My analysis of British local by-elections in July
Readers, the results of British local by-elections from the last 3 weeks of July are as follows:
(11/7/19):
East Riding of Yorkshire UA, Bridlington North: Liberal Democrats 1308 (42.7%), Conservative 815 (26.6%, -43.7%), Yorkshire Party 349 (11.4%), UKIP 196 (6.4%), Labour 135 (4.4%, -25.3%), Independent (Dixon) 125 (4.1%), Independent (Robson) 76 (2.5%), Independent (Milns) 58 (1.9%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.
Herefordshire UA, Whitecross: It's Our County 304 (60.7%, +13.0%), Liberal Democrats 141 (28.1%, +10.5%), Conservative 58 (11.2%, -3.4%). [UKIP did not stand]
(16/7/19):
Cardiff UA, Cyncoed: Liberal Democrats 1920 (55.3%, +18.0%), Conservative 838 (24.1%, -12.8%), Labour 560 (16.1%, -1.0%), Plaid Cymru 152 (4.4%). [Greens did not stand]
(18/7/19):
Ashford BC, Downs North: Conservative 229 (37.4%, -10.0%), Green 190 (31.0%, +7.5%), Liberal Democrats 70 (11.4%, -7.3%), Ashford Independents 67 (10.9%), UKIP 22(3.6%), Labour 17 (2.8%, -7.5%), Independent 17 (2.8%).
Ceredigion UA, Llanbadarn Fawr Sulien: Plaid Cymru 186 (63.3%, -7.4%), Liberal Democrats 93 (31.6%, +15.6%), Labour 15 (5.3%, -3.8%).
Daventry DC, Brixworth: Liberal Democrats 817 (49.5%, +38.5%), Conservative 615 (37.3%, -27.8%), Labour 218 (13.2%, -10.7%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative; all changes are since May 2018.
Richmond-upon-Thames LBC, East Sheen: Liberal Democrats 1809 (58.9%, +13.0%), Conservative 1090 (35.5%, -12.9%), WEP 90 (2.9%), Labour 82 (2.7%, -3.0%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.
Wiltshire UA, Westbury North: Liberal Democrats 488 (52.4%, -5.6%), Independent (Cunningham) 231 (24.8%), Conservative 140 (15.0%, -14.0%), Labour 57 (6.1%, -6.9%), Independent (Moreland) 16 (1.7%).
(25/7/19):
Gloucester BC, Barnwood: Liberal Democrats 676 (46.5%, +15.1%), Conservative 496 (34.1%, -6.0%), Brexit 152 (10.5%), Labour 64 (4.4%, -6.9%), Green 59 (4.1%), UKIP 6 (0.4%, -11.2%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.
Gloucester BC, Podsmead: Liberal Democrats 203 (30.0%), Conservative 200 (29.6%, -18.5%), Labour 122 (18.0%, -33.9%), Brexit 111 (16.4%), Green 29 (4.3%), UKIP 11 (1.6%). Liberal Democrat gain from Labour.
Hartlepool UA, Hart: Labour 366 (30.5%, +1.3%), Independent Union 358 (29.8%), Green 196 (16.3%, +12.7%), For Britain 166 (13.8%), UKIP 114 (9.5%, -17.7%). [Independents and Conservatives did not stand]
There was also a by-election for the Northumbrian Police and Crime Commissioner post, which Labour narrowly won over an Independent, despite being 15.7% ahead on 1st preferences.
Yesterday's by-elections were the first local venture for the Brexit Party, and in comparison to their European election performance they flopped, finishing a poor third and fourth in the two Gloucester by-elections they contested. Both wards are key marginal in the city of Gloucester, and the supposedly surprising results reflect this. UKIP's derisory vote in both by-elections is a clear sign that the Brexit Party has made UKIP completely redundant, especially with Britain only three months away from Brexit as the situation currently stands.
This week, Boris Johnson became Prime Minister and Jo Swinson became the first female leader of the Liberal Democrats, but comparisons of local by-elections in the two weeks preceding the two in Gloucester and the one in Hartlepool show no evidence of a "Swinson bounce"; the Barnwood ward was already marginal between the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives and Podsmead could have had any plausible outcome, given that the Liberal Democrats won a Labour-Conservative marginal from nowhere. Furthermore, the clear Liberal Democrat gain in East Sheen, the wealthiest and safest Conservative ward in Richmond-upon-Thames, was a foregone conclusion given the highly educated pro-Remain demographic of Richmond-upon-Thames as a whole,
Having won their first two seats ever in Ashford, the Greens were unlucky to miss out on a third by just 39 votes in the Downs North by-election, although the rural Downs North ward was previously safely Conservative and there is a limit to how low the Conservative vote can go. This was ironically also shown in Bridlington where the ballot paper was much longer and where the Conservative vote splintered much more easily, although in this case the Liberal Democrats had not stood in May, whereas in May the Greens had stood in Downs North.
Electorally speaking, Labour has been faring poorly in the northeast port of Hartlepool for years, and a split in the pro-Brexit vote was what prevented their loss of the Hart by-election, where the Greens achieved one of their best ever results in the borough.
The summer is generally a quiet time for politics with Parliament going into recess from the last week of July to the first week of September, but this year is an exception, with next week playing host to the Brecon & Radnorshire by-election at a time when the current government's working majority could disappear soon.
