have a substantial impact on British politics as a whole. The results of those by-elections were as follows:

Aberdeen South:

David Ballantine, Alliance for Democracy & Freedom, 59 (0.2%).

Jo Hart, Reform UK, 2,478 (8.6%, +1.7%)

Nurul Hoque Ali, Labour, 1,550 (5.4%, -19.4%)

Douglas Lumsden, Conservative, 14,308 (49.5%, +25.1%)

Jorg Shelton-Eckstein, Scottish Green Party, 974 (3.8%, +0.3%)

Mel Sullivan, Liberal Democrats, 1,270 (4.4%, -1.9%)

Richard Thomson, Scottish National Party, 8,258 (28.6%, -4.3%)

Conservative GAIN from SNP.

Arbroath & Broughty Ferry:

Tanvir Ahmad, Liberal Democrats, 1,452 (6.1%, +1.0%)

Lara Bird, Scottish National Party, 9,802 (41.1%, +5.9%)

Jack Cruickshanks, Conservative, 4,524 (19.4%, +3.5%)

Heather Doran, Labour, 3,651 (15.3%, -18.0%)

Bill Reid, Reform UK, 4,341 (18.2%, +9.8%)

SNP HOLD.

Makerfield:

Jake Austin, Liberal Democrats, 163 (0.4%, -6.4%)

Count Binface, Count Binface Party, 95 (0.2%)

Andy Burnham, Labour, 24,927 (54.8%, +9.6%)

Dan Clarke, Libertarian, 18 (0.04%)

John Dyer, Independent, 37 (0.08%)

Ed Gemmell, Climate Party, 18 (0.04%)

Paul Gould, Independent, 8 (0.02%)

Howling Laud Hope, OMRLP, 45 (0.1%)

Robert Kenyon, Reform UK, 15,696 (34.5%, +2.7%)

Robert Pownall, Independent, 18 (0.04%)

Rebecca Shepherd, Restore Britain, 3,111 (6.8%)

Peter Ward, Rejoin EU, 35 (0.07%)

Sarah Wakefield, Green Party, 308 (0.7%, -3.7%)

Michael Winstanley, Conservative, 997 (2.2%, -8.7%).

Labour HOLD.

Although (now former) Mayor of Greater Manchester, and Labour MP for Leigh (now Leigh & Atherton with similar boundaries) from 2001 to 2017, Andy Burnham, was widely expected to win this by-election, he did so by a much greater margin than anyone had expected. I had predicted he would win by no more than 1,000 votes given that Labour's poll ratings and government satisfaction are at a record low, despite the personal vote he has acquired during his tenure as Mayor of Greater Manchester. In fact he won by as much as 9,231, significantly exceeding margins in any constituency poll conducted during the by-election campaign. This occurred despite his favourability rating plummeting substantially in the days leading up to the poll - flipping from +11 to -11 - his past voting record for British involvement in the Iraq War and tuition fee increases, and his platform not actually differing that much from that of the current Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer.

Mr Burnham also won due to Reform UK's campaign going wrong from the start. Before nominations had closed, its candidate, Robert Kenyon, had been criticised for supporting lewd comments made about former Countdown presenter, Carol Vorderman, and he refused to apologise for those throughout the campaign. He was also discovered to have made comments in support of Russian annexation of Crimea and numerous other sexist comments, which he had since repudiated. Furthermore, it was revealed that 11 of Reform's MSs in Wales had voted for a Plaid Cymru educational budget, exposing substantial division within Reform's ranks. 

The biggest problem Reform had during this by-election was in fact its main splinter party, Restore Britain (more extreme on nationalism and social conservatism than Reform) led by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe and funded by technology trillionaire Elon Musk. There is nothing new in Makerfield in terms of support for the most extreme-right parties - in 2010, this was infamously one of 72 constituencies where the fascist British National Party saved its deposit. Unsurprisingly Restore Britain was the only party other than Labour and Reform to save its deposit here, but they did not in fact affect the overall result due to tactical voting in favour of Mr Burnham being so heavy; polls conducted during the campaign predicted they would poll more votes than the margin between Reform and Labour; in fact their candidate, Rebecca Shepherd, secured votes amounting to just over 1/3 of the majority achieved by Mr Burnham.

