My analysis of British local by-elections from 4/7/19 (and one from 27/6/19)

Readers, the results from British local by-elections from 4/7/19, as well as one from 27/6/19, were as follows:

(27/6/19):

Mansfield DC, Sandhurst: Mansfield Independent Forum 227 (42.7%, +9.0%), Labour 177 (33.3%, -8.3%), Conservative 71 (13.4%, -8.9%), UKIP 56 (10.5%). Mansfield Independent Forum gain from Labour [Liberal Democrats did not stand].

(4/7/19):

Chorley BC, Ecclestone & Mawdesley: Conservative 1055 (63.2%, +9.0%), Labour 611 (36.8%, +3.8%). All changes are since this May. [UKIP did not stand]

Middlesbrough UA, Park End & Beckfield: Independent (Hill) 511 (53.0%), Independent (James) 303 (31.4%), Labour 115 (11.9%, +0.1%), Conservative 23 (2.4%, -1.6%), Liberal Democrats 13 (1.3%). Independent gain from another Independent.

Rhondda Cynon Taff UA, Rhondda: Plaid Cymru 404 (42.1%, +16.6%), Labour 266 (27.1%, -15.1%), Conservative 145 (15.1%, +0.9%), Liberal Democrats 127 (13.2%, -4.4%), Communist 18 (1.9%). Plaid Cymru gain from Labour.

Wiltshire UA, Trowbridge Drynham: Liberal Democrats 431 (41.6%, +28.4%), Conservative 316 (30.5%, -35.8%), Independent (Knight) 246 (23.7%), Labour 44 (4.2%, -16.3%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.

Apart from in  Chorley and Rhondda, local independent candidates played a crucial part in the contests. In Wiltshire, an Independent who failed to acquire the Conservative nomination for the by-election fatally split the Conservative vote although amidst Remain fever and who could succeed Vince Cable as leader of the Liberal Democrats, the Liberal Democrats more than trebled their 2017 vote share to win the seat on a 31.7% swing. However, the deceased Conservative councillor, Graham Payne also had a strong personal vote in the town of Trowbridge for whom he had been a councillor in 1976.

In the former industrial towns of Mansfield and Middlesbrough, local Independents have established themselves firmly, to the point where in Middlesbrough the two Independent candidates won 84.4% of the vote between them. Many Conservative and Liberal Democrat voters there tactically vote for them to stop Labour regaining control of Middlesbrough, which accounts for the particularly low Conservative and Liberal Democrat vote shares in that by-election. The Conservatives were likewise squeezed in Mansfield by the Mansfield Independent Forum, who they ironically cost several seats and largest party status in Mansfield just two months ago.

Over in Rhondda ward, actually in Pontypridd rather than in the Rhondda Valley or the Rhondda parliamentary constituency, Plaid Cymru's gain of the seat is primarily down to a combination of dissatisfaction with Labour's stance on the EU, the successful candidate Eleri Morgan's strong local ties to Pontypridd and a long-term increase in the Welsh-speaking population in the Rhondda Valley, especially close to Cardiff.

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