(11/7/19):
East Riding of Yorkshire UA, Bridlington North: Liberal Democrats 1308 (42.7%), Conservative 815 (26.6%, -43.7%), Yorkshire Party 349 (11.4%), UKIP 196 (6.4%), Labour 135 (4.4%, -25.3%), Independent (Dixon) 125 (4.1%), Independent (Robson) 76 (2.5%), Independent (Milns) 58 (1.9%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.
Herefordshire UA, Whitecross: It's Our County 304 (60.7%, +13.0%), Liberal Democrats 141 (28.1%, +10.5%), Conservative 58 (11.2%, -3.4%). [UKIP did not stand]
(16/7/19):
Cardiff UA, Cyncoed: Liberal Democrats 1920 (55.3%, +18.0%), Conservative 838 (24.1%, -12.8%), Labour 560 (16.1%, -1.0%), Plaid Cymru 152 (4.4%). [Greens did not stand]
(18/7/19):
Ashford BC, Downs North: Conservative 229 (37.4%, -10.0%), Green 190 (31.0%, +7.5%), Liberal Democrats 70 (11.4%, -7.3%), Ashford Independents 67 (10.9%), UKIP 22(3.6%), Labour 17 (2.8%, -7.5%), Independent 17 (2.8%).
Ceredigion UA, Llanbadarn Fawr Sulien: Plaid Cymru 186 (63.3%, -7.4%), Liberal Democrats 93 (31.6%, +15.6%), Labour 15 (5.3%, -3.8%).
Daventry DC, Brixworth: Liberal Democrats 817 (49.5%, +38.5%), Conservative 615 (37.3%, -27.8%), Labour 218 (13.2%, -10.7%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative; all changes are since May 2018.
Richmond-upon-Thames LBC, East Sheen: Liberal Democrats 1809 (58.9%, +13.0%), Conservative 1090 (35.5%, -12.9%), WEP 90 (2.9%), Labour 82 (2.7%, -3.0%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.
Wiltshire UA, Westbury North: Liberal Democrats 488 (52.4%, -5.6%), Independent (Cunningham) 231 (24.8%), Conservative 140 (15.0%, -14.0%), Labour 57 (6.1%, -6.9%), Independent (Moreland) 16 (1.7%).
(25/7/19):
Gloucester BC, Barnwood: Liberal Democrats 676 (46.5%, +15.1%), Conservative 496 (34.1%, -6.0%), Brexit 152 (10.5%), Labour 64 (4.4%, -6.9%), Green 59 (4.1%), UKIP 6 (0.4%, -11.2%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.
Gloucester BC, Podsmead: Liberal Democrats 203 (30.0%), Conservative 200 (29.6%, -18.5%), Labour 122 (18.0%, -33.9%), Brexit 111 (16.4%), Green 29 (4.3%), UKIP 11 (1.6%). Liberal Democrat gain from Labour.
Hartlepool UA, Hart: Labour 366 (30.5%, +1.3%), Independent Union 358 (29.8%), Green 196 (16.3%, +12.7%), For Britain 166 (13.8%), UKIP 114 (9.5%, -17.7%). [Independents and Conservatives did not stand]
There was also a by-election for the Northumbrian Police and Crime Commissioner post, which Labour narrowly won over an Independent, despite being 15.7% ahead on 1st preferences.
Yesterday's by-elections were the first local venture for the Brexit Party, and in comparison to their European election performance they flopped, finishing a poor third and fourth in the two Gloucester by-elections they contested. Both wards are key marginal in the city of Gloucester, and the supposedly surprising results reflect this. UKIP's derisory vote in both by-elections is a clear sign that the Brexit Party has made UKIP completely redundant, especially with Britain only three months away from Brexit as the situation currently stands.
This week, Boris Johnson became Prime Minister and Jo Swinson became the first female leader of the Liberal Democrats, but comparisons of local by-elections in the two weeks preceding the two in Gloucester and the one in Hartlepool show no evidence of a "Swinson bounce"; the Barnwood ward was already marginal between the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives and Podsmead could have had any plausible outcome, given that the Liberal Democrats won a Labour-Conservative marginal from nowhere. Furthermore, the clear Liberal Democrat gain in East Sheen, the wealthiest and safest Conservative ward in Richmond-upon-Thames, was a foregone conclusion given the highly educated pro-Remain demographic of Richmond-upon-Thames as a whole,
Having won their first two seats ever in Ashford, the Greens were unlucky to miss out on a third by just 39 votes in the Downs North by-election, although the rural Downs North ward was previously safely Conservative and there is a limit to how low the Conservative vote can go. This was ironically also shown in Bridlington where the ballot paper was much longer and where the Conservative vote splintered much more easily, although in this case the Liberal Democrats had not stood in May, whereas in May the Greens had stood in Downs North.
Electorally speaking, Labour has been faring poorly in the northeast port of Hartlepool for years, and a split in the pro-Brexit vote was what prevented their loss of the Hart by-election, where the Greens achieved one of their best ever results in the borough.
The summer is generally a quiet time for politics with Parliament going into recess from the last week of July to the first week of September, but this year is an exception, with next week playing host to the Brecon & Radnorshire by-election at a time when the current government's working majority could disappear soon.
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