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Showing posts from February, 2022

My analysis of British local by-elections from the last week of February 2022

Readers, the results of British local by-elections from 24 February 2022 (and one from 23 February 2022) were as follows: (23/02/22): Spelthorne BC, Stanwell North: Labour 605 (48.8%, +6.0%), Conservative 567 (45.7%, +7.6%), TUSC 69 (5.7%). [UKIP did not stand] (24/02/22): Castle Point DC, St Peter's: Conservative 502 (44.9%, +0.0%), Independent (Woodley) 439 (39.2%, -0.9%), Labour 173 (15.9%, +4.6%). [Liberal Democrats did not stand] Durham UA, Ferryhill: Labour 876 (41.3%, +6.7%), Independent (Newby) 528 (24.9%), Conservative 348 (16.4%, -16.6%), Independent (Makepeace) 166 (7.8%, -24.5%), Green 165 (7.8%), Freedom Alliance 28 (1.3%), Liberal Democrats 9 (0.4%). Labour gain from Independent. Lincolnshire CC, Colsterworth Rural: Conservative 986 (59.6%, -17.1%), Liberal Democrats 277 (16.8%), Labour 269 (16.3%, -6.9%), Green 121 (7.3%). Maldon DC, Wickham Bishop & Woodham: Conservative 361 (54.0%, -10.5%), Independent (Peatling) 161 (24.1%), Liberal Democrats 80 (12.0%), Labou...

My analysis of by-elections of 17 February 2022

Readers, the results of British local by-elections that took place on 17 February 2022 were as follows: Allerdale DC, Stainburn & Clifton: Labour 354 (54.6%, +25.2%), Conservative 294 (45.4%, +28.9%). Labour gain from Independent. [No Independent or Green candidates this time] Bristol UA, Southmead: Labour 780 (41.2%, -1.9%), Green 728 (38.5%, +20.8%), Conservative 279 (14.8%, -13.2%), Liberal Democrats 82 (4.3%, -4.9%), TUSC 22 (1.2%). Mid Suffolk DC, Thurston: Green 845 (64.4%, +28.5%), Conservative 399 (30.4%, -4.3%), Liberal Democrats 37 (2.8%, -8.3%), Labour 32 (2.4%, -5.9%). [No Independent candidates this time] Newark & Sherwood DC, Collingham: Conservative 982 (56.3%, +26.5%), Liberal Democrats 594 (34.1%, +18.8%), Labour 168 (9.6%). Conservative gain from Independent. [No Independent candidates this time] North East Lincolnshire UA, Park: Conservative 715 (38.8%, -14.0%), Labour 578 (31.4%, +6.7%), Liberal Democrats 478 (26.0%, +9.5%), TUSC 70 (3.8%, +1.3%). All change...

My analysis of British local by-elections from the first fortnight of February 2022 and the Southend West by-election

Readers, the results of British local by-elections from the first two weeks of February 2022 were as follows: (03/02/2022): Costwold DC, Campden & The Vale : Conservative 1,180 (56.2%, +13.3%), Liberal Democrats 920 (43.8%, +17.8%). [UKIP did not stand] Dacorum BC, Berkhamsted West : Liberal Democrats 924 (64.1%, +14.3%), Conservative 318 (22.1%, -5.5%), Green 130 (9.0%, -6.5%), Labour 69 (4.8%, -2.3%). Dacorum BC, Boxmoor : Liberal Democrats 1,319 (60.5%, +16.5%), Conservative 599 (27.5%, -5.4%), Labour 171 (7.8%, -4.4%), Green 92 (4.2%, -6.7%). Leicester UA, Evington : Labour 1,557 (38.8%, -15.0%), Conservative 1,382 (34.4%, +13.6%), Liberal Democrats 830 (20.7%, +12.0%), Green 200 (5.0%, -7.9%), For Britain 45 (1.2%). [Socialist Alternative aka TUSC did not stand] Manchester MBC, Ancoats & Beswick : Liberal Democrats 1,113 (53.2%, +31.0%), Labour 793 (37.9%, -20.6%), Green 119 (5.7%, -5.3%), Conservative 66 (3.2%, -5.2%). Liberal Democrat gain from Labour; all changes are si...

My analysis of the Portuguese general election of 2022

 The 2022 Portuguese general election which took place on Sunday was a clear victory for Antonia Costa as he secured a single party majority for the Socialist Party (PS) for the first time since multiparty democracy resumed in Portugal in 1975. It also marked a significant fracture for the Portuguese "right" as well as a sea change (or rather lake change). PS won 117 seats, an increase of 9 from 2019 and enough to give them a 4 seat majority, and PS topped the poll in all of mainland Portugal for the first time since 2003 and only on the island of Madeira did PS not top the poll. With Portugal using PR lists with no threshold and with seats determined by region, it is almost impossible for any party, even PS and PSD (the Social Democrats, actually a liberal-conservative party despite the name) to win a single party majority in the Assembly of the [Portuguese] Republic. PS' gains came mainly at the expense of the Left Bloc (BE) and Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU, compri...