On the Croatian parliamentary election of 2020
Yesterday, Croatia held its 2020 parliamentary elections, and as with most elections this year the COVID-19 pandemic significantly reduced turnout because many voters around the world still do not feel safe going to the polls even when social distancing measures are tightly enforced in said poll. Consequently, turnout in this Croatian election dropped to 46.45%, the lowest in any Croatian election since Croatia gained independence from the now-defunct Yugoslavia; this mirrors the sharp drop in turnout in the second round of French local elections the week before, and the Polish presidential election's first round last month.
The perceived handling of the COVID-19 pandemic played a decisive factor in this election, allowing the conservative HDZ (Croatian Democratic Union), who were lagging behind the Social Democrat-led Restart Coalition in the year leading up to this election, to achieve a surprise victory, in alliance with the Croatian Liberal Party and the Croatian Demochristian Party, which allied with HDZ in 2016 as well. It recovered well in the opinion polls due to its perceived handling of the COVID-19 situation in Croatia, which whilst not receiving the international attention and praise New Zealand's handling did, certainly kept the COVID-19 numbers down. There have been only 3,220 cases of COVID-19 in Croatia from a population of approximately 5,000,000 and only 118 deaths, compared to 285,416 cases of COVID-19 and over 50,000 COVID-19 related deaths in the UK; the UK has a population of 66 million and rising but this represents a per capita rate of infection 3 times higher than that of Croatia's in this context, and furthermore the UK's death rate amongst COVID-19 cases is 65.9 per 100,000 people compared to Croatia's death rate amongst COVID-19 cases of 2.4 per 100,000 people. The HDZ coalition gained an extra 5 seats, pushing it up to 66, whereas because of not only renewed competence for the current Croatian government but also sharp turnout drops in more urban areas in particular, where COVID-19 infections spread more easily, the Restart Coalition lost 4 seats, going down to 41. They managed this in spite of criticism that the Croatian PM, Andrej Plenkovic, staged the election months before dissolution was necessary to avoid taking the blame for an economic crisis related to COVID-19; their failure to adequately resolve the earthquake damage in Zagreb cost them support there as well. After all, oppositions do not win elections-governments lose them to oppositions.
Other parties who supported the HDZ coalition did not fare so well, however. Most (Bridge of Independent Lists), which initially went into coalition with HDZ but left the government in 2017, lost 5 of its 13 seats and finished fourth; it was lucky not to be pushed into fifth place by the ecosocialist Green-Left alliance. The Croatian People's Party-Liberal Democrats fared even worse, losing all but one seat, which they won in electoral district III just north of the Croatian capital of Zagreb. In most of the other electoral districts they failed to poll even 1%. Milan Bandic's party, which supported the HDZ coalition, lost its only seat and polled a miserable 0.59%, partly because it only ran candidate lists in six of Croatia's ten electoral districts, which are mainly based on relatively equal populations but do take geography into account.
Following a trend towards nationalist conservative populism seen in most of Central and Eastern Europe, the Miroslav Skoro Homeland Movement (DPMS) took third place with 10.89% of the vote and 16 seats. However, green and progressive politics saw a substantial revival in Croatia with the Green-Left list winning as many as 7 seats and 7% of the vote, although this was heavily tilted towards Zagreb and more prosperous areas in the west of Croatia. In only half the electoral districts did they win seats, and their vote share in electoral district I (comprising Zagreb itself), 21.12%, was more than double their support anywhere else in Croatia, mainly due to We can!'s base being strongest in Zagreb by far, as well as because of the influence of the ecosocialist Zagreb is OURS! party; We can! won 5 of their 7 seats whereas the main green party of Croatia, ORaH, did not win any due to its candidates' placing on the list. The liberal Smart and Focus party won 3 seats, whereas Human Blockade, which emerged from an anti-eviction movement, polled just 2.26% and was eliminated from Croatia's Parliament, the Sabor, entirely. Each electoral district has 14 seats apiece, but a 5% threshold is imposed for each district. The People's Party-Pensioners coalition (Naradna stranka-Reformisti) won one seat in electoral district III but polled less than 1% in most of Croatia. Amongst smaller parties, the Croatian Labourists, once a significant socialist bloc in Croatia, participated in a coalition that failed to poll even 1% in any Croatian electoral district, and the wooden spoon went to Alphabet of Democracy, who polled just 219 votes despite fielding two candidate lists.
