The British general election, part 5-overall conclusions

All things considered, what are the top five conclusions that can be drawn from the results of the 2024 United Kingdom general election?

1. The British electoral and political system is at breaking point and needs to be reformed, fast. This election, according to the Gallagher Index of proportionality, was the most disproportional in the history of British suffrage, and reminiscent of the fragmentation New Zealand's Parliament underwent in the mid-1990s which caused it to eventually switch to (mixed member) proportional representation for its legislative elections, which it first used in 1996 and has used ever since. Britain is becoming a true multiparty state slowly but surely, with both Labour and the Conservatives not only having reached the lowest combined vote since 1922, but also the lowest combined number of seats at 533 (counting the Speaker as Labour). For the first time ever in England, there are as many as 5 parties with more than 1 seat apiece, and 6 colours of rosettes if you count Independents as having grey rosettes. It is clear that proportional representation is needed in Britain, and that first past the post will bring anything but political stability if it continues to be used in British elections.

2. Despite all the media coverage of "boomers vs millennials vs Generation Z" on various issues, it is in fact Generation X who remain dominant in Parliament, with the "Boomer" generation rapidly disappearing. Although much news has been made of the first Generation Z MPs entering Parliament, the majority of MPs were born in the late 1960s, 1970s, or early 1980s and thus belong to Generation X, although there are an increasing number of Millennials as well. Only a small minority from the "Boomer" generation (born between 1945 and 1960) remain, with so many having stood down or having been defeated at this election. Sir Roger Gale (born 1943 and an MP since 1983, first for North Thanet and now for Herne Bay & Sandwich) is now the only remaining MP to have been born before the end of World War II (Sir Bill Cash, Barry Sheerrman, and Dame Margaret Beckett retired, and Sir Peter Bottomley lost his seat).

3. Although the diversity in Parliament does not quite reflect the population of the latest British census, it is catching up. The proportion of MPs educated at comprehensive schools reached its highest proportion ever, 66%, although this still means MPs are three times as likely to have attended a private or grammar school as the general population. Only 3 Old Etonians remain, namely Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown (North Cotswolds), Jesse Norman (Hereford & South Herefordshire), and Danny Kruger (East Wiltshire), with for the first time in the history of British universal suffrage not a single Old Etonian entered Parliament for the first time. Female MPs are at a record high, as are MPs from an ethnic minority background and MPs from mixed ethnicity backgrounds. However, the number of MPs with a significant disability only marginally increased from 2019, despite people with disabilities being more adversely affected than most during the COVID-19 pandemic and cost of living crisis.

4. Political disengagement cannot be solved simply with more candidates coming forward. There were a record number of candidates standing at this election, 4,515, with no seat having fewer than 5 candidates, but turnout did not improve-in fact it decreased to the second lowest on record since universal suffrage began. Not only that, but of the constituencies whose turnout figures were in the bottom 10 in 2019, counting close predecessors, 2 (Hull East and Liverpool Riverside) also had turnout figures in the bottom 10 in 2024, with the other 8 in the bottom 20. Turnout decreased even in constituencies won by Independents, the Green Party or Reform UK (and in some cases by an amount exceeding the national average of a 7.6% decrease in turnout) showing that an increasing choice and more diverse Parliament is not enough to solve the problem of political disengagement, especially in a world increasingly driven by factors beyond the control of national governments.

5. Whilst much has been said in the media about the long-term impact of Brexit since Britain left the EU in January 2020, Britain has now come to accept its future outside the EU. Whilst a perceived mishandling of Brexit was a significant factor in the change of government, especially in the northern and Midlands regions of England, governmental scandals and a perceived failure to tackle the cost-of-living crisis effectively, not to mention environmental crises like sewage flowing onto British beaches were arguably greater factors in the election result, even in constituencies with a particularly high Remain or Leave vote in the EU referendum. The fact that minor and avowedly pro-European parties concentrating on that issue above all others failed to make any significant impact is further evidence that Britain is moving on from Brexit.