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Showing posts from March, 2022

My analysis of British local by-elections from 24 March 2022

Readers, the results of British local by-elections that occurred on 24 March 2022 were as follows: Horsham DC, Denne : Liberal Democrats 832 (46.0%, -5.8%), Conservative 628 (34.7%, -0.1%), Labour 241 (13.3%, +0.0%), Green 107 (5.9%). Northumberland UA, Seghill with Seaton Delaval : Conservative 702 (55.6%, +1.1%), Labour 511 (40.5%, -5.1%), Green 29 (2.7%), Liberal Democrats 21 (2.3%). Test Valley DC, North Baddesley: Liberal Democrats 1,095 (63.9%, -6.9%), Conservative 618 (36.1%, +6.9%) Thanet DC, Nethercourt : Labour 505 (55.5%, +18.6%), Conservative 230 (25.3%, -1.5%), Thanet Independents 175 (19.2%). [Greens and UKIP did not stand] The next local elections are now just six weeks away, and the result in Seghill with Seaton Delaval-two former pit villages made famous by the folk song "Blackleg Miner"-is a telling sign that despite Conservative woes Labour is still somewhat struggling to regain ground in former strongholds, although many of these are affected by demograph...

My analysis of the 2022 South Australian state election

  In the run-up to the next Australian federal election, which must take place this autumn, South Australia held its 2022 state election. which resulted in the Liberal-led government of Steve Marshall enduring a resounding defeat by Labor, led in South Australia by Peter Malinauskas.  Labor increased their seat total to 26, giving them a 5-seat majority; whilst this is not a particularly high majority numerically it must also be noted that there are only 47 seats in the South Australian House of Assembly, and in terms of "two-party preferred" votes achieved a 7.1% swing against the Liberals.  Healthcare proved to be a key issue in this election, especially with half of Mr Marshall's term having been overshadowed by the coronavirus pandemic, and a decision to build a new stadium at a time when greater healthcare investment was definitely needed was a blunder on the Liberal government's part, and its lapse into minority status following criminal charges against two Sout...

My analysis of British local by-elections from the first fortnight of March 2022

  Readers, the results of British local by-elections held on 3 March and 10 March 2022 were as follows: (3/3/2022): East Lindsey DC, Halton Holgate: Conservative 306 (66.2%, +41.5%), Labour 156 (33.8%, +25.7%). Conservative gain from Independent. [No Independent candidates this time] Essex CC, Rayleigh North : Liberal Democrats 1,658 (57.4%, +12.3%), Conservative 929 (32.2%, -11.8%), Independent (Lawmon) 164 (5.7%), Labour 137 (4.7%, -6.1%) New Forest DC, Hythe West & Langdon: Liberal Democrats 559 (44.6%, -23.2%), Conservative 497 (39.7%, +7.5%), Labour 153 (12.2%), Matthew Kitcher 44 (3.5%). Rochford DC, Downhall & Roweth : Liberal Democrats 791 (71.5%, +9.5%), Conservative 265 (23.9%, -5.4%), Labour 51 (4.6%, -5.1%). All changes are since May 2021. Sevenoaks DC, Brasted, Chevening & Sundridge: Conservative 820 (58.7%, +7.9%), Liberal Democrats 524 (37.5%), Labour 52 (3.7%, -16.0%). [No Independent candidates this time] South Somerset DC, Neroche : Liberal Democrat...

Bonny Portmore, anti-HS2 version

  Last night, at a Green Party conference event, I sang this version of "Bonny Portmore" to mourn the loss of woodlands, and other natural habitats, to the white elephant that is HS2. Lyrics: O bonny Portmore, we are sorry to see Such a woeful destruction of your ornament tree For it stood on those forests for many a long day Till those HS2 workers brutally cut you away. O bonny Portmore, you shine where you stand And the more we think on you the more we think long If we had you now as we had once before All those bankers in London would not purchase Portmore. All the birds in the forest they bitterly weep Saying, "A dirty great railway line is no place we can sleep." All those poor woodlands, they are now gone for eternity Just so rich fools can cut ten minutes from their train journey. All the birds in the forest they bitterly weep Saying, "A dirty great railway line is no place we can sleep."

My analysis of the Birmingham Erdington by-election

  The results of the Birmingham Erdington by-election, caused by the tragic and sudden death of Jack Dromey, who had served as its Labour MP since 2010 and was also the husband of long-serving Labour MP Harriet Harman, were as follows: Robert Alden, Conservative, 6,147 (36.3%, -3.8%) David Bishop, Bus Pass Elvis Party, 8 (0.0%) Jack Brookes, Reform UK, 293 (1.7%, -2.4%)* Lee Dargue, Liberal Democrats, 173 (1.0%, -2.7%) Paulette Hamilton, Labour, 9,413 (55.5%, +5.2%) Siobhan Harper-Nunes, Green Party, 236 (1.4%, -0.4%) Clifton Holmes, Independent, 14 (0.1%) Michael Lutwyche, Independent, 109 (0.6%) Mel Mbdoniah, Christian Peoples' Alliance, 79 (0.5%) Dave Nellist, Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition, 360 (2.1%) Thomas O'Rourke, Independent, 76 (0.4%) The Good Knight Sir NosDa, Official Monster Raving Loony Party, 49 (0.3%). Labour HOLD. With Birmingham Erdington being semi-marginal (although the Conservatives have not won it, or an equivalent constituency, since 1936), this b...