The other 3 main parties found themselves squeezed from both the conservative and progressive sides of the political spectrum. Michael Winstanley's long history as a Conservative councillor and previous Mayor of Wigan meant nothing in the context of the campaign - he did not even poll half the votes required to save his deposit. Green councillor Sarah Wakefield and Liberal Democrat councillor Jake Austin saw their votes endure an even greater squeeze - both polled less than 1% and in fact this is the worst Liberal Democrat result in a by-election since universal suffrage, counting previous Liberal results. Even satirical candidates could not escape - Count Binface (real name Jonathan Harvey) only managed 95 votes, despite his manifesto famously claiming to cap the price of a Wigan kebab at £2, and his interview in the Metro came after polls had closed and thus could not have helped him, and Official Monster Raving Loony Party leader Alan "Howling Laud" Hope polled an even lower 45, his second lowest ever number of votes to date. Three Independent candidates (along with candidates for the Rejoin EU, Libertarian and Climate parties) polled even lower and for good reason - their policies were immaterial, irrelevant, or both to Makerfield. Mr Dyer was campaigning about a nuclear plant nowhere near the constituency, Mr Pownall was campaigning about wildlife in a constituency with next-to-no green space nor any significant wildlife of any kind, and Mr Gould - who received the wooden spoon for this by-election - campaigning against the Peak Cluster carbon capture pipeline, which is in fact located on the Wirral, 60 kilometres away from Makerfield. Given the high profile of this by-election, turnout increased in a United Kingdom parliamentary by-election for the first time in 40 years, from 52.3% to 58.75%, and the first on the British mainland since the Glasgow Hillhead by-election of 1982, which also marked the return of a prominent politician to the House of Commons (Roy Jenkins, later Lord Jenkins of Hillhead). 

With Andy Burnham having returned to Parliament, he is now eligible to challenge Sir Keir for the Labour leadership - and thus the position of Prime Minister- should such an opportunity arise, and a by-election will now occur for the Greater Manchester Mayoralty, which will be the biggest by-election in Britain ever with Greater Manchester having more than 2 million residents. Whether or not he actually challenges for the Labour leadership - let alone becomes Prime Minister of Britain - remains to be seen.

The Aberdeen South by-election in fact delivered the most surprising result of the trio - a Conservative gain by Douglas Lumsden MSP from 3rd place, the first time the Conservatives have won a by-election from 3rd place and the first Conservative gain in a Scottish constituency since they gained Glasgow Pollok from Labour in 1967. It also marks the largest increase in the Conservative vote in a by-election in normal circumstances (e.g. not during wartime) since 1931. The Conservatives won not only due to many voters perceiving the by-election as unnecessary (it was caused by the SNP's Stephen Flynn resigning to take up a seat in the Scottish Parliament; MSPs cannot simultaneously be MPs), which accounted for the sharp drop in turnout from 59.9% to just 38%, but also due to the SNP's support for carbon neutrality, which would result in the demise for the oil and gas industry- Aberdeenshire's largest employer - even with evidence of man-made climate change and its effects being incontrovertible, not to mention that economic and energy transitions are already underway long-term in nations currently largely dependent on oil revenues (e.g. the United Arab Emirates). The SNP were also overshadowed by its former chief executive, Peter Murrell (once married to former First Minister Nicola Sturgeon) having embezzled £400,000 from the SNP, although this did not affect the Arbroath & Broughty Ferry by-election (see below). As a result of anti-SNP tactical voting - the SNP's vote share did not in fact decrease that significantly - Labour came close to losing their deposit and the Liberal Democrats actually did so, in one of the most affluent constituencies in Scotland. The Scottish Greens found this constituency to be unsurprisingly infertile territory in light of the influence of the aforementioned oil and gas industry on the city of Aberdeen.

Meanwhile, in Arbroath & Broughty Ferry, whose by-election was caused by the same reason for Aberdeen South's - Stephen Gethins taking up a seat in the Scottish Parliament - the SNP were expected to win from the start due to Labour, who had missed out on gaining this newly created seat by 859 votes in 2024, collapsing, and that is exactly what happened- in fact Labour dropped from a close second to a poor fourth. This by-election endured the lowest turnout of the trio, at 31.5%, because of that. In fact Lara Bird - in contrast to former Gordon MP Richard Thomson (he lost the redrawn Gordon & Buchan to Harriet Cross in 2024) - increased the SNP vote by 5.9%, and the Conservatives took second place largely by default despite Reform more than doubling their vote share in this by-election. Even though the Liberal Democrats finished last, they saved their deposit - which marks the first British parliamentary by-election since the Ryedale by-election of 1986 where every candidate saved their deposit (and one of only two since the threshold for retaining the £500 deposit was set at 5% in 1985, not counting the special circumstances of the 15 Northern Ireland by-elections of 1986), the fact that the Ryedale by-election only had 3 candidates notwithstanding.