Mr Plenkovic does not face an easy task of forming a new government in Croatia by any means despite gaining 5 extra seats for his alliance. With the Bridge of Independent lists not being in a position to help form a new coalition nor willing to do so, Mr Plenkovic's only options are a grand coalition with the SDP-led Restart Coalition or a more conservative alliance with the aforementioned Mr Sorko and his DPMS.
The perceived handling of the COVID-19 pandemic played a decisive factor in this election, allowing the conservative HDZ (Croatian Democratic Union), who were lagging behind the Social Democrat-led Restart Coalition in the year leading up to this election, to achieve a surprise victory, in alliance with the Croatian Liberal Party and the Croatian Demochristian Party, which allied with HDZ in 2016 as well. It recovered well in the opinion polls due to its perceived handling of the COVID-19 situation in Croatia, which whilst not receiving the international attention and praise New Zealand's handling did, certainly kept the COVID-19 numbers down. There have been only 3,220 cases of COVID-19 in Croatia from a population of approximately 5,000,000 and only 118 deaths, compared to 285,416 cases of COVID-19 and over 50,000 COVID-19 related deaths in the UK; the UK has a population of 66 million and rising but this represents a per capita rate of infection 3 times higher than that of Croatia's in this context, and furthermore the UK's death rate amongst COVID-19 cases is 65.9 per 100,000 people compared to Croatia's death rate amongst COVID-19 cases of 2.4 per 100,000 people. The HDZ coalition gained an extra 5 seats, pushing it up to 66, whereas because of not only renewed competence for the current Croatian government but also sharp turnout drops in more urban areas in particular, where COVID-19 infections spread more easily, the Restart Coalition lost 4 seats, going down to 41. They managed this in spite of criticism that the Croatian PM, Andrej Plenkovic, staged the election months before dissolution was necessary to avoid taking the blame for an economic crisis related to COVID-19; their failure to adequately resolve the earthquake damage in Zagreb cost them support there as well. After all, oppositions do not win elections-governments lose them to oppositions.
Other parties who supported the HDZ coalition did not fare so well, however. Most (Bridge of Independent Lists), which initially went into coalition with HDZ but left the government in 2017, lost 5 of its 13 seats and finished fourth; it was lucky not to be pushed into fifth place by the ecosocialist Green-Left alliance. The Croatian People's Party-Liberal Democrats fared even worse, losing all but one seat, which they won in electoral district III just north of the Croatian capital of Zagreb. In most of the other electoral districts they failed to poll even 1%. Milan Bandic's party, which supported the HDZ coalition, lost its only seat and polled a miserable 0.59%, partly because it only ran candidate lists in six of Croatia's ten electoral districts, which are mainly based on relatively equal populations but do take geography into account.
Following a trend towards nationalist conservative populism seen in most of Central and Eastern Europe, the Miroslav Skoro Homeland Movement (DPMS) took third place with 10.89% of the vote and 16 seats. However, green and progressive politics saw a substantial revival in Croatia with the Green-Left list winning as many as 7 seats and 7% of the vote, although this was heavily tilted towards Zagreb and more prosperous areas in the west of Croatia. In only half the electoral districts did they win seats, and their vote share in electoral district I (comprising Zagreb itself), 21.12%, was more than double their support anywhere else in Croatia, mainly due to We can!'s base being strongest in Zagreb by far, as well as because of the influence of the ecosocialist Zagreb is OURS! party; We can! won 5 of their 7 seats whereas the main green party of Croatia, ORaH, did not win any due to its candidates' placing on the list. The liberal Smart and Focus party won 3 seats, whereas Human Blockade, which emerged from an anti-eviction movement, polled just 2.26% and was eliminated from Croatia's Parliament, the Sabor, entirely. Each electoral district has 14 seats apiece, but a 5% threshold is imposed for each district. The People's Party-Pensioners coalition (Naradna stranka-Reformisti) won one seat in electoral district III but polled less than 1% in most of Croatia. Amongst smaller parties, the Croatian Labourists, once a significant socialist bloc in Croatia, participated in a coalition that failed to poll even 1% in any Croatian electoral district, and the wooden spoon went to Alphabet of Democracy, who polled just 219 votes despite fielding two candidate lists.
Mr Plenkovic does not face an easy task of forming a new government in Croatia by any means despite gaining 5 extra seats for his alliance. With the Bridge of Independent lists not being in a position to help form a new coalition nor willing to do so, Mr Plenkovic's only options are a grand coalition with the SDP-led Restart Coalition or a more conservative alliance with the aforementioned Mr Sorko and his DPMS.
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