Alan's Green Thoughts

By-elections are now regularly happening in England again, at long last. The results of the first batch of local by-elections in the United Kingdom that occurred after Super Thursday 2021 were as follows: (10/6/21): Waltham Forest LBC, Grove Green: Labour 1301 (58.4%, +1.4%), Liberal Democrats 541 (24.3%, +3.3%), Green 205 (9.2%, -3.0%), Conservative 142 (6.4%, +0.2%), TUSC 40 (1.8%, -1.8%).  Waltham Forest LBC, Lea Bridge: Labour 1176 (50.0%, -9.1%), Independent (Weiss) 441 (18.8%), Conservative 436 (18.6%, +10.4%), Green 181 (7.7%, -10.4%), Liberal Democrats 116 (4.9%, -1.2%). [TUSC and Duma Polska did not stand] (17/6/21): Aberdeenshire UA, East Garioch (1st preferences): Conservative 1240 (45.5%, +14.0%), SNP 963 (35.3%, +8.0%), Liberal Democrats 281 (10.3%, -8.2%), Green 130 (4.8%, -14.0%), Labour 111 (4.1%, +0.1%). Conservative gain from Liberal Democrats at stage 3. Kent CC, Elham Valley (deferred election): Conservative 1809 (50.1%, -4.2%), Green 1335 (37.0%, +24.6%), Labou...

 Readers, in case you are not already aware, the result of the Chesham & Amersham by-election was as follows: Carolyne Culver, Green Party, 1,480 (3.9%, -1.6%) Brendan Donnelly, Rejoin EU, 101 (0.3%) Peter Fleet, Conservative, 13,489 (35.5%, -19.9%) Sarah Green, Liberal Democrats, 21,517 (56.4%, +30.4%) Carla Gregory, Breakthrough Party, 197 (0.5%) Adrian Oliver, Freedom Alliance, 134 (0.4%) Natasha Pantelic, Labour, 622 (1.6%, -11.3%) Alex Wilson, Reform UK, 414 (1.1%) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative. The issues of HS2, which would cut right through the constituency if and when constructed, and the proposed Planning Bill (which would amongst other things allow developers to override the wishes of councils with respect to development in designated "growth zones"), were above all else responsible for the Liberal Democrats' gain of Chesham & Amersham on a 25.2% swing, and in a seat which since its creation in 1974 had never seen the Conservative vote share g...

  The 2021 election in the German Land of Saxony-Anhalt, which took place three days ago, showed a surprising turnaround for the CDU, whose popularity has been waning ever since Angela Merkel decided to retire as German chancellor effective from this year.  However, the Premier of Saxony-Anhalt, Reiner Haseloff, managed to strengthen his position and gain 10 seats for the CDU, all 40 of their total coming from Wahlkreis (single member constituencies). In fact the CDU won every single Walhkreis in Saxony-Anhalt except Zeizt in the south-east, which was won by the radical populist right AfD, although in polling 37.1% of the vote they were not entitled to list seats on top of those 40 constituency seats. Many of these seats were won on less than one third of the vote, particularly in the cities of Halle and Magdeburg, highlighting the importance of ensuring that there are enough list seats in an MMP system to balance out the constituency seats (this is not true in the Senedd's ca...

The recent revelations of Boris Johnson's former chief adviser, Dominic Cummings, about management of the pandemic inter alia , made headlines across the British media for days. By all rights, especially with two crucial parliamentary by-elections going on in Batley & Spen and Chesham & Amersham (with a Delyn by-election likely as well), this should be causing a serious leakage of Conservative voters to other parties and/or the possibility for greater abstention amongst Conservative voters. Is it? Let us look at polls that were taken shortly after Super Thursday: YouGov (11-12 May): Conservative 45%, Labour 30%, Liberal Democrats 7%, SNP 5%, Green 8%, Reform UK 2%, Plaid Cymru 1%, Others 2%. Redfield & Wilton Strategies (10 May): Conservative 45%, Labour 34%, Liberal Democrats 8%, SNP 4%, Green 5%, Reform UK 2%, Plaid Cymru 1%, Others 1%. Opininum (13-14 May): Conservative 44%, Labour 31%, Liberal Democrats 8%, SNP 5%, Green 7%, Reform UK 3%, Plaid Cymru 1%, Others 2%. ...